Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
555 FXPQ50 PGUM 242058 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 658 AM ChST Tue Jun 25 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Satellite shows partly cloudy to partly sunny skies and isolated showers moving through the Marianas Waters. The Ritidian buoy reveals combined seas of 4 to 6 feet, composed mainly of a 3 to 5 foot east swell and wind waves. && .Discussion... A dry-season like trade-wind regime will continue to dominate the Marianas for the rest of this week. Next week, the weather could get a little more interesting... the monsoon trough is going to make an appearance in Palau and Yap state. That will work mightily to move us toward wet season...and a tropical cyclone cannot be ruled out. Of course, it can`t be ruled in either, not at this early juncture, let alone where it would track. We`ll have to watch as this scenario begins to unfold, and look for signs of increasing confidence in some of the myriad solutions that will be out there. && .Marine... The waves have not grown quite as much as previously depicted in the wave models; however they are only inches short, so it wasn`t any kind of big miss. And they could still grow those last several inches, maybe they`re just delayed a little. By Thursday, waves will start to diminish a little, and by Saturday, winds will start to gradually diminish as well. Overall, benign marine conditions will continue to dominate. && .Eastern Micronesia... A convergent trade-wind pattern is expected to bring patchy showers to Pohnpei and Kosrae for much of the forecast period. Majuro will encounter much more pleasant weather the next several days, before an ITCZ-like fragment moves in, bringing in on-and-off showers during the weekend. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet may start to taper down by early next week, as trade swell and winds start to diminish. && .Western Micronesia... The Near Equatorial Trough (NET) lingers near Palau and Yap and is generating pockets of moderate to deep convection. Trade convergence and a broad surface trough is seen west of Chuuk and moving into Yap`s region. This is generating pockets of moderate to deep convection from Chuuk to east of Yap. Forecast remains pretty much unchanged, with scattered showers for Yap and numerous showers for Koror today, with isolated thunderstorms. Chuuk is expected to remain under a trade convergence pattern with scattered showers through at least tonight. Another increase in shower potential looks likely around Friday as a similar weather pattern develops and moves through. Expect slightly elevated winds for Palau tonight due to heavier showers and converging surface winds. Other than that, expect gentle to moderate trades and benign seas through most of the week. Seas may increase one to two feet later in the week as a slightly elevated easterly trade swell moves across the region. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Stanko Eastern Micronesia: Montvila Western Micronesia: Hong