906
FXUS61 KGYX 200507
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1207 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and sunny weather persists today as high pressure continues
to build into the region. Calm and mostly clear weather will
make for another cold night tonight. The daylight hours of
Friday should be mostly dry outside of the mountains before a
front brings a slight chance of showers Friday night. The
pattern looks to remain unsettled through at least the middle of
next week with several chances for disturbances to cross the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather impacts expected

Visible satellite early this morning shows some low cloud cover
hanging on along the International Border and into central
Somerset County. This is keeping the area insulated and making
Jackman one of the warmest places in the CWA at 28F. Elsewhere,
temperatures are well on their way into the teens and low 20s.
High clouds are also encroaching from the west, but these should
not affect the ongoing radiational cooling.

High pressure becomes centered over the area today making for
another dry and sunny day. After a cold night high temperatures
will recover into the mid- to upper 30s across northern zones,
and into the low to mid-40s across southern zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather impacts expected

Tonight: High pressure departs tonight, but hold on long enough
to make for another clear and calm night. Flow aloft
transitions southwesterly, so there will be some moisture
advection that could lead to some clouds and hinder radiational
cooling a bit, but low temperatures are likely to drop into the
teens and 20s once again.

Friday: Low pressure centered north of the region begins to
push a front toward the area. Showers begin in the mountains
late morning/early afternoon. Continued warm air advection
pushes temperatures above freezing here, topping out in the
upper 30s and low 40s. As a result a few snowflakes may mix in
at onset, but outside of the higher peaks, it should quickly
transition to rain. Temperatures south of the mountains push
into the mid- to upper 40s. Showers hold off in these zones
until after the end of the short term forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Evening Update...

Key Messages:
*Friday night system continues to trend drier with latest model
 runs

The bulk of the long term has not significantly changed with
the incorporation of the latest NBM as we head back into an
unsettled pattern with several chances for disturbances to cross
the region through the middle of next week. PoPs and QPF Friday
night continue to trend downward for most of the area. Global
models show a mid- level dry slot in the split flow over our
area which may reduce any widespread precipitation previously
expected to just a few light showers (already being hinted at in
the 20/00Z NAMNest) as the best forcing remains north and south
of our area. PoPs remain highest across the north as showers
last through the first part of the night.

Previous Discussion...

There are some solutions that bring a second plume of rain into
the Gulf of Maine by Saturday morning, clipping southern NH and
the southern ME coast. However, still equal chances this occurs
later and over the open Gulf waters. For precip types, model
soundings point to a rain/snow event with rain in most locations
and snow mixing in for the mountains.

Brief high pressure works into the region Saturday night with
clouds remaining mostly over the mountains. Drying in the column
increases confidence that other locations see mostly clear
skies. Did drop low temperatures for another cool night in the
lower 20s and upper teens. This should be attainable in good
radiational cooling conditions. Hesitant to go any lower with
center of the high to the south and light NW breeze continuing
in the evening.

Will look for another weak disturbance to swing through
northern New England Sunday night followed by another brief
ridge of high pressure through early week. Next system to impact
the region with measurable precip looks to be into mid-week next
week. Early deterministic runs, and AI-GEFS, portray this as a
overunning event with additional low development in the Gulf of
Maine. This could lead to CAD and mixed precip, but duration and
intensity will need to be refined as the date nears.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Other than the possibility of some fog early this
morning around LEB, which should clear shortly after 12Z, VFR
should prevail through Friday as the region remains under high
pressure.

Long Term...Still could see period of IFR ceilings for
mountain/western terminals overnight Friday. SHRA is forecast
for much of the area, most prominent to again where MVFR is
likely. SHSN may reduce some vis in the mountains. Expect trend
to VFR for Sat and Sun, with lowered ceilings holding on towards
HIE and CAN/US border locations.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions remain below SCA criteria through the
day Friday as high pressure remains over the waters. Winds shift
from northerly to southerly tonight, where they will remain
through Friday.

Long Term...Southerly flow preempts passage of a occluded front
Friday night. These become NW Saturday with some gusts to 25 kt
on the coastal waters. These slacken Sat night into Sunday as
high pressure passes to the south. A weaker system passes to the
north Sun night, with high pressure again building across the
region Mon/Tues.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Baron/Cornwell