972
FNUS72 KGSP 172032
FWSGSP

Spot Forecast for Icewater Spring Shelter...Great Smoky Mountains NPS
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
432 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1700 EDT on July 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are ongoing across the Smoky Mountains as of 420 PM
Friday. There is very little flow in the atmosphere to steer storms
in any particular direction, though there should be a slight preference
for new storms to form on the north side of any existing/dissipating
shower or storm. Crews this evening will need to be prepared to shelter
from thunderstorms. Torrential rainfall (possibly resulting in as much
as 2 inches of rain in one hour) and cloud-to-ground lightning
will be the primary threats, but storms also may produce brief gusts
of 40 to 50 mph. Showers and storms should diminish around sunset.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers with
                    thunderstorms likely.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Chance of thunder...60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........76 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds, except for gusty and erratic winds
                    near thunderstorms.
Ceiling (FT)........1500.
Visibility (SM).....10.

TIME (EDT)      5PM
Sky (%).........91
Weather cov.....DEF
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).80
Chc of thdr (%).60
Temp............68
RH..............96
Aparnt tmp (F)..68
Surface wnd dir.W
Surface wnd spd.3
Surface wnd gst.6
Ceiling (hft)...15
Visibility (sm).10

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Decreasing clouds overnight. Showers and
                    thunderstorms ending by 10 PM.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Chance of thunder...60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Winds near 5 mph.
Ceiling (FT)........As low as 1900 ft near thunderstorms.
                    Generally above 8000 ft otherwise.
Visibility (SM).....Likely unlimited except when heavy rain is
                    nearby.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........90  89  87  72  69  48  41  40  33  43  34  37
Weather cov.....LKY LKY SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY CHC SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).70  60  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0
Chc of thdr (%).60  50  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0
Temp............67  66  65  64  63  63  63  63  63  62  62  62
RH..............93  95  96  97  97  100 100 100 100 100 100 99
Aparnt tmp (F)..67  66  65  64  63  63  63  63  63  62  62  62
Surface wnd dir.SW  SW  W   SW  W   SW  N   SE  SW  W   NW  W
Surface wnd spd.3   3   5   3   3   3   3   5   3   3   5   3
Surface wnd gst.6   7   8   8   8   8   8   7   7   7   7   7
Ceiling (hft)...19  23  84  250 110 81  95  110 250 95  64  34
Visibility (sm).9   10  10  10  9   9   9   9   8   8   7   7

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers and
                    storms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Chance of thunder...60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........84 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Ceiling (FT)........Generally 1500 to 3000 feet, possibly lower
                    during thunderstorms.
Visibility (SM).....Generally unlimited but possibly as low as
                    1 mile during thunderstorms.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........35  43  37  40  63  63  71  71  76  82  78  76
Weather cov.....            SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  20  30  50  60  60  60  70  70  60
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   10  10  20  30  40  40  50  60  50  50
Temp............61  62  62  62  66  67  68  68  69  70  69  68
RH..............99  99  100 100 97  95  90  86  86  84  89  89
Aparnt tmp (F)..61  62  62  62  66  67  68  68  69  70  69  68
Surface wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Surface wnd spd.3   3   3   5   6   6   5   6   6   6   7   7
Surface wnd gst.7   7   7   7   8   9   9   9   9   10  10  12
Ceiling (hft)...29  24  19  27  34  42  9.0 9.0 9.0 25  42  58
Visibility (sm).7   7   8   9   9   10  10  9   10  10  10  10

$$
Forecaster...JCW
Requested by...Mike Gries
Type of request...SAR
.TAG 2617612.0/GSP
.DELDT 07/17/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0