458
FXUS61 KGYX 180508
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1208 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery weather and cool temperatures will continue today,
although mountain snow showers will gradually come to an end.
There will be some steady improvement in daytime temperatures as
high pressure builds towards the area, but it will also make for
ideal conditions for overnight temperatures to get quite cold.
Wednesday night in particular could be very chilly across the
region. Some single digits are not out of the question in the
northern valleys. The next chance for widespread precipitation
will arrive late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Cold advection regime continues thru today. That will mean
plenty of upslope clouds...and at least thru sunrise upslope
snow showers bringing accumulating snow to the high peaks and
upwind areas.

With the air mass slowly but steadily drying out...I anticipate
that cloud cover will not be as widespread as yesterday. So
while cold advection keeps temps near to below normal...temps
should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday south of the mtns
with some sun. Otherwise it will still be breezy...with 25 to
35 mph gusts at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Continued drying of the air mass will allow clouds to begin
lifting and scattering out in the mtns. Any remaining snow
showers will also start to trend towards flurries at best.

Cold air advection linger into Wed...so temps will remain near
to below normal. But by Wed high pressure will be nosing in from
the west and winds should be noticeably lighter.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
05Z Forecast Update: Little change in the latest run of the
National Blend of Models (NBM). Strong radiational cooling is
likely Wednesday night as a ~1025 mb high crests over the
region. Lows will range from the teens across the north with
low-mid 20s elsewhere. A few northern valleys may approach the
single digits. After a dry day on Thursday, precipitation
chances look to increase Friday into Friday night. There could
be some mixed wintry precipitation at the onset early Friday
morning but significant uncertainty exists at this time range.
Drier conditions will then likely return this weekend with near
avg temperatures.


Previously... Key Messages:
* Expect a very gradual warmup into the weekend but temperatures
  generally remain below average to average for this time of year.
* The next widespread chance of precipitation comes Friday through
  Friday night, but impacts continue to look fairly low.

Details: We transition to nearly zonal flow aloft Wednesday
night into Thursday as the ridge axis to our west continues to
deamplify on it`s approach. A weak shortwave moves through on
Thursday but most of the forcing remains well outside of our
forecast area so we should remain mostly dry as high pressure is
slow to move out to the east. Highs on Thursday will be similar
to Wednesday but maybe just a touch warmer over the higher
terrain.

We switch back to southwest flow aloft Thursday night into
Friday as the next longwave trough approaches. This system will
lead to our next widespread precipitation chances Friday through
Friday night, but it continues to look relatively low impact
given the progressive nature of the trough. NBM 24-hour QPF
probabilities suggest medium chances for liquid totals of at
least a quarter inch and low to medium chances for liquid totals
greater than a half inch (and the higher probabilities are
mainly over the mountains and foothills). Precipitation type
appears to mainly be rain outside of the higher terrain but some
snow will be possible in the mountains. However, at this time,
NBM snow probabilities for totals over an inch only max out
around 20 to 30 percent. Friday may end up being our warmest day
of the long term with highs ranging from the 30s and lower 40s
across the north, to the mid to upper 40s elsewhere. A few lower
50s will be possible over southern New Hampshire and coastal
areas.

Upper low moves farther north into Quebec and eventually the
Canadian Maritimes Friday night into Saturday as the trough
continues to move east. A few wrap around snow showers will be
possible through the rest of the weekend as we remain in
cyclonic flow aloft with various weak waves moving through into
the start of the next work week.


&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Widespread VFR conditions expected south of the
mtns. To the north lingering MVFR CIGs are anticipated thru the
first part of today...with gradual lifting and scattering into
the afternoon. Winds will remain gusty and surface gusts of 25
kt will be possible at all terminals. High pressure building
towards the region tonight into Wed will allow winds to slowly
diminish the rest of the period.

Long Term...VFR conditions are likely through at least Thursday
evening. A return to widespread precipitation chances then
could lead to some restrictions Friday and into Friday night.
Conditions should then improve again this upcoming weekend as
high pressure returns.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas continue to diminish as the pressure
gradient relaxes locally. Gale force gusts are no longer
anticipated to be frequent...but cold air advection will keep
winds gusty thru at least this evening. Gale warnings have been
converted to SCAs for all waters.

Long Term...Winds become lighter and more variable through the
end of the week, with both winds and seas expected to stay below
SCA thresholds through the second half of this week. SCA level
westerly winds are possible Friday night into Saturday but
significant uncertainty exists at this time range.&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Hargrove/Tubbs
AVIATION...Legro/Tubbs
MARINE...Legro/Tubbs