715
FXUS61 KGYX 010635
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
235 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds continue through this morning as low pressure drifts
into the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure builds in through
the weekend with seasonably cool temperatures. A series of
shortwave troughs move through next week, bringing generally
cool and at times unsettled conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Low pressure will accelerate into the Canadian Maritimes today,
with a broad wind field gradually moving east of the Gulf of
Maine.

This wind field will be the focus of weather early this morning.
Flow in the low levels remain stout, with a 850mb jet of 40-50kt
just exiting the coast through noontime. Once sfc temps begin to
increase this morning, mixing will tend to bring westerly gusts
35 to 40 mph through the coast and interior. This may only be
for a 3 to 4 hour window before the flow aloft translates off
the coast. While it will remain breezy through the remainder of
the afternoon, lighter winds aloft will translate to afternoon gusts
mainly in the 20 to 30 mph range.

Secondary aspect of this departing low will be low level
moisture supporting upslope rain and snow showers, mainly for
the higher terrain in the western CWA. Due to high flow, can
expect some sprinkles to make it over the mountain barrier, but
moisture is shallow and will rely on orographic lift to make the
most out of precip chances. Either way, outdoor message for the
weekend continues to be the high contrast of conditions in the
Whites. This is where wind chills below zero and freshly fallen
snow clash with barren trail heads above freezing. As of 2am
Sat morning, MWOBS recorded a 126 mph wind gust with this system
and present wind chills are running around 5 deg F below zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Ridging for the second half of the weekend will bring relief
from the recent blustery conditions. Winds slacken this evening
and remain (comparatively) light on Sunday. A light breeze will
still make the near full sun conditions feel cool as temps top
in the lower 50s, with mid to low 40s in the mountains.

Drier air in the column will also mean an end to mountain
showers tonight. However wind chills will still be running
around freezing and below zero for the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pattern Overview: Generally zonal flow Sunday night will
transition to southwesterly flow aloft Monday as a trough
approaches the area. This trough and an attendant cold front
cross Monday night bringing a chance for precipitation. The
trough departs Tuesday with broad ridging building in for
Wedensday. Another trough looks to approach late mid-week which
would bring another chance for precipitation. The end of the
week looks much more uncertain, but models are trending toward a
rainy start to the weekend.

Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather impacts expected.
* The pattern remains active with a couple chances for
  precipitation through next week.

Details: Sunday Night: Zonal flow aloft with high pressure
nosing it at the surface should make for mostly clear skies
Sunday night. This combined with calm winds should allow for
some degree of radiational cooling, dropping temperatures into
the 20s areawide. Some areas along the immediate coast may hang
in the low 30s.

Monday and Tuesday: Flow aloft and at the surface transitions
to southwesterly Monday ahead of a northern stream trough. This
acts to increase clouds and chances for showers heading into the
afternoon. High temperatures should be able to climb into the
upper 40s to low 50s north of the mountains, and into the mid-
to upper 50s to the south, before it gets too cloudy. Models are
in fairly good agreement that the best forcing arrives Monday
night as the trough becomes negatively tilted overhead and a
cold front approaches at the surface. QPF looks light with LREF
probablilites of greater than 0.25 inches in the 20-40 percent
range. Clouds and showers should make for a relatively mild
night with upper 30s and low 40s south of the mountains and low
to mid-30s to the north. The GFS and Canadian are progressive
with the system, keeping Tuesday mostly dry, but the Euro lags
the trough and front a bit and keeps showers going through
Tuesday morning. Either way, aside from upslope rain/snow
showers in the mountains, a good portion of Tuesday looks dry.
Clouds will make the difference in temperatures during the day
with highs in the low to mid-40s in the cloudier north, and in
the low to mid 50s in the clearer south. A tightening pressure
gradient looks to result in wind gusts 25-30 mph across much of
the area which will make it feel a bit colder. The gradient
relaxes Tuesday, but we likely stay well mixed enough for
another comparatively mild night with temperatures in the mid-
to upper 30s south of the mountains, and in the low 30s to the
north.

Wednesday-Friday: Uncertainty becomes apparent mid- to late
week as models try to resolve another system. They are in
somewhat good agreement that Wednesday sees some high pressure
in the area making for a dry day. The models than diverge on the
location of a low pressure system Wednesday night into
Thursday. The Euro has quite a strong inside running low
pressure system that would make for a rainy and windy second
part of the week. The GFS and Canadian have a much more
progressive and weaker low pressure along with a deeper trough
that keeps the pressure center more to the south. At this point
the details are just conjecture, but this does instill some
confidence we see something around this Wednesday night/Thursday
period. If you want a dry Friday you`ll want to root for the
Euro and Canadian as they bring deep layer ridging overhead. The
GFS is more progressive with a trough. Lots to keep an eye on
as an active pattern continues!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...West winds remain strong early this morning through
noon local time. Gusts 25-35kt are most likely, with a few
gusts to 40kt possible in a narrow window after sunrise...mainly
for southern NH and coastal ME terminals. Winds then slacken
this afternoon, becoming less than 15 kt this evening and
overnight. -SHRASN possible in proximity to the White Mountains
today into this evening, these taper overnight. VFR ceilings
expected with no hinderance to vis, with MVFR ceilings towards
LEB and HIE into Sunday.

Long Term...VFR is expected Sunday night through the day
Monday. A disturbance looks to cross the area Monday night into
Tuesday bringing scattered showers and likely at least MVFR
ceilings. We should see a return to VFR Tuesday with an increase
in wind gusts to around 25kts. Wednesday looks to remain VFR at
least through the day with lighter gusts. Another disturbance
may approach Wedensday night with similarly lower ceilings and
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...West gales continue this morning and early
afternoon with wave heights 8 to 10 ft. Winds will tend to
slacken below gale force this afternoon as low pressure pushes
through the Canadian Maritimes. An SCA will then likely be
needed through midnight for winds, and then into early Sunday
morning for continuing seas 4 to 6 ft.

Long Term...Sub-SCA conditions are expected Sunday night
through the day Monday. Then, a disturbance approaches the area
building in SCA wind gusts and seas overnight Monday through
Tuesday night. There may be a break in SCA conditions Wednesday
through Wednesday night, but another disturbance crosses,
bringing SCA winds and seas back for Thursday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Baron/Hargrove