Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
893 FXPQ50 PGUM 100818 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 618 PM ChST Mon Nov 10 2025 .Marianas Synopsis... Light to gentle trades prevail. Doppler radar indicates conditions fitting for an outing to see the beautiful sunset. Seas are 5 to 8 feet. && .Discussion... A drier trade-wind pattern will continue for at least the next several days. A chance for clearer skies suitable for stargazing, is coming up in the second half of the week, most notably Thursday night or Friday night. && .Marine... Combined seas of 5 to 8 feet, comprised of a weakening easterly swell, strengthening northerly swell, and persistent westerly swell, are expected to persist for several days while varying in strength throughout the week. While seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels, seas will continue to be choppy as these swells continue to mix. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along west, north, and east facing reefs of the Marianas for at least the next few days. Surf is expected to be elevated but remain below hazardous levels along all reefs for much of this week. As various swells (trade swell, northerly swell, westerly swell) begin to diminish, surf may drop enough to allow the rip current risk to drop to low along east and west facing reefs before Friday. && .Eastern Micronesia... A pair of troughs will be the focus this week. The first trough is departing Kosrae and approaching Pohnpei, giving scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to both. Then upstream from there, another trough is bringing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms to Majuro. These two features will keep at least scattered showers in the forecast this week, except at Kosrae where shower coverage may briefly drop back to isolated Tuesday night. otherwise, the active convective pattern continues. As for seas, they look to hold in the 4 to 6 foot range. Winds will be light to gentle through Thursday most of the time, becoming gentle to moderate towards the weekend area-wide. && .Western Micronesia... Partly cloudy skies and isolated showers extend Palau and Yap due to the influence of ridge-like pattern that was created in the wake of distant TY Fung-wong and slowly shifting westward. Near the Equator, centered near 3N145E, a broad and elongated circulation is noted in visible satellite imagery, with the CIMSS 850-500 mb analysis showing a broad area of vorticity over the area. A subtle trough extends northwest from the circulation up toward Yap Proper, and model guidance support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing along this trough and near Yap late tonight and then extending towards Palau on Tuesday. For by Chuuk, convergent flow and passing trade-wind troughs are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Chuuk, with numerous and heavy showers located between 5N and the Equator. Over the next few days, model guidance shows the elongated circulation moving westward and remaining south of 5N, with convergent flow north of the circulation supporting an overall wet pattern across Palau, Yap, and Chuuk over the next few days. As the circulation shifts westward, the overall wet patter will continue at Palau and Yap through the end of the week, while Chuuk will see a brief decrease in showers Thursday before passing trade-wind troughs increases the potential for showers once again around Friday and into the weekend. Altimetry data suggest seas are around 6 to 8 feet around Palau and Yap and 5 to 7 feet around Chuuk. Palau and Yap are still experience hazardous surf up to 9 feet along west and north facing reefs as the slowly decreasing northwest swell from TY Fung-wong is slowly being replaced by a northwest to north swell that was generated by strong winds near Japan. Surf is expected to remain hazardous through tonight and then dropping below 9 feet by Tuesday evening. The coastal flood advisory for Yap and the coastal flood statement for Palau was allowed to end this afternoon as the magnitude of the high tide has been decreasing with the end of the King Tide Cycle, reducing the risk for coastal flooding. For Chuuk, a mix of northerly and easterly swells will move through the region, but surf is not expected to rise above hazardous levels of 9 feet along north facing or 12 feet along east facing reefs. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Montvila East Micronesia: Doll West Micronesia: Schank