426
FXUS61 KGYX 300547
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
147 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low slowly moves east across the area today and exits
into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday. Mostly dry conditions likely
prevail through the weekend, although the presence of the upper
low will bring slight chances for showers today. Broad high
pressure builds in Monday and will provide mostly dry conditions
through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather impacts are expected.

The last of the showers are moving through Waldo and southern
Somerset counties and out of our area at the time of this
writing. Some showers may still come onshore on the Midcoast
over the next couple of hours, but we should be done with all
activity by daybreak. Overall, many locations received a
beneficial rain with amounts generally 0.25-0.75". There were
even some isolated amounts up to 1.50".

With showers and thunderstorms out of the way, the holiday
weekend looks quite pleasant. We will still be under the
influence of an upper level low as it becomes centered north of
the International Border today. This likely results in more
clouds than sun for much of the area as a cold pool aloft aids
in the development of clouds, thickening heading into the
afternoon. Shortwaves rounding the upper low may help to touch
off some showers during the afternoon hours as well. While
showers are most likely in the mountains where lift is
maximized, the 00Z CAMs are showing some isolated showers in the
foothills and near the southern Maine coast. This suggests the
cold pool may be a bit more robust, but mid level moisture looks
fleeting in southern zones as well so kept low chance PoPs in
the foothills, but I am skeptical on shower activity near the
coast. Either way these will be just light nuisance showers. In
the mountains, an isolated rumble of thunder and/or a heavier
downpour aren`t out of the question. The increased cloud cover
will hold temperatures in the low to mid 70s south of the
mountains, and in the low to mid 60s to the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* Apparent temperatures in the higher terrain (above 2500 ft)
  will fall below freezing tonight. Anyone planning to camp in
  these areas should be prepared for winter-like conditions.

Tonight: Skies should clear south of the mountains leading to a
fairly uniform temperature gradient across the area, with most
locations falling into the 40s (lower to the north, higher to
the south). This is a result of the upper low shifting eastward
and cooler air advecting out of Canada. This will drive
temperatures in the higher terrain down to near freezing and
with winds staying up overnight there, apparent temperatures
will feel well below freezing the higher up one ventures. Anyone
planning to camp in the mountains this weekend should be well
aware of this and plan for some winter like conditions. Patchy
fog development is likely in areas that stay clear.

Sunday: The upper low becomes centered over Atlantic Canada
Sunday, but models suggest a shortwave trough axis reaching back
through our area. With a cold pool still present, I would
expect a similar situation to today (Saturday), but cooler drier
air continuing to be advected in may limit clouds, and should
certainly limit showers, making for a sunnier day in many
locations. Would expect any showers to stay confined to the
mountains, but if the cold pool remains robust it would not be
out of the question to see a shower elsewhere. However, the 00Z
CAMs are not as enthusiastic about it so I have hedged away from
it as well, keeping PoPs in the mountains. Expect a slightly
warmer day with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 70s
south of the mountains, and into the upper 60s and low 70s to
the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overnight NBM Update...No significant changes noted in the
latest NBM with PoPs generally less than 15 percent for much
next week until Thursday and Friday when chance PoPs are
introduced.

Previously...

Key Message: Near to below normal temps continue thru the
extended. Very little in the way of addition precip after
today...so continued drying anticipated.

Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated beyond
maintaining/deepening drought conditions. A well timed high
pressure could also bring the potential for frost in some
northern valleys...but confidence in timing is low on that.

Forecast Details: Lower heights/colder temps aloft will
continue to promote diurnal cumulus development Monday while
incoming high pressure will keep the area mostly dry. Day time
temperatures generally moderate early next week, while it will
be seasonably cool overnight...where surface high pressure and
dry conditions will be favorable for radiational cooling. The
timing of the surface high axis will dictate which nights are
the coldest...but some northern valleys may potentially be
frosty.

The main story continues to be that beyond the weekend there is
not much rain in the forecast again. Drought conditions may
continue to expand.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Any fog that develops early this morning will
quickly clear after 12Z. Otherwise VFR ceilings are expected to
prevail through the day with some isolated shower activity in
the area this afternoon. Northeasterly wind gusts around 15kts
are likely this afternoon. Patchy fog development is expected
again at valley terminals tonight, with VFR otherwise prevailing
through the day Sunday.

Long Term... Generally VFR conditions thru the extended. Some
local MVFR is possible at KHIE Monday. Otherwise local IFR or
lower in valley locations where fog is expected. Given the dry
weather this may stay limited to HIE and LEB.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Wind gusts and seas remain below SCA criteria
through Sunday as high pressure builds over the waters. Winds
will be generally northeasterly, with afternoon seabreezes.
Winds gusts are expected to be generally 10-15kts, with seas
2-3ft.

Long Term...Ridging and surface high pressure will build in and
dominate weather thru next week. As a result winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA thresholds.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Legro/Schroeter