936
FXUS61 KGYX 272326 AAA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
726 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach from the Great Lakes tonight and will
cross the area during the day Saturday. High pressure builds in
Sunday and Monday for mostly dry conditions and a warming trend.
Low pressure tracking through Quebec will drag a cold front
across the area Tuesday bringing chances for thunderstorms.
Outside of some mountain showers, the middle to second half of
next week looks mostly dry and seasonably warm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.

Previous discussion...Surface winds have slowly shifted onshore
through the day as high pressure drifts through northern and
eastern ME. This will increase low level moisture across much of
the area as the upper levels saturate top down.

Elevated radar echos are visible just entering far western ME
and northern NH, but it will take awhile for lower radar returns
to develop based on dry air in the mid levels. This likely
happens later this evening, with steadier rain after midnight
and into Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Steadier rain will be underway for much of southern ME and
northern NH Sat AM. While the trend has been pushing stratiform
rain northward, there looks to be local lift enhancement as low
level winds increase across eastern ME. Just under the entrance
region to a upper jet moving off the Canadian Maritimes, this
will increase rainfall Sat morning for much of the ME coast and
interior. This looks to transit east for the afternoon.

Highest fcst rain totals are still in the mountains of northern
NH and western ME. HREF PMM has indeed shifted north, but this
keeps 24 hr totals pretty impressive for locations near the
CAN/US border. Can`t rule out isolated locations greater than 2
inches, but will need to take advantage of convective elements
that pass Saturday morning.

With the push northward, much of the southern half of the
forecast area sees less steady rain and moreso showery
conditions. Moisture dept is less, thus opted mention of
scattered showers here. Model profiles hint that saturation
levels are thin, and this may lead to breaks in clouds for far
SW NH during the afternoon. With a frontal feature set to be
tracking towards the CWA late PM, could see some thunderstorms
near SW NH late. SPC Marginal Risk area is posted just west of
the area, and can`t rule out a strong storm continuing into NH
for the evening if trends continue.

Rain will have lifted north by midnight, with fog continuing
until the cold front slides through early Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A wave of low pressure will be exiting the coast Sunday morning
followed by high pressure sliding across New England Sunday
afternoon into Monday. High pressure moves well offshore Monday
night as an area of low pressure tracks northeastward through
Quebec. Deep moisture will advect into New England Tuesday ahead of
a cold front that will likely bring thunderstorms through Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Cyclonic flow aloft will keep low chances for
showers and afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast through mid week
followed by high pressure building in late next week. Monday and
Tuesday will be the warmest and most humid days of the period with
the middle to later half of next week remaining seasonably warm with
highs in the 80s.

Sunday is shaping up to be a better day than Saturday with clearing
skies and temperatures climbing into the 70s across the north and
into the 80s across the south. Steady northwest winds will limit the
potential for a sea breeze to push inland with coastal areas also
getting to around 80 degrees. Deep layer ridging builds over the
Northeast Monday allowing for mostly sunny skies and warmer
temperatures as highs climb well into the 80s with interior
locations getting into the low 90s. Dew points will be in the low to
mid 60s and won`t lead to much of a difference in heat indices
versus the ambient air temperature.

Global models remain in decent agreement in a trough swinging across
the Great Lakes Monday night with an area of low pressure tracking
through Quebec Tuesday. Deep moisture will move into the forecast
area with dew points climbing to near 70 degrees and PWATs
approaching 2 inches. Model consensus also continues to favor a
cold front crossing the area during the second half of the day
that would allow for sufficient instability for thunderstorms.
The latest LREF shows MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg with around 30 kts
of deep layer shear. This continues to suggest conditions may
become favorable for strong to severe storms, although the finer
details will remain unresolved until we enter the window of CAM
guidance.

The cold front will push offshore Wednesday morning while
cyclonic flow aloft will remain through Thursday. Embedded
waves moving through the cyclonic flow will bring low chances
for showers and perhaps thunderstorms across the north Wednesday
and Thursday afternoons. High pressure then looks to build in
late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR this evening with ceilings thickening and
lowering, especially after midnight. MVFR conditions move into
northern NH and western ME terminals early Saturday, with -RA.
Ceilings continue lower to IFR during the day Saturday. ME
terminals see the greatest chance of continuous rain Saturday
morning, along with far northern NH. SHRA is likely for points
further south. Fog develops Sat afternoon before cold front
arrives overnight to improve vis restrictions by Sun morning.

Long Term...Mainly VFR Sunday into Monday, while increasing
moisture will bring the potential for night time fog Sunday
night. A cold front brings chances for thunderstorms Tuesday
that will bring the potential for brief restrictions.
Improvement is likely into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions below SCA through Saturday night. High
pressure passes close to the NE today, with low pressure and
cold front passing Sat and Sat night. Do expect increase in wave
action through Saturday, but only to around 4 ft.

Long Term...Offshore flow will likely turn out of the south by
Monday as high pressure slides over the waters. South to
southwest flow increases Monday night into Tuesday ahead of a
cold front with SCAs likely needed over the outer waters
Tuesday. A cold front will cross the waters late Tuesday
bringing chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Schroeter