Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
235 FXUS62 KGSP 101012 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 612 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry high pressure lingers over the region today with below normal temperatures sticking around. A coastal develops off the Southeast United States and lifts northward towards the Outer Banks this weekend. This system may bring rain to the western North Carolina Piedmont and eastern South Carolina Upstate this weekend before dry conditions return next week. A warming trend develops Sunday into Tuesday with above normal temperatures returning after Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1200 AM Friday: A southern stream shortwave trough and associated closed upper low will continue to slide across Georgia today and towards the southeast coast by tomorrow morning. At the surface, sprawling high pressure centered over New England will gradually shift offshore with surface ridging extending down the spine of the Appalachians. Meanwhile, an inverted surface pressure trough resides along the southeast coast in the vicinity of a coastal baroclinic zone. Height falls overspreading the coast will help induce surface cyclogenesis just off the central Florida coast late in the period tonight. Widespread precipitation within the inverted trough will remain well to our east today with dry northerly flow persisting across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. The far outer cloud shield associated with the developing coastal cyclone will spread inland with increasing cloud cover especially along and east of I-77. The surface pressure gradient will also remain tight between the surface ridging and coastal cyclone which will continue to foster gusty winds through the near term period. Otherwise, temperatures will remain below average today and tonight with daytime highs in the mid to upper 60s and overnight lows falling into the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1230 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Warming Trend Begins Over the Weekend 2) Rain Chances Increasing for the Eastern Third of the Forecast Area 3) Breezy NE Winds Continue East of the Mountains through Sunday Main change to the forecast compared to this time yesterday is that both the high-res and global models are trending more westward with the coastal low off the Southeast United States this weekend. Thus, the NBM now has chance PoPs mainly along and near the I-77 corridor Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. PoPs may need to be increased and expanded farther west if this westward trend continues. For what it`s worth, the 00Z NAMNest shows rain making it to the mountains by daybreak Sunday. However, confidence on rain making it that far west remains low, especially with the 00Z HRRR not going out that far yet. Breezy NE winds linger east of the mountains through Sunday before gradually diminishing Sunday night as the coastal low lifts NE away from the Carolinas. A warming trend develops this weekend but highs Saturday will end up near normal to just below normal before above normal highs return Sunday. Lows through the period will end up a few to several degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1230 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Warming Trend Continues through Tuesday 2) Temperatures Remain Above Normal 3) Dry Conditions Return The coastal low remains near the Mid-Atlantic coast through early next week before pulling away from the eastern United States. Meanwhile, dry high pressure builds in from the north throughout next week allowing dry conditions to return. A dry and weak cold front looks to track across the forecast area in the middle of next week, with very little fanfare. Warming trend continues through Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday with slightly cooler highs on Thursday. Both highs and lows will remain several degrees above normal through most of the period. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at most terminals. Mid- and high-level clouds continue to stream into the area from the east with cloud cover expected to increase in coverage through the day. Ceilings will remain VFR, however, with no impacts expected. Heading into tonight, moisture pooling in mountain valleys may result in a return of early morning valley fog, especially any sheltered valleys. Thus, initial mention of fog has been included at KAVL. Otherwise, gusty northeast winds will continue again through the daytime hours with gusts gradually subsiding this evening. Outlook: Dry and generally VFR conditions prevail this weekend aside from the possibility of valley fog/stratus near daybreak and a small chance of low impact SHRA Saturday night near KCLT. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...TW SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...TW