345
FXPQ50 PGUM 090837
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
637 PM ChST Sun Nov 9 2025

.Marianas Synopsis...
Diffusive trades prevail across the region. Satellite imagery and
Doppler radar indicate clearing skies over the horizon. Altimetry
passes and buoys show seas are 5 to 7 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
After a leading edge of an extensive surface trough brings low-end
scattered showers to the Marianas overnight, much more pleasant
weather brought by a drier trade-wind regime is still expected for
much of the week, as most of the regional convection will be limited
to Micronesia south of 10N. Gentle, diffusive winds are developing,
allowing moisture to drop slightly over the coming days. For most
folks, this might be noticed as AC units working a little more
efficiently than usual, or the late afternoon walks becoming a little
more comfortable.

&&

.Marine...
Gentle to moderate trades will prevail across the Marianas for
much of this week. Combined seas of 5 to 7 feet, comprised of a
easterly swell, northerly swell, and westerly swell from distant
Typhoon Fung-wong (32W), are expected to persist for several
days while varying in strength throughout the week. A moderate risk
of rip currents is expected along west, north, and east facing reefs
of the Marianas for at least the next few days. Surf is expected to
be elevated but remain below hazardous levels along all reeflines for
much of this week. As various swells (trade swell, northerly swell,
westerly swell) begin to diminish, surf may drop enough to allow the
rip current risk to drop to low along east and west facing reefs
before Friday.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
The main feature of interest is a surface trough that denotes the
leading edge of increased surface convergence within the ITCZ
(Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. Currently, this feature stretches
from south of Kosrae to east of Majuro. This trough will continue
westward through the week, with increasing moisture values expected
to develop due to moisture pooling within the ITCZ. Then, upstream
troughs currently east of the Date Line move in and act as a focus
for the latter half of the week. Thus, scattered showers and isolated
will continue this week for Kosrae and Majuro, while developing at
Pohnpei Monday, also continuing through much of this week.

Seas and surf will continue to decrease slightly, as the surf has
already started the downward trend. As such, seas of 4 to 6 feet can
be expected this week. Moderate to gentle winds will also decrease
into the light to gentle range towards mid-week, before potentially
increasing slightly by the weekend.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Satellite imagery shows isolated showers across Palau and Yap this
evening with a mid-level cloud deck starting move over Yap but still
east of Palau. Further east, a weak trough is passing through
western Chuuk State, while Chuuk Lagoon is experiencing partly cloudy
skies and isolated showers. However, just to the east of Chuuk,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is developing along the
northern edge of a weak trough moving along the equator. This area of
convection is expected Chuuk Lagoon by midnight and likely
continuing into Monday as the trough passes south of Chuuk. ASCAT
and 925-850 mb streamline analysis suggest a minor ridge- like
pattern in western Micronesia in the wake of TY Fung wong. This
pattern will help to keep showers isolated and weaken winds at Palau
and Yap, with winds becoming variable at times before shifting
towards the northeast as the trade- wind flow returns. Light winds
may trigger some island-effect convection at Palau during the peak
heating hours of Monday, but given the ridge-like pattern kept,
showers isolated but left the potential for isolated thunderstorms
at Palau. Over the next few days, model guidance suggest a broad and
weak circulation will develop in the region and progress westward,
likely developing within the trough currently passing just north of
the equator just south-southeast of Chuuk this evening. Models
currently favor the circulation passing south of the main islands,
with convergent flow north of the circulation will help to support at
least scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms across Palau, Yap,
Chuuk by the middle of the week. If the circulation shifts northward
slightly then numerous showers will be possible at times at Palau
and Chuuk. As the circulation shifts westward, an overall wet patter
will continue at Palau and Yap through the week, while Chuuk may see
periods of drier weather around Thursday before a passing trade-wind
trough increases the potential for showers once again around Friday.

Altimetry data suggest seas are around 6 to 8 feet around Palau and
Yap and 6 to 7 feet around Chuuk. Palau and Yap are still experience
an elevated west swell, but slowly weakening westerly swell from
distant TY Fung-wong so the High Surf Advisory for surf around 7 to
10 feet along north and west facing reefs and minor coastal
inundation is still valid through Monday afternoon. The west swell is
expected to become more northwest and decrease enough to allow high
surf and the risk of coastal inundation to end by Monday night. For
Chuuk, the tide prediction shows the high tide peaked Friday and
Saturday and has started to decrease and will continue to decrease,
marking the end of this King Tide cycle. The risk of coastal flooding
during high tide is subsiding for vulnerable shorelines, so the
Coastal Flood Statement was allowed to expire. A elevated north to
northeast swell will move through the region by the middle of the
week, but surf is not expected to rise above hazardous levels of 9
feet along north facing reefs at this time.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Montvila
East Micronesia: Doll
West Micronesia: Schank