440
FXUS61 KGYX 172322
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
722 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minimal changes have been made to the ongoing forecast at this
time for this evening. Widely sct showers and isold
thunderstorms are possible in the CT Valley region for a few
more hours this evening, then we expect areas of fog.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A weak frontal passage this afternoon will allow for the
potential to see a few scattered thunderstorms, mainly across the
interior. Nearly widespread patchy fog will develop behind the
front. Some very weak instability tomorrow could also lead to an
isolated shower or storm across the interior on Tuesday as well.

2. Low-impact weather is expected mid to late week, with a
couple chances for light rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

A cloudy, but very humid day has unfolded across northern New
England. Thick cloud cover overhead should thin out through the
afternoon, as low stratus progressively mixes out across the area.
Less cloud cover later in the day will also allow for a marginal
convective environment to set up ahead of a very weak cold front.
CAPE of 300-500J and low low-level wind shear should allow for
slower-moving thunderstorms. A couple wind gusts can not be ruled
out with some of the stronger storms that develop. Despite the
storms being slower-moving, storms will not move slowly enough to
cause a flooding threat of any kind. The front is poised to stall
over interior NH and ME tomorrow morning, allowing for showers to
continue across the interior.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue tomorrow afternoon as
the aforementioned front becomes quasi-stationary. Showers are
storms should still be pretty scattered, as low stratus and fog
overnight tonight should somewhat limit shower and storm development
on Tuesday. Showers become more isolated Tuesday night and more
patchy fog could develop along the CT river valley and along the
coastal plain, likely lasting until sunrise Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

A cold front will approach New England Wednesday. While SW flow
ahead of it will bring warming temps into the lower 80s for the
day, the front moves overhead with little fanfare as forcing
weakens and moisture is inconsistent through the atmospheric
column. Sharpening of the trough looks to take place downstream,
with smoothing of the embedded wave that will pass through
northern New England. Expect much of the precipitation to
dissipate to the west, but some moisture could build on the
windward side of the Whites, resulting in isolated showers or
sprinkles through the late afternoon and evening.

If the front continues to slow as the parent low occludes east
of Hudson Bay, then it may wind up draped across the forecast
area or just to the east. This would be the eventual pathway for
low pressure across the Ohio Valley to track into the latter
half of the week. Thus precip chances Thursday and Friday could
eventually be in flux.

High pressure should be nearing the region come the weekend, but
there will be the complicating factor of the slow moving
boundary exiting, mentioned above, and a potential cut off low
or trough arriving from the west. The combination of the low and
return flow could spell for a damp period across much of the
Northeast, but anticipate some slowing of the low`s transit
east which could help the first half of the weekend remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...Conditions could degrade
down to IFR as showers move in and fog builds this evening.
Although showers and storms look to generally become more
isolated by Monday evening, restrictions will stay down as fog
continues to spread across NH and western Maine. Fog looks to
mix out with diurnal heating Tuesday morning.

MVFR is expected along the interior through the day Tuesday as
isolated to scattered showers remain over the area. Coastal
sites should stay dry, and potentially remain VFR during the
day. Fog builds back in Tuesday night, with lower restrictions
along the coast and across the CT river valley sites. Fog mixes
out Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday: Mostly VFR. Some low ceilings are
possible NW of the mountains for terminals such as HIE with SHRA.
Also can`t rule out lower ceilings or fog towards Penobscot
Bay.

Thursday night and Friday: VFR, no sig wx.

Saturday: VFR likely, no sig wx.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas likely remain below SCA levels through the rest
of the week. Areas of fog will be possible through Thursday. A
cold front approaches the waters midweek, as a wave of low
pressure passes south of New England and into the Gulf of Maine
or open Atlantic. High pressure could return for the first half
of the weekend.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Ekster/Palmer
AVIATION...
MARINE...