747
FXUS61 KGYX 171733
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
133 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles south of New England Saturday and moves
east Sunday in response to a trough swinging through the Great
Lakes. This trough will send a frontal system into New England
Sunday night and Monday bringing chances for some beneficial
rain. Troughing lingers over the Northeast through next week,
allowing for additional disturbances, and chances of rain, to
enter the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper ridge axis continues to inch towards the forecast area
today...and should be close to overhead by sunrise Sat. So skies
are expected to remain mostly clear tonight and good radiational
cooling conditions are forecast. Opted to blend a little MOS and
25th percentile NBM forecast to bring low temp forecast more in
line with expectations. There will probably be some frost out
there...but mainly in the zones where growing season has ended.
At this time no frost headline are planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Slow moderation in temps is anticipated on Sat. Under the
influence of surface high...subsidence will limit mixing...plus
warmer temps aloft will not have arrived yet. Still looking at
fairly widespread 60s even into the northern valleys.

By Sat night increasing cloud cover and continued WAA will keep
temps on the warmer side. Generally low temps will be at or
above freezing for the majority of locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pattern Overview: The ridge pushes off to the east Sunday
giving way to what looks like an active week. Models are in
decent agreement on a train of upper level disturbances moving
through the region over the course of the work week.

Impacts and Key Messages:
* The weather pattern turns active next week, with multiple
  chances for widespread showers. Rainfall amounts remain
  uncertain, but significant impacts are not expected at this
  time.

Details: Sunday: The ridge axis moves off to the east Sunday
increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a potent trough
over the Great Lakes Region. This warms 850mb temperatures to
around +11C and skies should remain clear enough through the
peak heating hours for surface temperatures to climb into the
mid- to upper 60s areawide. Flow turns onshore at the surface as
low pressure approaches from the west, so the immediate coast
may stay a bit cooler as the ocean temperature now well into the
50s. The upper low cuts off Sunday night and thicker cloud
cover builds in out ahead of it keeping low temperatures on the
mild side (mid- to upper 40s areawide). A few showers are
possible heading toward sunrise Monday, but the bulk of the
precipitation holds off.

Monday and Tuesday: The latest developments in regards to the
first disturbance early in the week is that confidence in
precipitation timing has increased, but rainfall amounts remain
uncertain. The GFS has come on board with the Euro, having the
low taking the southerly track (The Canadian remains an
outlier), but in turn the Euro is starting to follow the GFS in
speeding the system up. The GFS is still the fastest, but this
increases confidence in seeing a period of drier weather at some
point on Tuesday. There has been a notable uptick in QPF in the
Euro ensemble suite with probabilities of greater than a half
inch now 60-80% (the higher probabilities are in the mountains),
but the GFS ensemble suite remains unimpressed and is holding
steady with probabilities of 20-40%. As mentioned yesterday,
this is likely due to the progressiveness of the system, the GFS
wants Tuesday to be mostly dry, while the Euro has showers at
least into Tuesday evening. There are a few other considerations
that have me leaning toward the Euro solution, the first being
that PWATs are going to be modest. The axis of higher PWATs
remains offshore, but over our area they are currently modeled
around one inch. The second is that it looks like we will have a
~50kt low level jet overhead, so some jet dynamics are bound to
come into play here, developing some heavier showers. That
being said, we will also have to keep a close eye on the
potential for a wind threat to develop. The global models have
the tight gradient and low level jet, but their lower resolution
is assuming it will be too cloudy to mix any gusts down and
can`t resolve a convective wind threat. Don`t be surprised if
this becomes a talking point as this system begins to creep into
the CAMs, but for now expecting generally 25-30 mph gusts on
Monday seems reasonable.

Wednesday-Friday: There is decent agreement among the global
models that the pattern remains active through the work week,
with another upper low swinging in behind the first one Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning. This is then followed by a weaker open
wave late in the week. I will leave it at that to avoid too much
speculation (and writing a tome), but the takeaway should be to
keep a close eye on your forecast as we work out the details of
each one (and maybe keep a raincoat or umbrella handy next
week).

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions expected thru Sat night for most
locations. Cannot totally rule out some CT River Valley fog
tonight and again Sat night...but confidence is not high enough
to include in the TAF at LEB at this time.

Long Term...VFR prevails through the day Sunday, with ceilings
thickening and lowering Sunday night. Monday sees generally MVFR
conditions with showers. Some brief IFR restrictions can`t be
ruled out if heavier rain materializes. Wind gusts 20-30kts are
likely as well, especially at coastal terminals. Some fog may
develop after around 06Z Tuesday as rain tapers off and skies
clear a bit. Some improvement may be seen for a period on
Tuesday, but another system swings in Tuesday night so it will
likely be brief.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions continue outside the bays
today...but winds and seas continue to diminish. Current SCA
looks pretty good on timing...but south of Cape Elizabeth some
lingering seas near 5 ft are possible into tonight.

Long Term...Seas build back to around 5ft Sunday night as a low
pressure system approaches the waters. Wind gusts will also
increase Sunday night with Monday featuring frequent gusts
25-30kts. Winds calm below 25kts Monday night, with seas slower
to subside and likely not falling below 5ft until late in the
day Tuesday. An SCA may be needed in the mid-week timeframe as
another system passes through.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Baron