158
FXUS62 KGSP 272352
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
652 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure builds in through Saturday. A cold front arrives
Sunday with a secondary low pressure system on Tuesday. Most of the
rain is expected Monday night and Tuesday. Dry high pressure returns
on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 650 PM EST Thanksgiving Evening...

Key Messages:

1) Dry Weather Continues

2) Gusty NW Winds Linger Across the Mountains

3) Cold Night Ahead with Temps Falling Below Freezing

4) Chilly Friday with Well Below Normal Highs Expected

Upper troughing remains overhead tonight before lifting northeast
early Friday morning, leaving cyclonic flow behind for the remainder
of the near term. At the sfc, cool and dry high pressure builds into
the Southeast from the north/west through the period.

Tonight will be even colder than last night, with lows dropping
below freezing across the forecast area. Lows will range from the
mid 20s to lower 30s east of the mountains, with the teens to mid
20s across the mountains. Although clear skies are expected for most
locations through the near term, some cirrus (or even stratocu) may
develop along the NC/TN border later this evening into early Friday
afternoon. Some of this cloud cover could spill into the valleys at
times. Gusty NW winds will continue across the mountains through the
overnight hours. Gusts are expected to remain below advisory
criteria.

Friday will be cooler with temps expected to run ~8-14 degrees below
normal. Highs east of the mountains will range from the lower 40s to
lower 50s, with the upper 20s to lower 40s across the mountains.
Gusty NW winds will linger across the mountains throughout the
morning hours before gradually diminishing Friday afternoon and
evening. Low-end, intermittent gusts may return east of the
mountains late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon. Min RHs are
expected to fall near or below 30% Friday afternoon leading to low-
end fire weather concerns. An SPS for Increased Fire Danger may be
needed NE GA on Friday. Clear skies will come to an end as cirrus
gradually increases late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1210 pm EST Thanksgiving Day: A long wave trough over the
East will be reinforced by an upper speed max that will move from
the Rockies at the start of the period, through the southern
Great Plains on Saturday, before lifting to the eastern Great
Lakes by the end of the period. A frontal zone attending these
height falls will bring the next chance of precipitation to our
forecast area Sat night into Sunday. With a cool/dry air mass
in place in advance of the frontal forcing...and considering the
overnight/early morning timing, wet bulb effects materializing from
falling precip could result in a brief period of in-situ cold air
damming, with some potential for a transient wintry mix...mainly
in the typically coldest locations during CAD regimes. I.e.,
along the eastern escarpment of the Blue Ridge and in some higher
elevation areas. The relative weakness of the damming setup along
with generally light precip amounts will preclude significant accums
of wintry precip, but a minor freezing rain/advisory event can`t be
ruled out. Otherwise, with deep forcing passing well north of the
area, and weak-at-most moisture flux into the CWA, the pattern
for this event has the appearance of a weakening/dissipating
frontal band progressing across the CWA...such that likely PoPs
are reserved for the western half...with general 30-40% chances
to the east. Otherwise, temperatures will remain well below normal
through the period...by 10 degrees or more.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 pm EST Thanksgiving Day: The upper pattern will remain
active into the extended period, with the global deterministic
models in good agreement that the next region of height falls
will progress from the Great Basin at the start of the period to
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday. A Miller-A synoptic
pattern is expected to evolve across the Southeast Monday
night/Tuesday, with deterministic and ensemble guidance supporting
likely-to-categorical PoPs across the forecast area by Tue morning,
with forcing and moisture profiles indicating a more significant
precip-maker for the CWA (compered with this weekend`s event). With
1025+ mb high pressure forecast to be centered across the Great
Lakes as the forcing and moisture arrive, another round of cold air
damming is likely to develop. Although the supporting surface high
will be stronger and in a more favorable position for CAD...the
transient nature of the high suggests a strong in-situ or hybrid
event...and so locking in cold air for a long enough duration to
support significant accumulations of wintry weather may be a
difficult proposition. Nevertheless, at least a transient period of
wintry weather...with freezing rain likely being the predominant
precip type appears likely in the usual areas along the Blue Ridge
escarpment and some high elevation locations.

Conditions will dry out and warm up for the latter half of the
extended, as heights rise across the Southeast downstream of
West Coast height falls...with any precip chances associated with
speed maxima ejecting from the West likely to hold off for our area
until the end of next week. Temperatures will remain below normal
through the period...albeit with highs moderating from 10+ degrees
below climo Mon/Tue...to around 5 degrees below normal by Thursday.
Min temps will be near-to-slightly below normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Wind
direction will generally be WNW to NW across the terminals. Gusty
winds will linger at KAVL through late Friday afternoon before
gradually tapering off early Friday evening. Intermittent low-end
gusts may return east of the mountains by late Friday morning or
early Friday afternoon, mainly at KCLT. Skies will remain clear
through late Friday afternoon, although KAVL could see some cirrus
or even stratocu develop briefly overnight. Cirrus will gradually
increase towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook: Dry and VFR through Saturday. Rain chances return Sunday,
bringing the next chance for flight restrictions. Drier conditions
return briefly Monday before rain chances, and associated flight
restrictions, return Tuesday. Drier conditions return Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...AR