387
FXUS61 KGYX 091105
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
605 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley lifts a warm
front into the area today bringing a brief wintry mix across
central areas this morning and snow in the mountains. Warmer
air moves in later this morning changing precipitation to rain
with rain continuing tonight through Monday. A cold front
crosses Monday night ushering in a much cooler airmass that will
persist through the middle of the week. There will be chances
for snow showers in the mountains most days from Tuesday onward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 PM Update:
The first push of precipitation is currently moving through New
Hampshire and into western Maine. Snow has been the main
precipitation type in higher terrain while rain has been the
main type south of the mountains. However, we have had some
reports of snow flurries/snow mixing in across a few areas south
of the mountains. Wintry precipitation is still expected to
change over to mainly rain after sunrise with multiple rounds of
warm air advection moving in. No major changes for this update.

Previously:
Key messages:
*Light wintry precipitation across central NH into the
 foothills of western Maine could produce some slick spots for a
 couple hours around sunrise. Temperatures rise above freezing
 shortly after sunrise with precipitation changing to rain.

*The mountains and far northern areas could see a coating to an
 inch of snow this morning followed by a wintry mix into mid day
 that could produce some slick travel. Temperatures rise above
 freezing by early afternoon with precipitation changing to rain
 in the valleys.

Forecast Details: A pair of short waves rotating through a deepening
trough over the Great Lakes will spread broad forcing for ascent
across New England today through Monday. Mostly clear skies earlier
tonight has allowed for temperatures to drop into the 20s across the
north while southern areas are in the mid to upper 30s as of this
writing. The first short wave is starting to spawn an area of low
pressure over the Ohio Valley and associated cloud cover will
overspread the area limiting the further drop in temperatures.

Weak warm air advection will bring chances for light precipitation
across portions of NH around daybreak and into western Maine this
morning. Temperatures will be tricky at precipitation onset,
especially across central NH where surface temperatures will be
close to freezing with warmer air aloft. Thermal profiles will
support a period of snow across the mountains and north with a brief
wintry mix likely across central NH into the foothills of western
Maine. Across southern NH into the coastal plain of Maine
temperatures will support mainly light rain. This initial band of
WAA precipitation will lift northeastward through the morning with
PoPs dropping off around mid day before another axis of WAA Fgen
forcing pushes in this afternoon. By the arrival of this second
batch of precipitation temperatures will support mainly rain across
the area except for the mountains where the higher terrain may
continue to see a wintry mix. Broad low pressure will press into
southern New England this evening with mainly rain continuing into
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
The second short wave rotating into the trough will help deepen the
broad area of low pressure tonight into Monday as the low tracks
north over western Maine. Temperatures tonight will be in the mid to
upper 40s south of the mountains and mid to upper 30s north of the
mountains. Rain will be the dominant precipitation type tonight
through Monday. As the low deepens tonight easterly winds will
increase tonight with gusts to 25 mph along the coast.

Low pressure tracks overhead during the day Monday with
continued widespread rain. Rainfall amounts from today through
Monday will generally be around 0.5 to 0.75 inches south of the
mountains. Total QPF in the mountains will be upwards of 1 inch
with some of that QPF falling as snow, sleet and freezing rain.
Highs on Monday will range from the mid 40s north to mid 50s
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled week still in the cards as initial surface low
departs Monday night followed by stationary cyclonic flow aloft.
Downstream block brings progression of pressure systems to a
halt.

Monday night, low pressure will continue a northward track,
shadowing initial wave of precipitation from Sun/Mon. Course for
this low has trended just off the Hampton coast, and may make
landfall again into Midcoast ME on it`s way north. Low will be
deepening, with net divergence off the western flank potentially
enhancing a stripe of precip and measurable QPF thru the
midnight hour. Did tend to linger QPF across the mountains and
central NH, bumping up base NBM values into Mon night, but will
need to be aware of rapidly advecting dry air. The same reason
the storm deepens well will also aid in it`s ferry northward: a
strong 130-170kt mid/upper jet nosing into the Gulf of Maine
overnight. Measurable precip won`t stick around for morning as
dry air limits deeper moisture.

Another breezy day Tuesday as upper pattern tilts negative
across ME and into the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday. West winds
usher in cooler temps, with highs 10 to 15 degrees cooler than
Monday. This will also lead to a much cooler Mon night. The
upper air pattern will prolong the broad cyclonic flow over the
forecast area, keeping weather unsettled through at least
Thursday. Some question how many showers make it into the
interior and coast after terrain in NH/VT/NY. Of greater
confidence is the unstable west flow, cooler temps, and subtle
low level moisture providing gradual accumulation of snow in the
western ME mtns, Whites, and boundary mtns.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Clouds thicken and continue to lower this morning
with periods of rain and low cigs bringing MVFR to IFR
conditions today. Cigs continue to lower tonight into Monday
with widespread rain and IFR to LIFR conditions. Easterly winds
will gust to around 20 kts along the coast tonight.

Long Term...IFR to LIFR ceilings will retreat northeast by
daybreak Tuesday. A trend towards VFR is forecast amid a breezy
west wind Tuesday. MVFR ceilings remain towards HIE with SHRASN.
These ceilings may remain in the northern NH/western ME vicinity
for much of this week as conditions remain unsettled.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Broad low pressure approaches from the SW today and
brings increasing easterly flow and building seas tonight. Winds
and seas will bring SCA conditions from this afternoon into
Monday morning. Winds subside Monday while seas remain
elevated.

Long Term...Low pressure will be pushing north Monday night and
into the Canadian Maritimes Tues morning. Region will be in
broad cyclonic flow, featuring predominantly west winds through
the week. Winds peak Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon where Gales are likely. These will also drive a wind
wave of 6 to 9 ft outside of the bays/harbors.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Hargrove/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Cornwell