027
FXUS62 KGSP 090606
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
106 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence remains low regarding possible wintry precipitation this
weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry weather and a warming trend continues through Tuesday.
2. Above normal temperatures continue with rain chances returning
late Tuesday before brief drying develops Wednesday night into
Thursday.
3. Below normal high temperatures and precipitation chances return
Friday into the weekend ahead of a low pressure system. Depending
on how much cold air builds into the region ahead of this system,
wintry precipitation may return across portions of the forecast
area, but confidence remains very low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Dry weather and a warming trend continues through
Tuesday.

Broad deep-layer northwest flow breaks down Monday as the mean upper
trough shifts well offshore. At the same time, a flat upper ridge
builds across the Southern Plains into the Southern Appalachians
with heights rising into Tuesday. Temperatures rebound Monday with
highs climbing into the upper 40s to upper 50s. An even more notable
warmup occurs Tuesday as the core of cold air gets shunted offshore
and stout warm advection ramps up. 850mb temperatures warm to near
11 C, which would support afternoon highs in the mid 60s to low 70s
across much of the area. This will be one of the warmest days since
the warm spell in early January.


Key message 2: Above normal temperatures continue with rain chances
returning late Tuesday before brief drying develops Wednesday night
into Thursday.

A cold front will track across the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, bringing precipitation
chances back to the area. The "bad" news is that global models
remain at odds regarding how much moisture will be available with
this front, which means that it`s possible that not all locations
will see precipitation. The good news is that temperatures should
remain warm enough for rain for any locations that do see
precipitation develop. For now, it appears that the mountains will
have the best chance to see rain late Tuesday into early Wednesday,
per the latest global guidance. How much rain will survive east of
the mountains on Wednesday is questionable. The 00Z NAM and GFS show
dry conditions east of the mountains while the 18Z ECMWF and 00Z
Canadian show some moisture surviving east of the mountains on
Wednesday. Thus, confidence on PoPs east of the mountains on
Wednesday will be lower than usual due to these model discrepancies.
Surface high pressure will build into the region behind the
departing front late Wednesday into Thursday, allowing drier
conditions to briefly return. Above normal temperatures will stick
around through Thursday. Lows Tuesday night will end up ~15-20
degrees above normal ahead of the front, becoming ~4-8 degrees above
normal Wednesday night behind the front. Highs on Wednesday will end
up ~7-12 degrees above normal, becoming ~3-6 degrees above normal on
Thursday behind the front.


Key message 3: Below normal high temperatures and precipitation
chances return Friday into the weekend ahead of a low pressure
system. Depending on how much cold air builds into the region ahead
of this system, wintry precipitation may return across portions of
the forecast area, but confidence remains very low at this time.

Dry high pressure will continue to build into the region from the
north while the center tracks southeastward late Thursday into at
least early Friday. The 00z GFS and 18Z ECMWF depict moisture
returning as early as Friday afternoon as the aforementioned cold
front reactivates and lifts northward across the Deep South on
Friday. Both models show precipitation lingering through Saturday.
Meanwhile, the 00Z Canadian has the sfc high building into the
region through Saturday keeping dry conditions around. How far south
this high builds as well as how far north the reactivated front
lifts will determine how quickly PoPs will or will not return Friday
into Saturday. Stuck with NBM chance PoPs for now as confidence
remains low. The surface high appears to retreat north and east
Saturday into Sunday ahead of a low pressure system approaching out
of the southwest. Per the 00 GFS and 18Z ECMWF, this system will act
to keep precipitation chances around through late Sunday while the
00Z Canadian has precipitation chances returning Saturday night into
Sunday in association with this system. Although timing differences
continue between the global models, precipitation returning this
weekend looks like a good bet. Thus, opted to stick with NBM likely
PoPs Saturday into Sunday.

The main forecast challenge will be precipitation types Friday into
the weekend. The latest NBM came in with rain as the dominate p-type
for locations outside the northern and central North Carolina
mountains. Wintry p-types in the form of snow or freezing rain are
possible across the northern and central North Carolina mountains at
times Friday into the weekend. Still want to stress that confidence
on wintry p-types as well as the exact location of wintry p-types
remains low at this time. If temperatures trend cooler (warmer) then
we could end up with more (less) widespread wintry p-types. How warm
or cold temperatures will actually be remains to be seen and will be
highly dependent on the exact track and strength of both the surface
high and surface low pressure system.

The NBM is still on board with below normal temperatures returning
Friday into the weekend. Afternoon temperatures for most locations
each day will only reach into the mid 40s to lower 50s leading to
highs ~3-8 degrees below normal. However, lows each night are
expected to remain ~3-7 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Light primarily ENE winds thru daybreak
though some periods of calm are likely at all sites; KCLT also may
see periods of ESE, so went VRB03KT there. Stratus around FL080
looks to maintain cig over KCLT and KHKY until after dawn. The other
terminals will see FEW-SCT clouds in various layers at FL060-150
early this morning, increasing in numbers 11-14z. Any cigs however
should be VFR. Winds probably will turn SE in the early part of
the day then veer to SW for the afternoon and early evening, if
not going calm again tonight. FEW-SCT midlevel clouds at 100-150
persist this aftn/tonight.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions Mon night and early Tue. Moisture
will return during the middle part of the week, which could
result in light rain and some ceiling restrictions late Tuesday
into Wednesday. A second period of light precip and restrictions
could return Friday into next weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

AR/JCW/TW