944
FXUS61 KGYX 031759
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1259 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern is expected through the week, with
multiple fronts bringing periods of rain and mountain snow. The
first front will push through tonight with windy conditions
expected on Tuesday. Another system with rain/snow showers and
gusty winds will move through mid-week, with additional systems
expected Friday night through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front crosses northern New England this evening, and
moves offshore after midnight. An area of showers ahead of this
front mostly passes offshore late this afternoon, but brings the
chance for some light showers this afternoon along the coast.

The main batch of more organized showers arrives with the front
from the west. The rain likely reaches western New Hampshire
shortly after sunset, and steadily crosses the rest of the
forecast area through the evening, pushing offshore shortly
after midnight. Showers are expected for a few hours across the
area, with rainfall amounts generally under a 1/4in.

Upslope WNW winds follow behind the front, bringing upslope
rain and snow showers to the higher terrain. Accumulating
snowfall is likely above 3000ft, and near the Canadian border
late tonight and tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The main story for tomorrow will be the increasingly strong and
gusty winds behind the front. Low pressure deepens across the
Canadian Maritimes, as a ridge high pressure builds into New
England from the southwest. The strengthening pressure gradient
force combines with daytime mixing and rising froude numbers to
bring strong wind gusts downwind of the mountains. Gusts of
45-50 mph look likely downwind of the mountains in Maine, and
through south-central New Hampshire and the Seacoast. Some power
outages are likely, but the threat looks limited now that most
of the leaves have dropped and trees are mostly dormant.

Winds gradually ease through the evening hours tomorrow night,
but a breeze looks likely to continue through the overnight
hours. A relatively cool airmass returns behind the front, but
doesn`t look quite as cool as our most recent one. Lows likely
drop into the upper 20s across the north, to the mid 30s along
the coast. Upslope rain and snow showers gradually diminish in
coverage through the overnight hours tomorrow night as the flow
eases.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* An active pattern continues through the long term with various
  chances of precipitation, including the potential for the
  first north country valley snow late Wednesday night through
  Thursday morning.
* Gusty winds are likely on Thursday and Saturday with gales
  possible over the coastal waters.
* Minor coastal flooding possible due to a very high
  astronomical tide cycle this week, especially on Saturday.

Forecast Details:
The first part of Wednesday will mainly be dry in advance of the
next compact shortwave/Clipper. Precipitation chances will start
to increase across northern New Hampshire and portions of the
western Maine mountains during the afternoon hours. Highs on
Wednesday will mainly be in the lower 40s to lower 50s but we
could see some 30s in the mountains and some mid 50s along the
coast or over southern New Hampshire. Precipitation then becomes
more widespread overnight as the core of the trough moves across
the region. Quite a bit of spread remains with regards to the
eventual track of the surface low which will have an impact on
thermal profiles. Still, we can certainly expect some snow
accumulations in the higher elevations with a chance for some
northern valley snow depending on how the pattern evolves. As
far as liquid totals go, the NBM has become a bit more bullish
even with the progressive nature of the system. The latest
24-hour NBM QPF probabilities suggest a 40 to 60 percent chance
of a half inch of liquid or greater across the northern and
eastern portions of our forecast area with lower probabilities
elsewhere. If we increase that threshold to an inch or greater,
the probabilities only max out in the 20 to 30 percent range.
Thus, the most likely outcome for totals as of now appears to
be in that 0.25 to 0.50 inch range.

The other concern for the Wednesday night/Thursday system will be
the next push of gusty winds. A surface cold front crosses the area
Wednesday night, shifting winds to out of the northwest. Strong cold
air advection, strong pressure rises, and a tightening pressure
gradient will all be favorable for strong winds behind the front,
but diurnal timing may not be optimal. Still, GFS Bufkit soundings
are quite impressive with winds at the top of the mixed layer during
the overnight hours through Thursday morning with only maybe the
slightest hint of an inversion at the surface. NAM soundings are not
as impressive but we will have to watch the trends over the next few
runs as new wind and/or marine headlines may eventually be needed.
Gusts up to 45 mph seem reasonable, especially across some of the
higher terrain and over the coastal waters. Gusty winds should
continue through the day on Thursday, diminishing in the late
afternoon or early evening.

While most of the precipitation will move out to the east Thursday
morning, we could see a few rain/snow showers lingering through the
day across the mountains. Highs will be cooler on Thursday behind
the front, mainly in the 30s across the mountains and the 40s
elsewhere. With the gusty winds, it will feel quite blustery.

Low amplitude ridging crosses the region late Thursday night/Friday
morning, leading to mainly dry conditions through the first part of
Friday. Highs Friday afternoon will be a touch warmer than Thursday
with less wind. Precipitation chances then increase again late in
the day Friday and into the overnight hours. There continues to be a
wide range of solutions regarding the end of the week system this
far out but precipitation amounts do not look to be all that
impressive thus far. Breezy return flow is likely to become
established late Friday through Saturday morning which could work in
tandem with very high astronomical tides to produce some minor
coastal flooding on Saturday.

Like a broken record in progressive flow, yet another wave
approaches late Sunday into Monday bringing another chance for
precipitation and gusty winds. NBM temperature spread remains high
Saturday through Monday given the low predictability pattern this
far out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...A period of MVFR to IFR ceilings moves through
with showers along a cold front this evening, with improvement
back to VFR between midnight and daybreak downwind of the
mountains. MVFR ceilings likely linger at LEB and HIE through at
least tomorrow afternoon, and possibly tomorrow night.
Northwesterly gusts of 30-40kt are likely at all terminals on
Tuesday. Winds gradually ease tomorrow evening, with VFR
prevailing outside of HIE and LEB.

Long Term...Another disturbance brings renewed chances for rain
Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday along with possible
restrictions. West northwest winds will persist with gusts
between 25-35 knots. Another system may bring additional
restrictions and precipitation towards the beginning of the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions in southwesterly flow develop for
this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Westerly gales
then follow the front as it crosses the waters shortly after
midnight. High pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday, as
low pressure deepens across the Canadian Maritimes. Gales
continue into Tuesday evening, and then winds gradually lower to
below SCA levels by daybreak on Wednesday.

Long Term...Seas and winds should relax a bit on Wednesday but
another round of SCA conditions and/or gales is possible late
Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Very high Astronomical high tides later this week will need to be
watched for minor coastal flood potential. Currently window of
concern could be Saturday with the potential of strong
southerly onshore flow and a 11.5ft MLLW tide at Portland
expected.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028-033.
NH...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for NHZ004-006-
     008>010-012>014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ150>154.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 9 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Hargrove