359
FXPQ50 PGUM 060805
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
605 PM ChST Sat Dec 6 2025

.Marianas Synopsis...
Gentle to moderate easterlies prevail today. Satellite imagery and
Doppler radar indicate shallow trade-wind showers moving across Guam
and Rota waters. Buoys and recent altimetry passes show seas are
about 5 to 7 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
A diffusive trade-wind pattern will continue to bring mostly
uneventful weather the next few days, followed by the arrival of a
trade-wind surge that will bring breezy conditions beginning around
midweek. Showers will remain minimal for several more days after,
followed by minor shearline fragments that may bring a little more
gusty showers and cloudiness toward the end of next week.

&&

.Marine...
Significant northerly swells generated by distant synoptic systems
are producing hazardous surf and a high risk of rip currents along
north facing reefs of the Marianas. As such, a High Surf Advisory
and High Rip Current Risk Statement are valid through Sunday
afternoon. Surf is then likely to fall below hazardous levels
thereafter as this pulse in northerly swell diminishes, which will
also allow rip current risk to drop to moderate along said reefs.
Combined seas of 6 to 8 feet are expected to taper down a foot by
Sunday night, as the seasonal trade swell and secondary northeasterly
swell weaken slightly.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Satellite observations show isolated showers across Pohnpei and
Majuro and scattered showers across Kosrae. Altimetry data shows
combined seas of 8 to 10 feet across Majuro, and 6 to 8 feet for
Pohnpei and Kosrae.

A buffer circulation developed south of Kosrae overnight, which
enhanced convergence over Kosrae leading to numerous heavy showers
early this morning. The buffer circulation has weakened through the
day and the better convergence has shifted south and west of Kosrae.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger through the
evening before decreasing to isolated showers overnight. Quiet
conditions look to continue for Pohnpei and Majuro. Low-end (30%)
scattered showers will be possible for Pohnpei tomorrow and showers
decrease to isolated for the next several days. Showers look to
remain isolated for Majuro through much of next week as well.

A significant trade-wind swell is impacting eastern Micronesia this
weekend. Combined seas are between 8 to 10 feet across Majuro and 6
to 8 feet across Pohnpei and Kosrae. Seas are expected to rise
another 2 feet or so tonight and into Sunday. Conditions are
expected to become hazardous to small craft for Pohnpei Sunday
morning and should persist until early Monday morning. An easterly
swell of 5 to 7 feet is forecasted for tonight at Pohnpei. As the
trade-wind swell moves in, the swell direction is expected to become
more northeast. With a 8 to 9 foot northeast swell expected by
Sunday, surf will become hazardous for north and east facing reefs.
A north swell is currently in place but remains below 3 feet. The
north swell is expected to increase tomorrow, helping to make surf
hazardous.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Satellite this afternoon shows a fairly dry regime across much of
western Micronesia. Scattered showers are seen to the north of Chuuk,
associated with shallow troughing at the surface and supported by
strong upper-level east-northeasterlies and associated divergence
aloft. Skies are mostly cloudy over Palau, from prior deep
convection to the southeast and left over from island-effect showers
earlier this afternoon. For Yap and Chuuk, skies are partly cloudy
with few to isolated showers over coastal waters.

A dry trade-wind pattern looks to persist across the region through
the remainder of the weekend and next week with little variation in
showers and wind strength. The Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) extends
east-southeast across the region, passing just south of Koror, and
remains convectively quiet along and north of the axis. Models
indicate showers could build slightly near Palau and Yap early Monday
as a weak trade-wind trough propagates west into the area along the
northern periphery of the NET.

Altimetry data indicates combined seas around 5 to 7 feet across the
region. The Coastal Flood Advisory at Chuuk was allowed to expire at
5 PM ChST with high tides on the diminishing end of the latest King
Tide cycle, and with no reports of minor coastal inundation over the
last few days. However, slightly elevated north swell and building
trade swell will maintain elevated surf along north and east facing
reefs of Chuuk over the next few days, and occasional minor coastal
splash-over will be possible near high tide times. The High Surf
Advisory and Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for north-
facing reefs of Palau and Yap as the elevated north swell will
persist longer for these locations. Seas will diminish slightly
across the region toward the end of next week as the north and trade
swells relax. Winds will remain light to moderate throughout the
forecast period, becoming mostly moderate for Yap and Chuuk from
Sunday onward.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for GUZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Sunday for GUZ001.

MP...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for MPZ001>003.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Sunday for MPZ001>003.

Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Montvila
Eastern Micronesia: Williams
Western Micronesia: DeCou