978
FXUS61 KGYX 040554
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1254 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern is expected through the week, with
multiple fronts bringing periods of rain and mountain snow. Windy
conditions are expected today in the wake of a cold front.
Power outages are possible. Another system with rain/snow
showers and gusty winds will move through mid-week, with
additional systems expected Friday night through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The main weather story for today with be west to northwest winds
in the wake of a cold front. Most forecast sounding guidance
shows anywhere between 40-50 knots near the top of a well-mixed
boundary layer today. This supports the current wind advisory
with gusts around 50 MPH likely at times. There has a good
amount of leaf-drop lately and that is good. However, areas of
power outages are expected.

As far as precipitation goes, most locations in the forecast
area will be dry. However, some squally weather is likely in the
mountains and perhaps the foothills in the CAA regime.

Temperatures will be in the 50s at low elevations with 30s and
40s in the mountains depending on elevation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds gradually ease through the evening hours into tonight,
but a breeze looks likely to continue through the overnight
hours. A relatively cool airmass returns behind the front, but
doesn`t look quite as cool as our most recent one. Lows likely
drop into the upper 20s across the north, to the mid 30s along
the coast. Upslope rain and snow showers gradually diminish in
coverage through the overnight hours tomorrow night as the flow
eases.

Another vigorous short wave trough will approach on Wednesday.
Precipitation should begin overspreading the northern zones by
late morning or early afternoon in association with an advancing
warm front. Some of this will likely be snow at the highest
elevations. Rain gradually overspreads most of the rest of the
region by late afternoon although a good portion of southern NH
may remain dry as they are currently modeled to be in the warm
sector, away from forcing for ascent. Snow levels should
gradually drop in the mountains late in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Early morning long term update...01z NBM has been incorporated
into the forecast. Not much change to the going forecast noted.
Main interest continues to be the potential for accumulating
snow in the mountain valleys and some foothill locations
Wednesday night. Northwesterly winds behind low pressure
Thursday will be quite strong and another wind advisory may be
required.

Previously...

Key Messages:
* An active pattern continues through the long term with various
  chances of precipitation, including the potential for the
  first north country valley snow Wednesday night through
  Thursday morning.
* Gusty winds are likely on Thursday and Saturday with gales
  possible over the coastal waters.
* Minor coastal flooding possible due to a very high
  astronomical tide cycle this week, especially on Saturday.

Forecast Details:
Precipitation then becomes more widespread overnight Wed night as
the core of the trough moves across the region. Quite a bit of
spread remains with regards to the eventual track of the surface
low which will have an impact on thermal profiles. Still, we
can certainly expect some snow accumulations in the higher
elevations with a chance for some northern valley snow depending
on how the pattern evolves. As far as liquid totals go, the NBM
has become a bit more bullish even with the progressive nature
of the system. The latest 24-hour NBM QPF probabilities suggest
a 40 to 60 percent chance of a half inch of liquid or greater
across the northern and eastern portions of our forecast area
with lower probabilities elsewhere. If we increase that
threshold to an inch or greater, the probabilities only max out
in the 20 to 30 percent range. Thus, the most likely outcome for
totals as of now appears to be in that 0.25 to 0.50 inch range.

The other concern for the Wednesday night/Thursday system will be
the next push of gusty winds. A surface cold front crosses the area
Wednesday night, shifting winds to out of the northwest. Strong cold
air advection, strong pressure rises, and a tightening pressure
gradient will all be favorable for strong winds behind the front,
but diurnal timing may not be optimal. Still, GFS Bufkit soundings
are quite impressive with winds at the top of the mixed layer during
the overnight hours through Thursday morning with only maybe the
slightest hint of an inversion at the surface. NAM soundings are not
as impressive but we will have to watch the trends over the next few
runs as new wind and/or marine headlines may eventually be needed.
Gusts up to 45 mph seem reasonable, especially across some of the
higher terrain and over the coastal waters. Gusty winds should
continue through the day on Thursday, diminishing in the late
afternoon or early evening.

While most of the precipitation will move out to the east Thursday
morning, we could see a few rain/snow showers lingering through the
day across the mountains. Highs will be cooler on Thursday behind
the front, mainly in the 30s across the mountains and the 40s
elsewhere. With the gusty winds, it will feel quite blustery.

Low amplitude ridging crosses the region late Thursday night/Friday
morning, leading to mainly dry conditions through the first part of
Friday. Highs Friday afternoon will be a touch warmer than Thursday
with less wind. Precipitation chances then increase again late in
the day Friday and into the overnight hours. There continues to be a
wide range of solutions regarding the end of the week system this
far out but precipitation amounts do not look to be all that
impressive thus far. Breezy return flow is likely to become
established late Friday through Saturday morning which could work in
tandem with very high astronomical tides to produce some minor
coastal flooding on Saturday.

Like a broken record in progressive flow, yet another wave
approaches late Sunday into Monday bringing another chance for
precipitation and gusty winds. NBM temperature spread remains high
Saturday through Monday given the low predictability pattern this
far out.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Improvement back to VFR by daybreak downwind of
the mountains. MVFR ceilings possibly linger at LEB and HIE
through at least Tue afternoon, and possibly tomorrow night.
Northwesterly gusts of 30-40 kt are likely at all terminals on
Tuesday. Winds gradually ease tomorrow evening, with VFR
prevailing outside of HIE and LEB.

Long Term...Another disturbance brings renewed chances for rain
Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday along with possible
restrictions. West northwest winds will persist with gusts
between 25-35 knots. Another system may bring additional
restrictions and precipitation towards the beginning of the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Westerly gales follow in the wake of cold front as
it crosses the waters by daybreak. High pressure builds in from
the west later today as low pressure deepens across the
Canadian Maritimes. Gales continue into this evening, and then
winds gradually lower to below SCA levels by daybreak on
Wednesday.

Long Term...Seas and winds should relax a bit on Wednesday but
another round of SCA conditions and/or gales is possible late
Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Very high Astronomical high tides later this week will need to be
watched for minor coastal flood potential. Currently window of
concern could be Saturday with the potential of strong
southerly onshore flow and a 11.5ft MLLW tide at Portland
expected.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028-033.
NH...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for NHZ004-006-
     008>010-012>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ150>154.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 9 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Ekster/Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Ekster/Hargrove