971
FXUS61 KGYX 171032 AAA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
632 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
One more hot and humid day is in store as a cold front will
approach and eventually cross the region overnight. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front
through the day today. A few storms may be strong to severe, and
all rain may be heavy at times considering how humid the air
mass is. Much drier weather arrives Friday, with comfortable
temperatures and breezy westerly winds. The cooler and drier
weather will continue into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.
Mostly included expanding cloud cover.

Previous discussion...Marine fog and stratus continue to push
inland this morning...but it remains shallow. This is evident on
satellite...as fog/stratus layer is diverted around the Camden
Hills and not really blossoming until reaching the higher
terrain of Androscoggin and Kennebec Counties. With winds
generally light southwest this should remain the trend thru the
morning.

It will be one more hot and humid day across the area. Temps in
the upper 80s to lower 90s will be common. Slightly more cloud
cover will help to keep the coverage of 90 degree temps and 95
plus degree heat indices limited to parts of southern NH. The
heat advisory remains in effect for those areas.

Otherwise attention will be on the approaching cold front. A
well defined S/WV trof is crossing into the Great Lakes this
morning and will be merging with decaying convection over MI.
However the convective picture is rather complicated today.
There will likely be some WAA convective activity early
today...followed by the front itself in the evening. Each will
carry different hazard threats. Any early convection will have
more favorable shear profiles for supercells and potential hail.
The later convection has straighter forecast hodographs but a
more favorable thermodynamic profile for wind gusts or
downbursts. SPC has upgraded the severe outlook for today to
slight risk...even if the coverage may remain more scattered. I
currently have gusty winds and small hail attached the the
midday and evening thunder. I also have heavy rain wording
attached given the PWAT values well above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Cold front will cross the region tonight. Finally some drier air
will work into the area and flush out the humidity. It may take
until morning...but once it does it should happen all at once
with westerly breezy winds kicking up. Opted to bump winds/gusts
up from NBM based on mixing and wind profiles aloft. Aside from
choppy conditions on local waterways it will be a very pleasant
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Update...Little change to the extended from the latest NBM
guidance. A rather small tweak...but did lower thunder chances
for Sun afternoon as the local area does not look to be in a
favorable synoptic location for elevated chances.

Previous discussion...
Overview:
*High Pressure moves in for the weekend

*Cold front moves in Saturday night into Sunday

*High Pressure returns for the start of next week.

Details:
A zonal 500mb pattern should allow for near-average temperatures
for the end of the week. Temperatures generally look to be in
the upper 70s and lower 80s on Saturday. High pressure should
keep things mostly dry Saturday.

Saturday night, a cold front arrives from the west.  The front
should move through the area during the day Sunday, and should being
some showers and storms to the area. Uncertainty is still high on
the exact placement of the front and its parent low, but conditions
should generally improve through the day Sunday.

Early next week, high pressure moves in with a mostly zonal pattern
remaining. Highs will be pretty similar to what they should be
Friday and Saturday, with upper 70s and lower 80s forecast Sunday
through the first half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Areas of LIFR CIGs mainly creeping into parts of
western ME this morning. This is occurring mainly over the
Midcoast into the Kennebec River Valley. The LIFR visibility is
largely confined to the immediate coastline...including RKD.
This will more or less slowly expand thru sunrise. AUG and RKD
are the only terminals forecast to be impacted by this marine
layer. There will be a threat for SHRA/TSRA at all terminals
this afternoon and evening...but more likely at HIE and LEB than
the others. Local MVFR or lower is possible in any convection.
VFR conditions expected tonight thru Fri...with breezy
conditions during the day.

Long Term...VFR expected through the day on Friday and Saturday.
Saturday evening through the first half of Sunday, restrictions
may lower as a cold front moves through the region, bringing
showers and storms. Conditions gradually improve Sunday and VFR
returns by Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Areas of fog will be present on the local
waters...especially north of Casco Bay thru tonight. Showers or
thunderstorms may hold together long enough to reach the waters
this evening...and may contain gusty winds if they do. Much
drier air will arrive late tonight or Fri morning. Westerly
winds may gust up to 25 kt at times.

Long Term...Winds slacken through Friday evening, and shift to
southerlies at 8-12kts by the end of the day Saturday. Winds
lighten up by the second half of Sunday, with a wind shift back
to Northwesterlies expected by Monday morning. 2-4 ft seas are
expected through the whole period and SCA issuance is not likely
at this time.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ022-
     025>028.
NH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ012-013.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Baron/Ekster
LONG TERM...Ekster/Palmer
AVIATION...Legro
MARINE...Legro