757
FXUS62 KGSP 072328
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
728 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Quiet weather through tonight.
2. Relatively dry and warm temps through midweek. Temps increase
for the second half of the week, with a return of daily chances
of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Quiet weather through tonight.

Well defined upper trough is present off the Atlantic coast while
a deep upper ridge is centered in the Plains. At the surface,
high pressure centered over the Great Lakes this afternoon extends
down the Eastern Seaboard in wedge-like fashion. Expecting mostly
clear skies tonight aside from the possibility of some mountain
valley fog/stratus, or upslope clouds near the Escarpment with
continuing easterly flow.


Key message 2: Relatively dry and warm temps through midweek.
Temps increase for the second half of the week, with a return of
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The axis of the deep upper ridge pivots eastward Tuesday, as a
trough moves across the northern Plains and Prairie Provinces,
leaving a broad anticyclone across the southern half of the
CONUS by midweek. The surface high shifts off the East Coast in
response. Though onshore low-level flow may result in a bit of cloud
cover late tonight or late Tuesday night, profiles will be subsident
and dry and precip chances very low through Wednesday. Under mainly
sunny daytime skies the airmass will modify such that temps return
to about normal Tuesday, and slightly above normal Wednesday as
light southwest flow is reestablished.

Subtle upper height falls do look to begin Wednesday night
into Thursday as the axis of the Canadian trough reaches the
Great Lakes and upper MS Valley. Diurnal convection again looks
plausible, at least over the mountains, as temperatures and
humidity trend still higher. A few ensemble members still show
some diurnal showers/storms developing Thursday afternoon/evening
in the Deep South, primarily to our southwest; the signal for the
trough to interact with the old frontal boundary appears weaker,
and accordingly PoPs have trended lower Thu for our southern
zones. There does appear consensus for the front to stretch
out in a zonal orientation across the southern Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic circa Friday, as the parent trough progresses across
New England and offshore. The best overall chance of showers/storms
appears that day. Another trailing weak shortwave does appear in
most model output, which may result in a wave developing along
the front near or west of the CWA. Thus it looks like the front
more or less stalls for the weekend and airmass change appears
unlikely. Hot and muggy conditions, and above-average convective
coverage, persist Friday through Sunday. Temperatures should run
a few degrees above normal. A few lower Piedmont locations Friday
may see heat index top out near 100, with HI in the upper 90s
otherwise likely along and south of I-85 then through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mostly VFR conditions expected through the
TAF period. Overnight, valley fog could bring KAVL down to IFR fo
3/4SM vsby and low stratus, so a TEMPO in effect 10z-14z. Winds
remain light out of the NE/E at all sites. KHKY/KCLT could become
VRB, but still light. Cigs remain SKC to SCT/FEW250.

Outlook: Dry and VFR through Wed outside of morning mountain valley
fog and low stratus. Restrictions could return by Thursday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CP/JCW