Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
076 FXPQ50 PGUM 190752 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 552 PM ChST Wed Jun 19 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Gentle to moderate trades prevail in the region, with isolated showers moving across the waters. Ritidian buoy indicates seas are about 4 feet. && .Discussion... A seasonal trade-wind pattern is in store for the Marianas through the middle of next week, with a slight uptick in showers expected Friday night into Saturday as a minor disturbance lifts farther north from eastern Micronesia. Gentle to moderate trades might occasionally become fresh early next week. && .Marine... Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet are expected through the weekend. There will be a moderate risk of rip currents along east facing reefs of the Marianas through at least Monday, while remaining low along all other reefs. && .Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk... An enhanced region of trade convergence with a passing trade trough is pushing away from Kosrae and Pohnpei and heading towards Chuuk. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms for Chuuk and scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms for Pohnpei through tomorrow. Isolated to low-end scattered showers for Kosrae and Majuro. For late week into the weekend, expect generally scattered showers with a fluctuating trade convergent zone with embedded trade troughs and surges in trade winds. A Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough (TUTT), currently over the northern Marshall Islands, will drift westward towards the Marianas during this time and may help enhance showers and thunderstorm potential, but the better upper- level support seems to be a bit too far north of the islands. A more defined trade trough/surge looks to cross the Date Line and push into Majuro late weekend, and then towards Kosrae, Pohnpei and Chuuk early next week. In addition, the ITCZ looks to build back in the region, keeping shower and thunderstorm potential a bit elevated. Combined seas of 4 to 5 feet are expected across the region through Thursday night. Seas look to increase 1 to 2 feet by the weekend at Majuro and early next week for Kosrae, Pohnpei and Chuuk as the trade swell looks to strengthen. Besides stronger wind gusts near showers and thunderstorms, winds will remain gentle to moderate this week, except moderate to fresh at times for Majuro. && .Western Micronesia for Palau and Yap... A monsoon trough is bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for Yap and especially Palau. Showers could become numerous at times for Palau Thursday and Thursday night. As the monsoon trough shifts northwestward and ridging builds in, showers will become isolated to low-end scattered for Yap tomorrow and Palau Friday. Ridging weakens over the weekend and a surface trough pushes in, with shower potential increasing. As the trough shifts west early next week, convergent flow will increase over Yap and Palau, further enhancing shower and thunderstorm potential. Light to gentle winds and combined seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected through Saturday. Winds and seas may increase slightly late weekend into next week, especially for Yap, as the ridge shifts west and trade winds and swell tick up. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Montvila Micronesia: Slagle