218
FXUS61 KGYX 290733
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
333 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Quebec will send a cold front across the area
today bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. An upper low
will slide across northern Maine through the weekend that will
continue chances for showers, mainly across the mountains and
north. High pressure builds in Sunday and Monday for fair
weather and temperatures warming back into the upper 70s by
Monday. Dry conditions are likely to prevail through the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A vigorous shortwave digs into the Northeast today, bringing
rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the day. Convection
is expected to blossom across New Hampshire and western Maine by
late morning as cold air moves in aloft. Lines of showers and
storms pivot northeastward through the day, with most areas
expected to see multiple rounds through the day.

Western New Hampshire likely sees one round during the early to
mid morning hours, and then remains mostly dry through the
remainder of the day. Elsewhere, multiple rounds are expected
through the day, and continue into the evening. With multiple
rounds of rain, the focus for higher rainfall amounts of a half
inch to an inch of rain looks likely from the Lakes region of
New Hampshire through the mountains and foothills of Maine. Some
locally higher amounts are also likely with some heavier
downpours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Showers and storms weaken through the evening, but with cold
air continuing to move in aloft shower activity looks likely to
continue into the overnight across the northern mountains and
into central Maine. Elsewhere, gradually drying is expected
through the overnight. With the rain today, some patchy fog is
expected through the overnight.

The upper level low remains overhead during the day on
Saturday. The day starts off on the sunnier side, but with the
cold pool aloft clouds and showers develop by the early
afternoon. Most of the showers are likely to be across the
higher terrain and into central Maine. Isolated showers are
expected elsewhere, with more clouds than sun for the afternoon
in most spots. Temps only warm into the low to mid 60s across
the north, with low to mid 70s elsewhere. Most of the warming
occurs through the morning, and then temps will generally hold
steady through the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
01Z NBM Update...No significant changes with the latest NBM
through the long term period. A trend to mostly dry conditions
are likely by Monday with surface high pressure likely to hold
over the Northeast through the middle of next week. Troughing
deepens over the eastern CONUS the second half of next week that
may allow better moisture transport into the Northeast.
Ensembles suggest the next shot at some beneficial rainfall will
arrive towards the end of next week.

Previously...

Key Message: Some cooler weather thru the extended...but
continued dry conditions will likely contribute to at least
maintaining drought status.

Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated beyond
maintaining/deepening drought conditions. A well timed high
pressure could also bring the potential for frost in some
northern valleys...but confidence in timing is low on that.

Forecast Details: The extended will begin with upper low
lifting out of the region. Currently the NBM has some showery
weather lingering into Sun...especially over the higher
terrain...but dry by Mon. However DESI does show two clusters
with a deeper trof/cooler temps aloft lingering over the region
into Mon. This is roughly 35 to 40 percent of ensemble
members...and would likely result in some afternoon convective
showers. If ensemble forecasts continue and NBM still does not
show much in the way of PoP I may look to increase them with
subsequent forecast.

Otherwise temps will average near to below normal. The building
ridge will be of CONUS origin...so not particularly cool.
However a well timed surface high would lead to some efficient
radiational cooling and potential for frost in northern valleys.


The main story will be that beyond the weekend there is not
much rain in the forecast again. So unless we get significant
rain in the next couple of days...the drought conditions are
likely to worsen.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Some valley fog at HIE and LEB is possible through
early morning, while some marine fog and stratus remains
possible at AUG and RKD through mid morning. Multiple rounds of
showers and a few thunderstorms bring restrictions to all
terminals through the afternoon, with periods of MVFR conditions
most likely. Conditions gradually improve tonight, but showers
remains possible at AUG and RKD through the overnight. Valley
fog is possible at LEB and HIE tonight. Mainly VFR conditions
return tomorrow, but brief showers will be possible across
northern terminals through the daytime.


Long Term...Mostly VFR conditions expected in the extended.
Heading into next week high pressure may promote more in the
way of valley fog...and IFR or lower conditions for the favored
sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Showers and storms move through the waters today
as a cold front approaches from the west. The front clears the
waters tomorrow morning, with high pressure gradually building
in on Saturday.


Long Term...With upper low lifting out and ridging/surface high
building in for next week...winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA thresholds.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Legro/Schroeter