192
FXUS61 KGYX 272236
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
636 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough will remain over the Northeast through much of
this week favoring below normal temperatures and mostly dry
conditions through Thursday. A cold front and low pressure then
approach late in the week, bringing an increasing potential for
showers on Friday. The front crosses east of the area by
Saturday, but scattered daytime showers remain possible over the
weekend as an upper low crosses the region. High pressure moves
into the region late weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
630 PM Update...Isolated showers across the coastal plain of ME
to central ME will move off to the east and dissipate over the
next couple of hours. Otherwise we expect river valley fog
tonight, especially the CT River Valley.

Previously...

500mb shortwave continues to trek across northern New England this
afternoon with scattered showers expected mostly across the southern
2/3 of NH eastward into western ME from the foothills southward. A
few hundred J/kg of CAPE and cooling temperatures aloft will be
sufficient enough for a few storms capable of small hail or graupel,
and inverted V profiles suggest gusty outflow winds are also
possible.

Skies clear out behind the shortwave this evening and remain mostly
clear overnight. Conditions look good for radiational cooling, and I
have leaned on the cooler guidance with temperatures mostly in the
40s for lows, except northern valley could even see lows in the
upper 30s. More valley fog is expected in some areas, and
temperatures will be cool enough for steam/evaporation fog over
many area lakes and ponds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday begins with shortwave ridging overhead with mostly sunny
skies initially (except where there is valley fog), but we`ll see
increasing mid and high clouds as the day goes on with an upper low
and cold front approaching from southern Quebec and the Great Lakes
region. Temperatures and humidity levels remain comfortable with
highs in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints mostly in the 40s. A
couple of showers are possible across the far north while the rest
of the area stays dry.

The upper low moves slowly eastward Thursday night roughly just north
of the International Border with the front expected to be
approaching VT by around daybreak. Even with lift increasing, there
will be dry air to overcome, so most of the night is expected to be
dry. New Hampshire may start seeing showers toward daybreak with
chances increasing to 20-30%, but these will further increase on
Friday (more below). With clouds possibly hindering radiational
cooling, I haven`t deviated from the NBM on lows in the 40s and 50s.
Fog is also not in the forecast at the moment due to the cloud
cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Wave approaches from the west early on Friday. Trend has been
for this low to slow and pivot over south central Quebec.
Southern portion will continue into New England as a cold front,
and this should carry some showers and storms with it.
Ingredients for stronger storms will be marginal, mainly due to
conditional CAPE values. Low level shear values would promote
some organization to deeper showers or storms, but would need
clearing/morning sun to properly set the stage for better
instability. Lapse rates don`t look too bad, both low and mid
levels would be supportive of strong storms per the NAM. GFS is
a little more reserved with these values for the time being.

Low pressure begins to slow and stack over Quebec overnight into
Saturday, cutting off from main transport. With cooler air
aloft creating favorable lapse rates, believe scattered showers
will be around for much of Saturday, mainly in the mountains and
foothills. Thin dry slot may work its way into the coast and
interior to limit coverage here. Coverage decreases after
sundown.

Outside of the initial push of moisture, high pressure will
bring more continental dry airmass into the region for Sunday
and into early next week. Temperatures trend to around normal
for late August and early September.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR the rest of today outside of
precipitation. Scattered showers/isolated storms may bring brief
restrictions at southern and coastal terminals this afternoon
and early evening, and some TAF sites may require TEMPO
restrictions. Fog is expected to bring restrictions to HIE and
LEB tonight through around 12-13Z Thursday, but otherwise VFR
Thursday. Fog is possible Thursday night at HIE and LEB and also
in the AUG-RKD corridor.

Long Term...Increasing chances for rain showers and possibly a
couple of thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. MVFR/IFR
restrictions look more likely across central ME terminals like
AUG/RKD Friday night into Sunday morning. Showers remain
possible over the weekend, mainly during the days, with the low
pressure lingering across the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels
through Thursday night. S to SW winds this afternoon will
become west to northwest tonight and then southerly Thursday and
Thursday night ahead of a frontal boundary and low pressure
approaching from the west.

Long Term...Southerly flow increases into Friday as low
pressure and a cold front approach from the west, but gusts
look to stay below SCA levels at this time. The front crosses
sometime on Saturday with a wind shift to the west or northwest
possible. High pressure builds across the waters from Sunday
into early next week with conditions staying expected to stay
below SCA levels.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Combs/Ekster
SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Cornwell
AVIATION...
MARINE...