326
FXUS61 KGYX 011433 AAA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
933 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
On Tuesday a low pressure system will spread snow over the area
and bring the first widespread accumulation to most areas south
of the mountains. Moderate to heavy snow is likely to affect
at least the afternoon and evening evening commutes on Tuesday
before snow comes to an end. The storm track may still change
and shift the heaviest snow amounts around, but most locations
are expected to see some accumulations. Once that storm exits
the region Wednesday, the rest of the week will be cool and
breezy with mountain snow showers lingering.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message: Temperatures have dropped below freezing while
surfaces remain wet from rain creating conditions favorable for
black ice. Commuters this morning should be aware of slicks
spots.

A secondary cold front crosses this morning bringing chances for
snow showers in the mountains and gusty northwest winds. High
pressure builds in from the west allowing skies to turn mostly
sunny with highs ranging from the upper 20s north to upper 30s
south.

High pressure crests over the area tonight allowing for cold
conditions with lows in the single digits north to the teens
across the south. These cold conditions will prime road surfaces
for accumulating snow that will break out Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

*A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect south of the mountains. Snow
will break out SW to NE Tuesday morning with light accumulations
impacting the morning commute.

*Snowfall rates will intensify through the afternoon
 approaching 1 inch per hour during the evening commute creating
 hazardous travel conditions with visibility dropping to one
 quarter a mile.

Forecast Details:

Latest available NWP guidance is in decent agreement that a
deepening area of low pressure will track from New Jersey to
southeast of Cape Cod Tuesday afternoon spreading snow into the
region Tuesday morning. This low will progress ENE south of Nova
Scotia Wednesday morning with snow tapering off NW to SE during the
pre dawn hours. Available incoming 00Z guidance has started to
converge on QPF while there remains a meaningful spread in
ensembles. Notably the 00Z NAM has backed off the most with
subtle downward trends in other mesoscale models. Current QPF
forecast ranges from around 0.5 inches along southeast facing
slopes to near 1 inch along the coast with around 0.3 inches
north of the mountains.

In addition to ensemble spread in QPF, other points of uncertainty
exist around the development of a quasi-stationary mesoscale snow
band and the inland penetration of the coastal front. A mesoscale
snowband acts to rob moisture from the northwest side of the band
creating a tight gradient in snowfall while areas under the band
could see up to a foot of snow. Latest hi res guidance also suggests
the coastal front may push inland across SE New Hampshire and
coastal Maine where snow may mix with or change to rain at
times. The current snowfall forecast has not changed that much
from previous forecast except for a slight decrease across SE NH
and coastal York County and slight increase across interior
central Maine. Given the impacts from this system are still over
36 hours away have opted to hold onto the Winter Storm Watch
with this package. The going forecast calls for 6 to 10 inches
across the Watch area with lower amounts along the immediate
coast. Limited moisture will keep amounts north of the mountains
in the 3 to 5 inch range.

Northeast to north winds will ramp up Tuesday evening through
Tuesday night as low pressure treks east of the Gulf of Maine.
Peak wind gusts will be around 25 mph along the coastal plain to
30 mph along the immediate coast. Snow tapers off after midnight
from NW to SE with accumulating snow ending during the pre dawn
hours. Lows Tuesday night will range from the teens north to the
20s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Any leftover snow will wind down quickly early Wed morning...with
northwest winds taking over and upslope snow showers developing.
That will generally continue thru the remainder of the work
week...with another stronger trof arriving over the weekend into
early next week. The rest of the forecast beyond Tue night is
NBM due to the focus on the storm.

One potential important thing to note is a strong arctic front
is slated to move across the forecast area during the day on
Thursday. It appears to be very sharp in the models and this may
portend to a period of heavy squalls accompanying it. This
bears watch. In the immediate wake of the front later Thursday
winds could get close to advisory criteria. Wind chills are
likely to be the coldest of the season thus far Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Conditions improve into sunrise with VFR likely
today through tonight. NW winds will gust 20-25 kts around mid
day. Clouds thicken and lower late tonight with snow
overspreading the area Tuesday morning. IFR to LIFR conditions
are likely late Tuesday morning into Tuesday night in snow that
could reduce visibility to 1/4 mile at times. Conditions improve
to VFR from NW to SE late Tuesday night.


Long Term...Storm pulls away and winds turn northwesterly VFR
returns quickly to places south of the mtns Wed AM...while HIE
will likely see a continuation of upslope clouds and snow
showers with local MVFR. A sharp cold front is expected to move
across the forecast area from W to E Thursday. This could mean
snow squalls and very gusty SFC winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gale force gusts are coming to an end but a
secondary cold front is forecast to cross the waters today as
high pressure builds in. Winds remain gusty and so I have
converted the gale warning to SCAs for all waters. High
pressure crests over the waters tonight allowing winds to
subside. Low pressure tracks near the Gulf of Maine Tuesday
afternoon bringing building seas and possibly Gales in its wake
Tuesday night.


Long Term...Winds are expected to diminish markedly as the day
progresses on Wednesday. However they are likely to increase
once again to SCA levels Wed night ahead of the next cold front.
Gales likely Thu into Fri in the wake of arctic front.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for MEZ012>014-018>028-033.
NH...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for NHZ004>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Ekster/Legro