346
FXUS61 KGYX 111751
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1251 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds will increase late this afternoon and become
gusty this evening. A persistent northwest flow regime will
bring chances for snow showers in the mountains most days while
southern areas remain mostly dry into the end of the week.
Unsettled weather arrives Sunday morning, bringing chances to
see rain and snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* Briefly heavy snow showers and/or squalls may bring minor
  travel impacts this afternoon and evening.

Snow showers have blossomed across much of the higher terrain
and foothills, with reports of flakes even in southern New
Hampshire at the time of this writing. CAMs have been very
consitent with placing a stripe of heavier snow showers through
southern Androscoggin and Kennebec counties, and down into
Lincoln and Sagadahoc this afternoon. They have backed off on
CAPE however, so these may not rise to the level of squalls, but
soundings do show around -0.5 Omega in a shallow but low level
snow growth zone. That should be good enough for rates around a
half inch an hour to near an inch an hour and with RAP snow
squall parameters around 1.5, so a true squall is not completely
out of the question. Looking at RWIS stations, road
temperatures are already well above freezing, so I anticipate
the main impact being low visibility (which has already been
observed in some showers late this morning), but higher rates
could put down a quick coating. CAMs have also been consistent
with lighter showers moving through the Kennebec Valley and the
Midcoast early this evening as the upper low moves off the
coast.

The upper low departs to the northeast tonight making for
mostly dry conditions across the area, but a combination of
northwest flow and a shortwave should sustain light snow showers
in the mountains through much of the night. Westerly wind gusts
are going to stay breezy (30-35 mph) at least into the first
part of the night as we stay well mixed into the 40-45 kt low
level jet. These taper off after midnight, but will remain
breezy enough that low temperatures dropping into the 20s
areawide are going to be feeling more like the low teens in the
north and upper teens to the south. &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather expected.

Warm air advection Wednesday morning allows for light snow
showers to spread into Western New Hampshire around sunrise,
moving eastward through the morning. As they reach the southern
Maine coast they may get some slight enhancement from surface
low pressure offshore, but even so this likely only results in a
light coating on grassy surfaces and untreated/dirt
roadways/walkways. Over the waters and islands this should be
light rain with the above freezing marine airmass. As we head
into the afternoon upper level flow begins to turn more westerly
and much of the area should be dry. Snow showers at this point
should be confined to the terrain of western New Hampshire with
flakes making it down into the Connecticut River Valley as high
temperatures struggle to push above freezing in this area, and a
shortwave moves through the broader trough. Downstream of the
mountains high temperatures rise into the mid to upper 30s, with
northern zones in the upper 20s and low 30s.

We flip back to a cold air advection regime Wedensday night as
the broader trough axis moves offshore, but continued shortwaves
and the upslope flow will once again promote light snow showers
in the northern terrain. Low temperatures are again expected to
drop into the 20s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An active pattern is expected to continued through the extended
forecast, as an upper-level low remains over the Canadian
Maritimes. This upper- level pattern should allow for generally
cooler temperatures through the weekend and into early next
week.

A weak shortwave will arrive from the Great Lakes Thursday
morning. This disturbance is likely to bring light rain and snow
to the area, with most of the snow remaining confined to areas
north of the mountains. Precipitation amounts should be small,
with a coating of snow expected north of the mountains and a few
hundredths of an inch of rain likely elsewhere by Friday. High
temperatures on Thursday range between mid-30s in the mountains
to upper 40s in the Seacoast.

High pressure works in from the west on Friday, remaining
overhead on Saturday as well. This will allow for a mostly dry
and clear Friday afternoon and Saturday for most. Clouds
increase Saturday night as a low moves into the area.

On Sunday morning, a more robust low approaches the area from
Canada. The low could bring almost any precipitation type,
though confidence is higher for snow in the north, with more
wintry mix and rain likely across southern New Hampshire and
York county. However, uncertainty is still high, with ensembles
showing a broad range of storm track solutions that could alter
precipitation type and amount outcomes significantly. Right now,
generally a half an inch of rain across the area looks
plausible, with interior ME and locations north of the White
Mountains possibly seeing a few inches of wet snow as well.

After the passage of the mentioned low, upslope snow showers
are possible early next week with mostly dry conditions
elsewhere.


&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Ceilings are trending toward VFR tonight with wind
gusts 20-25kts continuing up to 06Z Wednesday. Gusts as high as
30kts are possible at coastal terminals like PSM and PWM.
Fairly widespread MVFR ceilings are possible again during the
day Wednesday as we remain in the vicinity of an upper level
low. Light snow showers are also possible at all terminals
Wedensday morning which may lead to some visibility
restrictions, but confidence is not high enough to include more
than VCSH in the TAFs at this time. Wind gusts remain around
15kts during the afternoon Wednesday, becoming lighter into
Wednesday night.

Long Term...Lowered restrictions are likely on Thursday at HIE
and LEB and may continue through Saturday morning due to upslope
rain and snow showers. MVFR CIGs are expected elsewhere for
scattered showers. Conditions improve to VFR by the end of the
day Thursday outside of the mountains. VFR expected outside the
mountains on Friday, expected everywhere Saturday. Lowered
restrictions return Sunday morning as winter weather impacts the
region.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Westerly gales develop this evening and last into
early Wednesday morning. Wind gusts remain above 25kts through
the day Wednesday, but should fall below by the evening. Seas
remain elevated during this period as well, but should fall
below 5ft early Wednesday night. Light rain showers are possible
over the waters Wednesday morning.


Long Term...Northwesterly winds of 8-16kts are expected
Thursday morning and will continue through Sunday. 3-5ft seas
Thursday morning will gradually lower to 2-4ft by Friday and
remain below SCA thresholds through the upcoming weekend. SCA
issuance is not likely at this time.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ150-152>154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ151.

&&

$$


NEAR/SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Palmer