279
FXUS61 KGYX 160554
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
154 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low drops south through the Canadian Maritimes today
bringing some clouds and chances for showers over central Maine
and the mountains. High pressure over the Great Lakes gradually
builds along the East Coast Friday and then settles south of New
England over the weekend. A trough swings into the Northeast
early next week send a frontal system into the region Monday
with the pattern remaining unsettled through the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
An upper low will continue dipping down from Canada this
morning, eventually moving into the Atlantic by late this
afternoon. Upslope showers will continue to be possible through
much of the day as the low passes through, with a few snowflakes
possible over the higher elevations in the Whites and the
western Maine mountains. The pressure gradient will remain tight
today with CAA continuing. Thus, another blustery day is
expected with northerly winds gusting into the 25 to 35 mph
range for most. Today will likely be the coolest day of the
forecast period with highs only expected to range from the lower
40s north to the low/mid 50s across the south and coastal
areas. With the gusty winds in place, it will feel a few degrees
cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Most of the CAMs suggest at least some rain/snow shower
activity continuing this evening across some of the higher
terrain. As the upper low continues to move farther south, the
pressure gradient should start to relax a bit as high pressure
starts to approach. Thus, winds will likely start to diminish
after sunset. Lows are forecast to mainly range from the lower
30s to lower 40s but we could see some 20s across the mountains.
These temperatures will be plenty cold enough for some frost
but some uncertainty remains about how widespread the frost will
be across zones that are still active. Winds could be still be
a just a little too elevated for optimal frost conditions. Will
continue capping the frost potential at patchy for now, mainly
confined to New Hampshire and the western Maine mountains.

Friday should be dry and a little bit warmer with highs mainly
in the lower 50s to lower 60s. There will likely be some pockets
in the 40s across the mountains. Northerly winds may remain a
bit breezy during the day (especially along the coast) but much
lighter than the past couple of days.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
01Z NBM Update...No significant changes with the latest NBM for
the long term period. High pressure south of New England allows
for moderating temperatures and mostly dry conditions over the
week. A frontal system approaches Sunday night bringing chances
of rain through Monday. The pattern looks to remain unsettled
and potentially turning more active with an upper low lingering
over the area into mid week and another trough approaching for
the second half of next week.

Previously...

Pattern Overview: A ridge builds in behind a departing upper
low bringing a stretch of dry weather for the end of the work
week and through the weekend. The next feature of note, will be
vertically stacked low pressure moving through the area early
next week. Models suggest this low may cutoff and hang around,
keeping the pattern unsettled through the middle of next week.

Impacts and Key Messages:
* Temperatures trend above normal through the weekend
* While too early to resolve specific details, a notable
  disturbance looks to arrive early next week.

Details:

Saturday and Sunday: A ridge looks to be firmly in place over
the region through the weekend. This continues the mostly clear
skies and also the warming trend. Southwesterly flow at 850mb
warms the airmass to around +6-8C Saturday, peaking on Sunday at
around 10C. This should equate to surface temperatures in the
low to mid-60s south of the mountains, and in the upper 50s to
low 60s to the north on Saturday, with Sunday featuring
temperatures in the mid- to upper 60s south and in the low to
mid-60s north. This warmer airmass keeps low temperatures in the
mid- to upper 30s Saturday night, with low 40s hanging on at
the coastline. Clouds begin to build in Sunday evening as a
potent trough approaches the region. This likely results in low
temperatures only falling into the low to mid 40s areawide, with
some upper 40s in portions of the coastal plain.

Monday-Wednesday: Taking an early look at next weeks system,
there are a couple things to note. The spread in the location of
the low pressure center is large in the ensembles and this is
resulting in about a 24-hr difference in precipitation arrival
in the deterministics. The GFS breaks up the event racing a
front through on Monday, with the secondary coastal low
developing much later toward midweek. This would be an initially
drier solution, with the slug coming later and overall with
more QPF. The Euro has more support for the initial trough
cutting off and becoming a vertically stacked low over the
Delmarva Peninsula, as well as a secondary inside running low.
This would be the slower solution with precipitation holding off
until Tuesday. The two lows phase, but the Euro favors a weaker
system overall and is drier. However, the second thing to note
here is that we are not exactly talking about a soaker. Ensemble
probabilities for greater than an inch are quite low in the GFS
and Euro suite (30-50%), with LREF 25th-75th percentile
differences around 0.75-1". Long story short, we will have to
wait for better agreement to sort out the details, but with all
signs pointing toward some form of an upper low hanging over the
region, we are looking at a dreary start to next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the
short term. That being said, we could see a period of lower VFR
or MVFR ceilings at RKD and AUG this afternoon. HIE could also
see some ceilings right on the VFR/MVFR border today. Finally,
we will see another round of gusty northwest winds (25 to 30
knots) through this afternoon before they start to relax a bit
this evening.

Long Term...VFR looks to be the dominant condition through the
weekend as high pressure settles over the region. Ceilings
thicken and lower Sunday night as a frontal system approaches
the region. Rain is likely by Monday that will bring the
potential for restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gusty northerly winds will continue through
tonight. A period of marginal gale force wind gusts is
expected to begin this afternoon and last into tonight. Thus,
the Gale Warnings over coastal waters and the SCA across the
bays look to be in good shape.

Long Term...SCA conditions last through at least the day
Saturday. Wind gusts fall below 25kts Friday afternoon, but wave
heights continue to hover around 5ft. We may get a brief period
of sub-SCA conditions Sunday, but seas will quickly build back
to around 5ft during the day Monday. These wave heights along
with wind gusts 20- 25kts, look to stick around through the
middle of next week as low pressure passes over the waters.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 PM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ150-
     152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Hargrove
SHORT TERM...Hargrove
LONG TERM...Baron/Schroeter