906
FXUS61 KGYX 241027
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
627 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall near the coast today as low pressure
forms along it. Showers will develop today as the low develops.
A few thunderstorms will be possible as well. High pressure
then settles in for Tuesday before another cold front moves in
for Wednesday night. Best chances for rain and thunderstorms
will be late Wednesdays, but this should clear out Thursday as
high pressure returns for the end of the week. Temperatures and
humidity will swing with the passing of each frontal boundary.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
625 AM Update...

Forecast remains on track with cold front gradually traversing
the region with drier air being ushered in behind it. Dewpoint
values in the CT River Valley have dropped into the 50s and that
trend should continue eastward. Showers and thunderstorms are
still expected to develop, especially over central ME, by early
afternoon. No changes to the going forecast.

Previously...

A cold front currently pushing into our western zones as of 3
AM has pretty much lost all its associated shower and
thunderstorm activity. However, with a warm and humid air mass
still in place with northward advancing warm front we cannot
rule out a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm early this
morning. Temperatures on the coastal plain especially north of
PWM are warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s at this hour as
the warm front finally pushes northward in those areas.

As a relatively deep mid and upper level low moves southeastward
from Quebec this morning, low pressure is expected to develop
over central ME in the vicinity of triple point. This will once
again allow for an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage
by late morning in the mountains, spreading southward as
heating increases. The highest concentration of showers today
will be in the mountains southward into the foothills of ME,
continuing southward to the Midcoast of ME by mid afternoon.
This is where the atmosphere will become most unstable and where
the best forcing for ascent will occur. A few thunderstorms
could produce gusty winds and small hail before the stabilizing
effects of rainfall takes over late in the afternoon. With the
flow aloft slowing down markedly, a few slow moving downpours
will be likely and could produce localized flooding.

Elsewhere in the forecast area, the chances of precipitation
will be less, but a few showers or a thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out this afternoon.

Highs will be in the 60s in the mountains to the upper 70s and
lower 80s at lower elevations where downsloping winds aid in
heating.

NW Winds will gust 20 to 25 MPH by late afternoon, especially in
the mountains and western zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Showers will dissipate this evening with the loss of heating.
Clearing will take place from west to east late tonight as low
pressure moves away from the region.

Dry weather with significant warming is expected Tuesday. Highs
will be well into the 80s, with some readings around 90 possible
in the south. Dew point values will be much lower than they have
been lately so heat indices should not be an issue.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Return flow Tuesday night will usher in warmer and more humid
conditions for Wednesday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s
for much of the area. A cold front sinking south out of the
Great Lakes on Wednesday will support scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday night. The forcing with
the system Wednesday night is concerning, but for now the
instability ahead of it could be a limiting factor. Will have
to watch for heavy rain producers as well as some concern about
strong winds, but these will be conditional and timing dependent
so confidence is low at this time. The front will bring a brief
cool down for the latter part of the work week. The airmass
starts to modify with surface high moving in Friday. Dew points
in the 50s will mean very tolerable humidity levels for late
June. Another frontal system approaches from the Great Lakes
over the weekend, bringing another opportunity for showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...A return to VFR is expected most areas this
morning. However, with upper level low pressure moving overhead
with attendant showers, IFR conditions will continue/return to
the mountains, with a period of MVFR cigs likely later this
afternoon and early evening north of a KLEB-KPWM line. VFR
conditions return by late tonight and Tuesday

Long Term...Predominantly VFR conditions are then expected
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, followed by another
increased risk of TSRA by Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Low-end SCA continues for today for the offshore
waters, with seas continuing to provide low-end SCA conditions
tonight off the Midcoast.

Long Term...
- Increased thunderstorm risk Wednesday Night

 - Brief elevated winds and seas mid-week

A potent cold front will move through the waters Wednesday Night or
early Thursday and will feature an increased risk of thunderstorms.
Ahead of the front, elevated winds and seas will linger, with SCA
conditions possible. Southerly flow then quickly returns by
Wednesday and Thursday, with subsiding seas for late week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Ekster/Jamison