953
FXUS61 KGYX 221857
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
257 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Refined precipitation trends through this evening, with a focus
of thunder chances across portions of western Maine. This threat
has ended for much of New Hampshire and far southern Maine.
Lowered overnight temperatures Thursday night through Friday
night in anticipation of good conditions for radiational
cooling.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Showers and thunderstorms continue until this evening for
western Maine, with a cooler night expected. Some storms may be
strong to severe with mainly a gusty to damaging wind threat.

2. Dry, seasonable weather prevails Thursday through the
weekend under high pressure. Shower chances increase early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

A cold front will continue to push across the forecast area
into early evening. At current writing, the front is roughly
bisecting the CWA. This front has been responsible for forcing
shower and thunderstorm development this morning through early
afternoon, and should continue to bring some showers and storms
through 6pm. Behind, more stable air is working its way in and
marks the end of convective potential for the day.

The convective environment has been characterized by good deep
layer shear of 30 to 45 kts and RAP surface CAPE of greater than
1500 j/kg. Areas that have seen morning cloud cover peel back
to boost temps towards the lower 80s and complement dew points
in the upper 60s to around 70 have faired well in storm
maintenance. However, dry air aloft has been a limiting factor
as well as a mid-level inversion (apparent on 12z GYX RAOB).
This shouldn`t be enough to inhibit gusty to damaging gusts from
strong to severe storms, with a lesser and more isolated
hail/tornado threat.

Behind the cold front tonight, cooler and drier air will invade
from the northwest. Expect some breeze to continue overnight to
keep most of the area from decoupling, but CAA should still
usher in temperatures falling into the low to mid 50s along the
coast and interior...and mid to upper 40s across the northern
mountains/valleys. Otherwise, skies clear with some clouds
lingering upwind of the mountains.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Strong high pressure south of the Great Lakes will gradually
spread eastward. The high is broad, and will effectively shut
off moisture transport to the region through the weekend. While
daytime temps should still push into seasonable temperatures
ranges, overnight lows should fall a couple degrees below
normal. Light winds overnight with mostly clear skies should
allow for good radiational cooling, and have nudged temperatures
below NBM guidance, particularly Thursday night and Friday
night when the high is roughly right overhead. Could also see
this linger into Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z Thursday...SHRA and TS continue across western ME
this afternoon, mainly north of AUG. Brief reductions to IFR
vis can be expected within these, otherwise VFR. Showers/storms
decrease in coverage this evening as a cold front passes. Expect
a NW wind shift overnight. Low confidence in fog tonight, but
could form in valleys that saw some rainfall today (lower CT
River Valley, Merrimack, AUG near Kennebec Valley). VFR
Thursday.

Outlook:

Thursday- Sunday: Generally VFR conditions are expected as high
pressure settles over the region. Dry air should limit overnight
valley fog development.

&&

.MARINE...
Waves will continue on a downward trend tonight while they will
still remain at or above 5 feet into early Thursday morning.
A cold front will pass over the waters this evening, with a wind
shift overnight. Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds
Thursday afternoon through the weekend under strong and broad
high pressure entering the region.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ026-027.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cornwell
AVIATION...Cornwell
MARINE...Cornwell