019
FXUS62 KGSP 012312
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
612 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures have increased slightly for the latter half of the week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Cold air damming will gradually weaken over our area, allowing
temperatures to warm back above normal over the next few days.
2. Rain chances return during the latter half of the week as a
moist frontal system moves through our area from the west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Cold air damming will gradually weaken over our area,
allowing temperatures to warm back above normal over the next
few days.

A cold air damming pattern will linger across the western Carolinas
tonight and into Monday, but will steadily weaken as its parent
surface high, now centered near Long Island, slowly moves off
the Mid-Atlantic Coast. An embedded mid/upper level shortwave
approaching from the west has been providing some amount of
isentropic lift up and over the wedge producing bands of sct light
showers over our fcst area today. Generally weak lift along with
a dry sub-cloud layer has resulted in minimal amounts of precip
reaching the ground so far today with most of the rain falling as
virga. Locations that do receive rainfall thru tonight will likely
get little more than a few hundredths of an inch.

As the sfc high drifts further east over the next couple of days,
the CAD pattern will dissipate. Nonetheless, a weakening ridge
axis will maintain some degree of ELY low-level flow across our
area into mid-week. Shower chances diminish later tonight and into
Monday as upper support and upglide diminishes over our area. This
will result in dry weather thru at least Tues evening. Temperatures
will steadily warm each day, with high temps expected to be at
least 5 degrees above normal by Tues.


Key message 2: Rain chances return during the latter half of the
week as a moist frontal system moves through our area from the
west.

A complex upper pattern will set up over the CONUS by mid-week
with an omega block developing over the western/central CONUS,
and a downstream ridge building along the East Coast. At the sfc,
a moist occluded front will gradually approach our area from the
west early Wednesday, and slowly make its way thru the area over
the next 24 to 48 hours. In response, PoPs increase to at least
likely across the western half of our fcst area by late Wednesday
and peak early Thursday. Most of the current guidance still has
some amount of weak instability ahead of the frontal boundary
within a modestly sheared environment. However, weakening occluded
fronts such as this one typically do not have very favorable
dynamics for producing severe weather and/or excessive rainfall.
Nonetheless, a minimal threat still appears to exist.

Otherwise, precipitation chances dwindle late in the work week as
the frontal boundary moves further east and continues to weaken.
Slight chance to chance PoPs do linger thru Friday, but any precip
amounts should be minimal after Friday morning. Little temperature
change is expected behind the front, with above normal temperatures
continuing into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR continues for the 00Z TAF period.
Thick cirrus and altostratus will continue to stream across the area
tonight atop a defined surface wedge, generally above 5 kft but with
some potential for lower ceilings to develop tonight into Monday
morning...especially at the Upstate sites.  Flight restrictions look
unlikely, if perhaps not completely out of the question.  NE winds
should continue through the period, except at AVL where they`ll
be channeled to the SE by the French Broad Valley.  BKN to OVC VFR
altostratus looks to remain in place across the region on Monday,
with some improvement to SCT sky cover possible Monday afternoon
and evening...but this will be brief, if it happens at all.

Outlook: Mostly dry, VFR conditions should continue through
Tuesday. Rain and associated restrictions are expected to return
during the middle of the week. With ample cloud cover expected
over the next few days, mountain valley fog should be limited.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

JPT/MPR