Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
734 FXPQ50 PGUM 250840 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 640 PM ChST Tue Jun 25 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the Marianas. Ritidian buoy shows seas near 5 feet. && .Discussion... Not much expected over the next several days for the Marianas. A fairly dry trade-wind pattern looks to remain in place across the region, with little rainfall expected. Models continue to show moisture profiles and QPF trending down, so backed off slightly on cloud cover for the end of the week, pushing mostly cloudy skies to Friday night. Latest GFS does show a possibility for low-end scattered showers across Guam Friday night, though this is an outlier, with others showing only isolated showers and possible increased cloudiness. Will wait to see if the other models come into sync with the GFS before increasing shower coverage. && .Marine... Expect moderate to fresh trade winds with a potential for occasional strong gusts tonight. Winds look to decrease starting Wednesday, becoming gentle to moderate by the weekend. Seas of 5 to 7 feet tonight will begin to slowly subside by Wednesday morning, dropping to between 4 and 5 feet for the weekend. && .Eastern Micronesia... Convergence along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) continues to generate pockets of moderate to deep convection, mainly north of Majuro, Kosrae, and Pohnpei. Both the ECMWF and GFS model solutions continue to show the ITCZ will fragment into individual trade-wind troughs by tomorrow before dissipating and transitioning into a trade-wind pattern across the region by this weekend. For early next week, models show another ITCZ building westward from the International Date Line by early next week, bringing bouts of showers and thunderstorms to Majuro. Gentle to moderate trades and combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will persist through at least Friday, before seas drop 1 to 2 feet this weekend across the region. && .Western Micronesia... The Near Equatorial Trough (NET) with embedded weak circulations continues to linger south of Yap and Palau, generating pockets of moderate to deep convection along and north of the trough axis. A broad surface trough over Yap State will continue to move westward, impinging on the NET, generating periods of showers and thunderstorms at Palau, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected at Yap through tomorrow. Models show the NET meandering south of Yap and Palau with individual troughs impinging on the NET generating bouts of showers and thunderstorms at Yap and Palau through early next week. For Chuuk, convergence along the ITCZ just east of Weno will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through tonight. The ITCZ is expected to fragment by tomorrow, with individual trade-wind troughs pushing over Chuuk, generating bouts of showers and thunderstorms through early next week. Expect slightly elevated winds for Palau tonight due to heavy showers and converging surface winds. Otherwise, expect gentle to moderate trades and benign seas at Yap, Palau and Chuuk through at least the weekend. Seas may increase one to two feet at Chuuk and Palau as a slightly elevated easterly trade swell moves across this region during the latter part of the week. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Kleeschulte Micronesia: Kelly