686
FXUS61 KGYX 250511
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1211 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure developing over the Great Lakes will send
moisture into New England through the day with light rain developing
tonight. A cold front crosses Wednesday night into Thursday
bringing blustery conditions by Thanksgiving through the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Return flow becomes established today as the surface ridge
pulls off the Mid-Atlantic coast and a developing Ohio River
Valley low rapidly pushes northeast. Clouds will be thickening
and lowering through the day as southerly moisture transport
becomes established at all levels. Isentropic lift overrunning
precipitation will will hold off though throughout the day.
Expect a rebound in temperatures today with above normal
temperatures. Winds will be breezy from the south but overall,
no impactful weather to speak of.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* A brief period of very light icing for mountain valley areas, but
  overall threat is currently low for tonight
* Mostly light beneficial rain is expected Tuesday night through
  Wednesday.

Much needed rain is expected Tuesday night as isentropic lift in the
form of cold front pushes across New England. There is still a
chance for a pocket or two of light freezing rain in the mountain
valleys, but overall confidence remains low as the set-up isn`t
looking conducive. Will continue to trend down the NBM probs
for freezing rain with this package update as cloud cover and
low level mixing will limit radiational cooling after sunset
enough. Road surfaces should also be rather warm, thus limited
threat for any slippery conditions. Overall rainfall amounts
will remain light in the quarter to half an inch rain, with some
locally higher amounts in the mountains. November rainfall
amounts are not promising for ending the ongoing drought as
deficits are up around 1.5" again for this month. Overall no
significant weather impacts expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview: A sharp cold front will cross the region Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, bringing cooler temperatures and gusty
westerly winds. Other than upslope snow across the mountains and
towards the Canadian Border, mainly dry conditions will prevail
Thursday through Saturday with temperatures trending below avg. Our
next chance for more widespread precipitation currently appears to
be centered around the Monday-Tuesday timeframe.

Impacts: West-southwesterly wind gusts up to around 35 mph are
possible on Friday. Otherwise, no significant weather related
impacts are currently expected.

Forecast Details: Vertically stacked low pressure over southern
Quebec will send a sfc cold front southward across New England
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Sharply cooler temperatures
will move in aloft with H8 temperatures falling by around 10C by
Thursday morning. Lingering showers will gradually become mainly
confined to the mountains and far north overnight, with a transition
to snow as the colder air arrives. Low temperatures will range from
the lower 30s across the north with near 40 degrees along the coast
and in southern NH.

We will remain under broad troffing on Thursday with gusty westerly
winds up to around 30 mph. Skies will be partly sunny south of the
mountains with mainly cloudy skies across the mountains and far
north. High temperatures will range from the 30s across the north
with 40s south. Upslope snow is then likely Thursday night across
the north/mountains with partly cloudy skies further to the south as
low temperatures fall mainly into the 20s. Cold and blustery
conditions are then likely Friday through Saturday with high
temperatures mainly into the 30s and lows into the teens and 20s.
Westerly wind gusts up to around 35 mph at times will make it feel
even colder. Snow will also persist across the mountains with
several inches of accumulation possible, especially on Friday.
Latest ensemble based guidance shows our next best chance for
widespread precipitation to occur somewhere during the Monday-
Tuesday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions through the day today with no
significant aviation impacts. Expect conditions to deteriorate
tonight as rain and low ceilings overrun the region as a warm
front pushes through. IFR conditions are likely at most TAF
terminals by midnight tonight. Expect conditions to improve by
Wednesday morning as the main precipitation field moves
northward with isolated showers and variable MVFR ceilings
throughout the day.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are likely through the period, although
upslope flow may result in instances of MVFR CIGS at times at
KHIE. Winds will increase out of the W-SW Thursday through
Friday with gusts up to around 30 kts possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions are expected today as southerly
return flow winds continue to increase through the day with
building seas ahead of the next cold front. Winds could briefly
trend down for a period tonight before increasing once again
through the day on Wednesday with SCA conditions most likely
continuing withe pre-frontal southerly winds.

Long Term...Westerly gales are possible Thursday through Saturday
morning with SCA conditions in the bays. Seas of 6-10 ft
outside of the bays and 1-4 ft in the bays themselves are
possible.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dumont
SHORT TERM...Dumont
LONG TERM...Tubbs