Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
042 FXUS61 KGYX 051732 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1232 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added fog through the morning to reflect current observations. QPF is trending down slightly Friday through Saturday, but soaking rain for the coast remains on the table as well as beneficial rain inland. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A wetter period begins today with scattered showers moving in ahead of a frontal boundary. A soaking rain is likely Friday and Saturday at the coast as the front stalls offshore, with beneficial rain inland as well. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... An initial band of showers crosses the area today as a front approaches from the west, moving into New Hampshire between 8 and 9 AM and reaching the Maine boarder before noon. These showers looks to move out before sunset and ultimately won`t amount to much QPF-wise. Amounts in New Hampshire look to range from a tenth to a quarter with the Seacoast having a better chance of only seeing a few hundredths. The frontal boundary slows and stalls Thursday night with shower activity continuing along it. Models have come to a consensus that it stalls at the coast or just offshore and will become a focus for an axis of heavier rain as it taps into tropical moisture and drives PWATs upwards of 1.25 to 1.40, well above normal for this time of year. However, models show dry air intruding on the back side of the front so the precipitation shield could be pretty sharp as low pressure rides along the front through Friday. This would result in a soaking rainfall confined to the coast with not too much occuring north of the foothills. All hope is not lost for these locations though as models are also suggesting a localized coastal low spinning up on Saturday that would help to push rain further inland, but it would not be at the magnitude the coast sees the day before. As models trend the axis of heavier rain further off shore NBM probabilities of greater than an inch of rain in the Friday through Saturday timeframe have come down quite a bit since this time last night. The coast is now in the 40 to 50 percent range with slightly higher probabilities for the Midcoast. If we drop this down to a half inch we get probabilities 50 to 60 percent from the foothills down to the coast (with closer to 70 percent probabilities at the coast). With 30 to 40 percent probabilities in northern New Hampshire and the Western Maine Mountains. I hate to say it, but it certainly looks like we are trending toward the rug getting pulled again, but at this point any rain is beneficial as many places have not seen measurable rain in over two weeks. Troughing persists into the middle of next week, but at this time it looks like it is only going to be good for upslope rain and snow showers in the mountains with locations south of the mountains returning to mostly dry weather. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday: An organized slug of moisture is moving across NH and Western Maine at midday today bringing with it showers and MVFR visibility. Rain will push out from southwest to northeast through afternoon hours with just spotty rain coverage expected behind. Confidence isn`t high enough to put any other periods of rain in the TAF through 18z tomorrow. Will have to watch Rockland for addition rain towards the end of the period tomorrow. MVFR cigs are expected to lower to IFR by tonight as moist onshore flow continues. Outlook... Friday-Saturday: MVFR conditions likely areawide, with coastal terminals having a higher chance of seeing IFR conditions in rain that may be heavy at times. Sunday-Monday: Returning to VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are generally expected to remain below SCA thresholds into the middle of next week, but as we move into a more active pattern localized low pressure systems and frontal passages may allow for brief windows of marginal SCA conditions. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Baron AVIATION...Dumont MARINE...