953
FXPQ50 PGUM 140758
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
558 PM ChST Fri Aug 14 2026

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite and radar show mostly sunny skies with little to no
showers across the Marianas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across
the waters. Altimetry shows seas between 5 and 8 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
A dry pattern will remain over the Marianas through tonight. To the
north, Invest 93W was downgraded to medium by the Joint Typhoon
Warning Center (JTWC), and is expected to move northeast to east-
northeast. As 93W progresses, convection to the west of the Marianas
looks to progress eastward, increasing POPs (Probability of
Precipitation) across the Marianas. This batch of showers is
expected to move through over the weekend, with a brief dry period
returning for Monday. Then, Invest 92W, currently north of Kosrae, is
expected to approach the region. As of now, most of the models agree
that Invest 92W will move through as only a weak disturbance, or
possibly a weak tropical depression, with only the GFS and ECMWF
deterministic models showing a stronger system. Therefore, it looks
like a wetter pattern is in store for the Marianas Tuesday through
most of the week, with gusty winds in showers. Invest 92W will
continue to be monitored closely for any changes to expected
development.

&&

.Marine/Surf...
Latest WaveWatch model guidance shows the west swell has subsided
enough to allow surf to fall below hazardous levels along west
facing reefs, also resulting in the rip current risk dropping to
moderate. Therefore, the High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current
Risk statement were both allowed to expire at 4 PM this afternoon.
Seas and wind look to continue to slowly subside over the next few
days.

&&

.Tropical Systems...
A broad, weak circulation, Invest 92W, is centered north of Kosrae
near 8.7N 161.7E, within broad troughing extending SE from north of
Weno, Chuuk to beyond the Equator near 175E. 92W is moving slowly
west and remains sub-low, meaning no development is expected over
the next few days. 92W, along with the trough, is producing heavy
convection across Chuuk, Pohnpei, and Kosrae States. Invest 92W will
continue to move west-northwest over the coming days with little or
no change in intensity. As of now, most of the models agree that
Invest 92W will move through the Marianas as only a weak disturbance,
or possibly a weak tropical depression, with only the GFS and ECMWF
deterministic models showing a stronger system. The trough looks to
strengthen a bit over the coming days and the monsoon trough may
reestablish farther south along this trough over the next week or so.

A more organized circulation, Invest 93W, is centered south of Iwo
To near 22.3N 140.7E and is moving east-northeast. 93W was downgraded
to medium by JTWC, meaning development into a significant tropical
cyclone is likely, but beyond the next 24 hours. Satellite shows a
compact Low-Level Circulation Center (LLCC) with increasing
convection near the center. The latest ASCAT analysis shows fresh to
strong winds around the circulation with stronger winds seen a bit
farther south in the monsoonal flow. Conditions remain favorable for
development of Invest 93W, with weak vertical wind shear, good upper-
level outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. This has been a
favored location lately for development of weak, short-lived tropical
cyclones moving northeast.

For more information on Invest 93W, please see bulletins issued by
JTWC under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW and WTPN21 PGTW.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Invest 92W continues to meander north of Kosrae with little change in
intensity. Moderate to strong northwesterly convergence west of 92W
continues to induce numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
across Pohnpei and Kosrae. Model guidance indicates intensification
of the westerly convergence beginning early next week, so widespread
locally heavy showers, isolated thunderstorms, and gusty winds are
possible for Pohnpei and Kosrae. A Special Weather Statement (SPS)
was issued to address the heightened flooding and mudslide potentials
at least through Wednesday.

Majuro remains on the outskirts of the unsettled weather pattern, so
scattered showers and on-and-off isolated thunderstorms are
forecasted through next week. Swell heights will hover 3 to 4 ft,
shifting from the southeast to the southwest over the course of the
forecast period. Light to gentle southerly winds will shift to the
west through early next week, eventually ending up northerly around
midweek should 92W move away to the north-northwest.

A High Surf Advisory is in effect for south-facing reefs of Kosrae
through early Tuesday morning. In the event that the south swell
remains elevated, the advisory may need to be extended. Although
there are no current WWAs in effect for Pohnpei, marine interests
should stay updated with the forecast and heed local emergency
management advice as the swells build through the middle of next
week.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Satellite imagery shows isolated showers and partly cloudy skies
across Palau and Yap, and cloudy skies with widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms across Chuuk. Altimetry and buoy data show
combined seas are between 3 and 6 feet.

The forecast for Palau and Yap remain dominated by the surface high
pressure that is located south of Palau. Both Palau and Yap look to
remain within divergent surface flow through the weekend and into
early next week. This will keep weather conditions dry for the next
few days. Towards the middle to latter half of next week, a broad
monsoon pattern looks to develop across the region, associated with
Invest 92W. This would put Palau and Yap within convergent flow,
leading to a significant increase in shower and thunderstorm
coverage.

The convergent surface flow associated with Invest 92W is currently
bringing widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to Chuuk.
Models show Invest 92W meandering slowly north of Pohnpei over the
coming days, keeping Chuuk within the convergent flow. This will lead
to heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding and mudslide concerns.
An SPS has been issued for Chuuk to cover the threat for heavy
rainfall and gusty winds. Uncertainty increases next week as some
guidance shows Invest 92W organizing east of the Marianas, cutting
off the monsoon flow. This keeps convergent surface winds over Chuuk
allowing for additional heavy rainfall to continue. The forecast next
week strongly depends on the evolution and positions of Invest 92W.

Combined seas are generally between 3 and 6 feet across the region.
Benign seas are expected for Palau and Yap through the period. Choppy
seas are expected across Chuuk through the period due to showers and
thunderstorms and the nearby tropical disturbance. At this time,
Chuuk is expected to remain below winds and seas hazardous to small
craft.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas/Tropical Systems: Kleeschulte
East Micronesia: Mesa
West Micronesia: Williams