615
FXUS61 KGYX 030554
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1254 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern expected over the next week, with
multiple fronts bringing periods of rain and mountain snow. The
first front will push through on Monday night with windy conditions
expected on Tuesday. Another weak system with rain/snow showers
by mid-week, with another frontal system expected by the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cold start to the day with widespread 20s across the region
under surface inversions. Temperatures should rebound quickly as
the surface high pressure pushes off to the east with southerly
return flow becoming established ahead of an approaching cold
front from Quebec. In addition, a developing low pressure system
from the Carolina coast will be moving off to the northeast.
Cloud cover will be on the increase throughout the day but
temperatures should still rebound into the upper 50s outside of
the mountains. Rain shower activity will be on the increase
towards sunset as showers from the coastal skirt coastal areas
and showers from the front approach western NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
The front moves through during the evening hours tonight, with
showers likely across the whole forecast area. A brief period of
moderate to heavy rain is possible during FROPA under some
heavier shower activity. Overall, rainfall amounts will be
widespread quarter of an inch, but can`t rule out isolated high
end amounts up around 0.5" in some areas. Front quickly pushes
out of the region by midnight. Upslope rain and snow showers
develop across the higher terrain after midnight, with enough
moisture to bring accumulating snowfall to the higher peaks
above 3000ft. Overall, amounts will be light. Tuesday`s weather
story will be dominated by gusty northwest winds as 850mb winds
increase to 50kts with mixing heights up to around 4000ft. This
will support wind gusts well into the 30 mph with some isolated
gusts over the lakes and lee-side of the mountains up to 45
mph. Limited power outage threat is possible with some downed
branches possible once again. Winds begin to subside by the
sunset as deep mixing is lost and pressure gradient begins to
slacken a bit.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* An active but relatively low impact pattern continues through
  the long term with various chances of precipitation to include
  the first north country valley snow early Thursday morning.
* Gusty winds are likely on Thursday and Saturday with gales
  possible over the coastal waters.
* Potential minor coastal flooding due to a very high
  astronomical tide cycle this week.

Forecast Details:
Tuesday night into Wednesday shortwave ridging is expected with
near seasonal high temperatures and no significant weather
impacts expected.

Wednesday Night through Thursday, next shortwave trough Alberta
Clipper quickly approaches New England. The low pressure system
is expected to strengthen in the Gulf of Maine as it pulls off
to the east into Canada. Some spread exists in the north/south
track which will control the rain/snow elevation. Ensemble mean
does show the potential for some valley snow across Northern NH
and the Western Mountains by Thursday morning. Overall amounts
will be light, but could be the first accumulation snow on
roadways of the season for the north country. Outside of the
mountains, gusty northwest winds are once again expected

Thursday Night through Friday the next shortwave ridge moves
across the area with no significant weather expected.

Saturday through Sunday, return flow will warm the region back ahead
of the next surface cold front and low pressure system. Breezy
southerly winds are possible once again.  Should be in the warm
sector of the next wave with rain expected some time over the
weekend as the front pushes through.  Another low impact event
outside of potential minor coastal flood concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Generally VFR conditions are expected today with some
lowering of cloud bases towards this evening with the arrival of -
RA. Winds will be predominantly out of the south at 5 kts or less
through 12Z Monday before increasing to 15-20 kts this afternoon and
evening. Some MVFR CIGS are likely tonight as -RA continues with
southerly flow prevailing. Improving conditions back to VFR are then
expected on Tuesday with RA ending and winds becoming northwesterly
at 10-20 kts with gusts approaching 35 kts.

Long Term...VFR conditions will continue Tuesday night before
another disturbance brings renewed chances for -RA Wednesday-
early Thursday along with possible restrictions. West-
northwesterly winds will persist with gusts between 25-30 kts.
Another system may bring additional restrictions and
precipitation towards the beginning of the upcoming weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Active marine wx conditions with an approaching
cold front bringing SCA conditions in southwesterly flow ahead
of the front this afternoon and evening. The front crosses the
waters shortly after midnight Monday night, with westerly gales
behind the front on Tuesday.

Long Term...Seas and winds should relax a bit on Wednesday but
another round of SCA conditions and/or gales is possible late
Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Very high Astronomical high tides later this week will need to be
watched for minor coastal flood potential. Currently window of
concern could be Saturday with the potential of strong
southerly onshore flow and a 11.5ft MLLW tide at Portland
expected.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ150>154.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 9 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dumont
SHORT TERM...Dumont
LONG TERM...Dumont
AVIATION...Tubbs
MARINE...Dumont