012
FXUS61 KGYX 260034
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
834 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure crosses to our N tonight, and could bring a
few showers to the mountains. Wednesday will be dry and
continued quite warm as high pressure builds in briefly. Low
pressure will bring another round of showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms Wednesday night with less warm and drier air
arriving for the remainder of the work week. Another front
arrives this weekend with another chance for showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure builds in for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
830pm Update...Temps will begin to fall now that breeze has
diminished, but overcast deck is also moving in aloft. This is
ahead of an area of showers currently moving across Upstate NY.
This will bring the chance of light rain to much of the interior
CWA overnight, but not expecting a wetting rain.

Previous Discussion...
Sfc ridging beginning to break down this afternoon as 500 MB
wave to the west start to erode the upstream side of the ridge.
This wave, which move through tonight is generally weak and stay
mainly to our N, where the best forcing will remain. Still,
could see a few showers moving through the mtns overnight,
probably closer to midnight and thru the pre-dawn hours.
Otherwise, cirrus and some mid level clouds will move into the
area later tonight as well. This plus a weak boundary lyr SW
flow, will prevent most rad cooling from occurring and mins will
mostly be in the 60s, low 60s N and mid to upper 60s S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Another, more potent wave, approaches from the W on Wed, but
they is some weak anticyclonic flow at 500 MB between the two
and this should make for a dry day on Wed, with breezy WSW flow.
There will be more cirrus around on Wed, but temps aloft will
also be a little higher, so its kind of a wash on warming vs.
cooling components and mostly temps will be similar to Tue,
although the N zones may be a bit cooler given more clouds. His
range from around 80 in the mtns to the mid to upper 80s in the
S. Again, the sea breeze will struggle against the stronger
offshore flow, and probably only the beaches will be cooler for
most of the day. Also, clouds are likely to thicken across the
whole CWA, but later in the day.

The 500 MB wave will cross the CWA Wed night. This will bring a
round of showers and maybe a period of steady rain to the area
overnight. A thunderstorm is not out of the question either. The
system is fast moving so much of the significant rain will be
done by Thu morning, but still see a half to three quarters of
inch in some spots as this wave does some phasing and tilts
negative as it crosses the CWA. The front behind this system
should make it thru the mtns , but will stall across the CWA.
So mins range from the mid to upper 50s in the N, to the low to
mid 60s in the S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overview...

A cold front clears the coastline Thursday morning, with the
upper level low swinging through during the day on Thursday.
High pressure builds across New England through Friday, then
shifts east on Saturday. Another cold front crosses through New
England Saturday night, with the upper level crossing through on
Sunday. A large high pressure center builds in from the west
early next week.

Details...

Lingering showers associated with the passing cold front
continue into Thursday morning, with a period of clearing by
late morning. Scattered pop up showers and clouds likely develop
by the early afternoon hours across northern areas across the
high terrain, with some drifting south of the mountains through
the afternoon. Toward the coast likely stays dry most of the
afternoon, but a pop up shower can`t even be ruled out here.

Conditions dry out by Friday as high pressure noses in from the
southwest. Highs look seasonable in the 70s to low 80s during
the day, with lows on the cooler side in the dry airmass, with
overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. Moisture begins to return and
temps moderate going into Saturday as the high moves offshore
and winds turn more southwesterly.

Showers and storms approach western areas by late in the day on
Saturday as the front approaches. Saturday night looks mostly
wet and thundery as a deepening area of low pressure moves
along the passing front. The upper level low behind the front
likely lingers into Sunday, enhancing the chance for afternoon
showers and storms. A much more expansive high pressure center
builds in from the west, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass
for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR is expected through the sunset on Wed, but a
fast moving, but potent low will quickly cross the area Wed
night, and bring terminals to IFR or lower by around midnight
through the morning.

Long Term...Showers clear the coast Thursday morning. VFR
prevails, but brief periods of showers and MVFR ceilings are
likely Thursday afternoon across interior terminals. VFR returns
for Friday and Saturday, with nighttime valley fog possible
Thursday night and Friday night. Showers and some storms are
likely Saturday night with MVFR to IFR ceilings likely.
Conditions improve on Sunday, but brief afternoon showers and
MVFR ceilings are possible Sunday afternoon. Conditions then
improve for Sunday night and early next week, with mainly VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA wind gusts and 5 foot seas possible tonight and
Wednesday in advance of a cold front. Temperature inversion
makes uncertainty a little higher at this time.

Long Term...A cold front clears the waters on Thursday, with
high pressure building in for Friday. A cold front approaches on
Saturday, with SCA conditions possible in freshening
southwesterly winds ahead of the front. High pressure then
builds across the waters early next week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa/Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Clair
AVIATION...
MARINE...