174
FXUS61 KGYX 100547
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1247 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure approaches from the west today spreading
accumulating snow across the interior through tonight while
coastal areas see mainly rain. A cold front crosses Thursday
morning with a prolonged period of gusty winds in its wake
through Friday. High pressure briefly builds in Friday night
into Saturday before the next trough approaches from the Great
Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Passage of the first front right now is fighting some dry air
at least initially. That has resulted in mostly very light
snow/snow showers with visibility generally greater than 2SM. As
expected though the radar returns are getting more robust over
the Midcoast and that is expected to continue for the next
several hours. It is from these areas and points east where an
inch or two remains possible.

However the more widespread precip will arrive with the next
front later today. I anticipate the bulk of the precip arrives
around or after noon. Trends on temps have been cooler...but not
quite cool enough over southern NH and near the coast to save
those areas from flipping to rain for a time. With the air mass
remaining rather cold I could see most areas starting as
snow...but that is unlikely to hold at least mid level warmth at
bay. Hi-res guidance is now showing 2 m temps to remain cold
across the forecast area...for instance PWM struggling to make
32 degrees today. However that may just bring a wintry mix
instead. 925 mb temps will still climb above freezing for a good
chunk of the area south of the mtns...and so a transition
period of light freezing rain is a possibility. An expansion of
winter weather advisories may be necessary if trends continue.
Otherwise there has been little change to the forecast from
previous shifts. For parts of the Kennebec River Valley where
colder air is expected to hang on longer I have expanded the
winter weather advisory for one such period of freezing rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Whatever precip is left will come to an end...especially after
midnight. After that we transition to northwest winds and
upslope snow showers. Generally left PoP as is from the NBM with
active short term weather of concern...but I could see the need
for those values to bump up in subsequent forecast updates.
Flow will also be largely unblocked and snow showers should
easily crest the mtns and spill towards the coast. NBM PoP
generally has pretty good coverage on that front.

One spot it does not seem to be handling well is the cold
advection mixing. Forecast soundings across the forecast area
have mixing heights high enough to tap 40+ kt winds. That should
easily bring 30 to 35 kt gusts to the surface over the latter
half of Thu when the CAA is the strongest. I have blended in
some 90th percentile NBM winds and hi-res guidance to compensate
for this.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid level low will deepen as it tracks across northern Maine
Thursday night and Friday. Deep layer westerly flow will strengthen
on the backside of this system resulting in blustery conditions
Thursday night through Friday as a colder airmass advects into the
region. Winds subside Friday night into Saturday as high pressure
briefly builds in from the southwest. The next northern stream
trough approaches Saturday into Sunday bringing chances for light
snow.

A WNW low level jet will strengthen over northern New England
Thursday night into Friday as low pressure becomes vertically
stacked over the Canadian Maritimes. Winds at 850 mb will
approach 60 kts while BUFKIT profiles suggest that the top of
the mixed layer will come short of tapping into these winds.
Nevertheless, mean layer momentum transfer of 35 kts will bring
potential for wind gusts up to 40 mph Thursday night through
Friday with much stronger winds in the mountains. These winds
combined with a colder airmass will result in wind chills below
zero across much of the area Friday morning. Skies turn mostly
sunny south of the mountains by Friday afternoon with highs
ranging from the teens north to upper 20s south.

High pressure briefly builds in Friday night into Saturday morning
allowing winds to subside. A short wave will shear out as it
approaches Saturday afternoon while vort max diving southeast across
the Dakotas deepens a long wave trough centered over the Great
Lakes. A few ensemble members and the occasional deterministic
run have shown this vort max spawning an organized low pressure
system crossing New England Sunday. Were these solutions to
verify then we would see potential for widespread accumulating
snow. However, these solutions are in a minority with NBM PoPs
running 20 to 30 percent late Saturday night through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Generally VFR this morning withe TEMPO MVFR or IFR
conditions in snow as it moves in pockets thru the forecast
area. This will mostly move out of the area by 08z at the
latest. Then the next batch of precip moves in around midday.
This will bring IFR or lower conditions to the northern half of
the forecast area at least...where snow is the predominant
ptype. This may end up pushing closer to the coast if colder
trends continue. While winds aloft will be quite strong both
this morning and again later today...they will be largely
unidirectional. So LLWS is not anticipated but low level
turbulence is likely. Then winds turn westerly and VFR returns.
Surface gusts to 30 kt are possible at all terminals except HIE
by afternoon.

Long Term...Mainly VFR Thursday night through Sunday. WNW winds
will gust to 30 kts Thursday night through Friday. There are low
chances for light snow Saturday night into Sunday that will
bring the potential for the next period of restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
1230 AM Update... Went ahead and extended the gale
warning for the outer waters through 18Z Friday. While a brief
window of sub- gale force winds are possible, they should
remain at least around 30 kts. Also went ahead and issued a gale
watch for the bays, which runs from 00Z Fri through 18Z Fri.

Short Term...Gusty winds continue this morning and will be
followed by stronger winds later today. Gale warning and SCAs
continue over the coastal waters. After the cold front drives
thru the region Thu strong westerly winds are anticipated.
Another round of gales is likely...and they may be strong gales.

Long Term...West winds will bring potential for Gales Thursday
night through Friday. Winds and seas drop below SCA thresholds
Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for NHZ001>004.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Friday for
     ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for ANZ151-153.
     Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for
     ANZ151-153.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro/Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Schroeter