905
FXUS62 KGSP 021816
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
216 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered along the East Coast through
Wednesday. Conditions will be mostly dry with the exception of
mountain and foothill showers and storms returning on Wednesday. A
weak cold front approaches from the northwest on Thursday and may
bring another round of showers and storms to the area. Temperatures
remain below seasonal normals through Thursday. An upper ridge may
build eastward from Texas over the weekend resulting in a warming
trend until Sunday when another cold front brings cooler
temperatures into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1:55 PM EDT Tuesday: We`re currently seeing a few patches
of showers over northern Swain and Haywood Counties with more
widespread shower activity to our W and NW. Activity over the
NC mtns may increase marginally into the evening, but any sig-
nificant increase in shower coverage likely won`t happen until
overnight. Increasing cloud cover over the mtns should help keep
low temps about a category warmer early Wednesday compared to
today, but still about a category below normal for early Sept.

Otherwise, the eastern half of the CONUS will remain under very
broad upper trofing thru the near-term period and beyond. Another
upper shortwave will move thru the longwave trof axis tonight and
support lingering mid clouds and sct precip across the mtns once
again. At the sfc, the weak wedge pattern over our area will gra-
dually dissipate thru the period as the sfc high weakens and shifts
further NE. The 850mb flow will become more SWLY across the NC mtns
later tonight/overnight, adding a weak upslope component and increa-
sing the shower potential. There is some weak instability in the
model profiles, but I`m not confident it will be enough to produce
any lightning over our fcst area tonight/overnight. Tomorrow we will
likely see better shower/tstorm coverage across the mtns and into
the foothills as the upper shortwave provides additional support.
Over the Upstate and Piedmont, precip chances tomorrow appear mini-
mal again. Temps will continue to warm on Wednesday, but highs are
still expected to remain below climatology, especially over the mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 113 PM Tuesday: The trend of the model guidance is toward
lifting the upper low from the upper Great Lakes north toward Hudson
Bay on Wednesday night and Thursday. and as a result, it is looking
less like an approaching sfc front will make it across the mtns in
spite of some decent-looking mid/upper forcing. The main concern
for Thursday will be the severe weather threat. The new model runs
show less of a push and keep the front to the northwest through
the day. Only the NAMNest goes out far enough to give clues, and
it supports the idea that precip probs would be limited to the
area N/W of I-85, but a little more expansive than what the NBM
shows, so precip chances have been extended into the NW Piedmont
zones. The better shear and buoyancy is expected to stay on the
west side of the mtns, but at this point severe storms will not
be ruled out, especially in northwest NC. Temps ahead fo the
boundary will rise back to normal for Thursday. The passage of
a short wave will take the forcing with it, leaving the front to
the northwest for Friday, and keeping a brisk WSW low level flow
of warm advection. Friday looks dry, with temps climbing another
five degrees or so, above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1249 PM Tuesday: The forecast from Saturday onward seems
to be more and more of a slowly moving target as the guidance is
having trouble with the movement/timing of the large upper low
over eastern Canada over the weekend, and the evolution of what
remains of what is currently TS Lorena in the eastern Pacific. The
trend has been toward putting the center of the upper low farther
north with each run, which results in less troffing over our region
over the weekend, and thus less of a southward push for the second
sfc front. Thus, it`s looking more likely that a clean pass won`t
happen and the boundary, such as it is, will get hung up across the
region at least on Saturday and Sunday, possibly into Monday. There
would be enough modest instability across the mtns on Saturday to
account for some thunderstorm activity, though the better shear
would remain to the west and northwest, minimzing the severe storm
potential. Precip chances are trending back upward for the back
half of the weekend, though still below 30 pct across most of the
region. Temps also don`t cool off quite as rapidly on Sunday as
well. So, we continue to carry high temps on Saturday that are on
the order of 5-7 degrees above normal, but the dropoff to Sunday
is merely back to right around normal. The model blend continues
to favor a dropoff below normal for Monday and Tuesday, but the
model trend suggests that perhaps that is too low. By Tuesday,
confidence drops way off as the forecast guidance might not be
properly taking into account the fate of what becomes of the east
Pacific tropical system. The operational GFS is most bullish with
bringing a return of moisture from the southwest, but the ECMWF
is much more muted with a strong high to our northeast. For now,
a token chance is carried over the southern half, but that could
easily go either way.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions thru the 18z taf
period. The only exception will likely be at KAVL, where there
is a decent chance that they will see restrictions overnight/
tomorrow morning. Thus, at KAVL I have prevailing MVFR restric-
tions beginning around 08z, with a TEMPO for IFR/LIFR from 09 to
13z. They could see periods of VLIFR, but my confidence wasn`t
high enough to include at this time. As for precip, chances are
currently too low to mention at any taf sites except at KAVL and
to a lesser extent KHKY, where I have a combination of VCSH and
PROB30s. Otherwise, expect a mix of lower to high VFR clouds thru
the evening with a decrease in cloud cover overnight and into the
morning outside of the mtns. Winds will remain NELY outside of the
mtns today and eventually go light and VRB to calm later tonight.
They will eventually toggle around to S/SW by the end of the taf
period tomorrow aftn. At KAVL, winds will remain light and VRB to
calm thru tomorrow morning. They will eventually favor a SLY direc-
tion by the early aftn tomorrow.

Outlook: At least sct aftn/evening convection will be possible
across the higher terrain on Thursday with chances diminishing
again on Friday. Nocturnal fog and/or low stratus will also be
possible overnight and into the morning, especially in the favored
mtn valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPT