Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
069 FXUS61 KGYX 130510 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1210 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather remains in place today as upper level low pressure continues to move overhead. A better day is foreseen Friday as the low pressure system moves farther to the east. A fair weather day is expected on Saturday as high pressure moves in. Yet another low pressure system moves in Saturday night into Sunday allowing for rain in the south and mixed precipitation foothills and mountains. Windy weather is expected Monday in the wake of low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A series of relatively weak short wave troughs will move across New England today bringing another day of unsettled weather. Yet more snow showers are expected in the mountains where it should remain cold enough. Low pressure just offshore of Downeast ME will likely be associated with a weak inverted trough as the next short wave trough tries to lower pressures closer to the coast. This may allow for an enhanced period of showers Thu afternoon and early evening for Midcoast and central ME. If a few heavier bursts of precipitation occur, it could allow to a brief change to snow there. Otherwise, farther south in southern ME and southern NH mainly dry weather is expected with highs in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A few flurries continue to be possible tonight, with occasional snow showers gradually waning in the mountains. Otherwise, variably cloudy with lows in the 20s. An upper-level low overhead will allow for cooler temperatures to start the day Friday. A light pressure gradient will allow for a light northwest breeze through the day. Instability and upslope flow on Friday should allow for the development of upslope snow showers in the mountains. Surface high pressure should bring a mostly dry day elsewhere. High temperatures look to range from the mid-30s in the north, to mid-40s along the Seacoast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Evening Update... No major changes in the long term as the main focus remains on Sunday`s system. Overall the evening model runs hinted at a slightly weaker system, favoring a slightly cooler and lower QPF scenario. This would also favor a passive CAD set up as pressure falls occur in the Gulf of Maine. We`ll continue to watch to see if this trend holds for the next couple of runs, and allow it to come into the high res guidance`s window. Should the trends continue, temps will need to come down for Sunday across most of the area, and generally more light frozen precip would be expected. A cool pattern then continues for much of next week as broad trough remains across the Northeast. Full Discussion... Clouds increase Saturday afternoon as a low pressure system moves in from the northwest. The low arrives in New England by early Sunday morning, with many different precipitation types looking possible. Snow does appear to be the more dominant precipitation type further north and east, with more sleet, freezing rain and rain chances higher along the coast and across south-central New Hampshire. This is because as the low looks to move southeastward, it will overrun some colder air across NH and Maine. However, guidance also suggests secondary cyclogenesis could occur over the Gulf of Maine, which could prevent the warm layer associated with the aforementioned low to penetrate north and east of the White Mountains. The low should pass through the area quickly, with precipitation ending for most by Sunday night. Measurable snow is possible across northern NH and interior Maine, and a light glaze of ice is possible before a changeover to plain rain across southern New Hampshire. Early next week, a drying trend is expected, with a gradual warmup through the week. Breezy westerly winds look possible on Monday as a pressure gradient sets up behind Sunday`s system. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...Generally VFR cigs and Vsbys for southern ME and central/southern NH during the day today. MVFR cigs and vsbys likely in showery weather in the mountains and possibly RKD and AUG. Mainly VFR conditions expected tonight and Friday. Long Term...VFR continues through the end of the day Saturday. A low moves through, bringing mixed precipitation, snow and rain, and will bring restrictions Saturday night. Restrictions may improve to MVFR by the end of the day Sunday across southern NH and coastal areas due to a changeover to plain rain. However, lowered restrictions will remain through Monday morning. MVFR to VFR returns for early next week. && .MARINE... Short Term...Sub-SCA criteria is then expected through Friday. Westerly winds turn northwesterly Thursday afternoon. Long Term...Marginal SCA conditions are possible outside of the bays Friday night behind a passing cold front. Fair conditions return Saturday. SCA to northerly gales are then possible Sunday and Monday as low pressure deepens across the Canadian Maritimes. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Baron/Ekster LONG TERM...Clair/Palmer