335
FXUS61 KGYX 271844
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
144 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will cross New England on Friday
bringing a round of snow showers and potential squalls,
especially in the mountains. After high pressure quickly moves
near the region Saturday into Saturday night, low pressure will
draw moisture and precipitation back into the region Sunday.
High pressure then tracks through New England Monday and Monday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Quiet weather continues on this Thanksgiving Day with a surface
ridge over the area. Winds will gust upwards of 25 mph over the
next few hours and then will ease around 4 PM as the sun goes
down.

For tonight, skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy with
seasonably cool temperatures in the 20s for overnight lows. A
shortwave trough stemming from an upper low in Quebec will
approach late and may result in a few snow showers in the
mountains toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper-low will slowly move to the east across Quebec and
send a pretty vigorous shortwave through New England Friday
morning and afternoon. This will not only get snow showers going
in the mountains but will also increase chances for snow
showers outside the mountains as Froude numbers from the NAM and
GFS show flow becoming unblocked/supercritical through the
course of the morning and afternoon. Based forecast soundings
depicting steep low-level lapse rates, upwards of 100 J/kg of
MUCAPE, and sufficient moisture, there`s potential for some of
the snow showers to be heavy with a few snow squalls also
possible, which could even make it all the way to the coast.

Outside of snow showers/squalls, expect partly to mostly cloudy
skies south of the mountains with blustery conditions as gusty
westerly winds will keep wind chills in the 20s. Based on forecast
soundings, looks like gusts will be generally in the 25 to 35 mph
range with a few over 40 mph on the higher end.

Snow showers will wind down south of the mountains as we lose
daylight and as the shortwave crosses to the east. The mountains
will stay mostly cloudy with snow showers continuing through
Friday night as flow and moisture will remain conducive for
upslope precipitation. There may continue to be a bit of spill
over into the foothills as Froudes remain above 1 but not as
high as during the day Friday. It will be chilly night as
temperatures drop into the 20s, but with it remaining breezy,
wind chills will be in the 10s, possibly single digits across
the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Blustery yet again Saturday with gusts 20 to 35 mph. These
  weaken during the afternoon with light winds by the evening.
* Quick moving system through the Great Lakes and Quebec brings
  next chance of rain and snow Sunday.
* Active pattern continues with low pressure tracking into the
  Gulf of Maine Tuesday into Wednesday. Uncertainty remains with
  placement of the low and resulting precipitation
  amounts/types.

Details: The region will still be under a tight pressure
gradient Saturday as low pressure pulls north and high pressure
follows north from the Mid-Atlantic. The channeled NW flow will
make for another blustery and cool day with highs in the mid
20s to upper 30s. Exiting wind field slackens afternoon, but the
morning will be capable of gusts 20-35 mph, especially once
daytime mixing picks up.

After noontime, ridging works its way into the Northeast and
gradient winds subside. After a blustery start, the evening will
trend quite calm with little to no breeze after sunset. While
clouds will be thickening ahead of next weather system Sunday,
there may be a window of good radiational cooling in the evening
to midnight hour. This could lower minimum temps Sat night from
the going forecast which calls for teens to lower 20s.

Next system arrives during the day Sunday featuring a wintry
start with trend towards rain for the coast and some of the
interior. Cold air will be entrenched ahead of the low as it
tracks through the Great Lakes and into Quebec. However, the
escaping high pres to the east and low to the west will open WAA
into the coast. Temps here may rise into the upper 30s to
around 40 before more steady precipitation arrives later. Thus
accumulating snow on the coast remains unlikely. Further inland,
particularly the mountains, snow is more likely for duration of
the event. Question here will be how well the warmer air
percolates into the valleys. This may result in a more elevation
dependent accumulation event in the northwestern CWA. While the
system is progressive, model guidance is pretty agreeable that
greatest precip rates occur during the Sunday afternoon
timeframe. Precip ends west to east, with some lighter mtn snow
showers continuing overnight.

Active pattern continues into next week as high pressure
quickly tracks through on Monday/Mon night, followed by the next
system Tuesday into Wednesday. This one has been turning heads
as recent deterministic guidance brings strong low pressure into
the Gulf of Maine. At this range, there is still a lot of
jockeying with the low`s track, but consensus has been to
include much of the CWA on the cool side, including the coast.
Strength of the system will bear watching, should the low track
through the western Gulf, accumulating snow would be in the
forecast for most points in the forecast area. In addition to
placement, pace will also dictate any potential impacts this
system may bring.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Expecting prevailing VFR through most of tonight
before chances of MVFR ceilings and snow showers increase at HIE
and LEB Friday morning and afternoon with IFR visibilities
possible at times. These will likely continue at HIE through
Friday night. For the rest of the TAF sites, scattered snow
showers may produce brief IFR conditions during the day Friday,
but these chances will decrease around sunset (~21Z Fri).

For winds, expect gusts around 20 kt through around 21Z before
easing this evening. Friday will be breezier with westerly gusts
25- 30 kt, possibly up to 35 kt, during the day.

Long Term...Breezy NW winds continue with VFR Saturday morning
and early afternoon with gusts 20-30 kts. These do taper off
through the afternoon, with light winds overnight. Clouds
thicken and lower into Sunday morning with MVFR ceilings
expanding and some IFR as well. SN and RA will move in with
these clouds, with greatest rates in the afternoon. Precip
should trend RA along the coast, with SN causing more vis issues
inland from a line AUG, LEW, IZG, and CON for the afternoon.
Conditions look to improve Sunday night as the system departs
north.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Solid SCA conditions continue over the waters through
tonight before the gradient tightens Friday, resulting in westerly
gales over the outer waters and SCA conditions. Winds and seas
should begin to come down overnight Friday and toward daybreak
Saturday.

Long Term...Winds remain breezy Saturday, falling below 25 kts
for Sat evening through Sunday morning. High pressure quickly
passes Sat night, with another system approaching Sunday. This
will bring the potential for Gales Sunday night. High pressure
passes the waters on Monday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ150-
     152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for ANZ151.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ153.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Combs
SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Cornwell