570
FXHW60 PHFO 051937
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
937 AM HST Thu Nov 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy to locally windy trade winds will persist through
Thursday. Pockets of moisture embedded with the trade wind flow
will focus showers over windward and mauka areas with some showers
spilling over leeward areas. Trades winds will increase in
strength tonight into Saturday due to a tropical disturbance
passing well to the south of the area and a strong high building
in from the northwest. Enhanced trade wind showers are also
anticipated for windward areas tonight into the weekend as
tropical moisture surges in from the south.

&&

.UPDATE...

Isolated to scattered showers are impacting the islands this
morning. Monitoring winds on Maui and Kohala on Big Island for a
possible Wind Advisory. Gusts have been in the 40s in these areas
earlier this morning, but have since subsided some. Winds are
expected to increase tonight with the arrival of an area of
stronger northeast winds associated with an approaching trough. A
scatterometer pass is expected this afternoon which will be
helpful in assessing the latest trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 423 AM HST Thu Nov 5 2026

Latest surface analysis shows a ridge of high pressure north of
the state is driving breezy trades across the island chain today
and a pair of troughs southeast of the Big Island. The Wind
Advisory for the Kohala District of Big Island has been cancelled
as winds have eased below advisory levels.

Radar imagery show numerous light to moderate showers moving east
to west across the state. Rainfall totals for the past 12 hours
show most windward areas received between 0.3 to over 1.0 inch,
including some central areas of Oahu. Satellite imagery shows a
broad area of thinning low level clouds just upstream of the
state indicating shower coverage should trend down during the day
today.

Starting tonight, another area of enhanced low level clouds
associated with a trough southeast of Big Island will draw deep
tropical moisture and precipitable water values near 2.50 inches
from the south later this afternoon. This will increase the
chance of showers for windward Big Island before spreading to
Maui County tonight into Friday. Isolated chance of thunderstorms
capable of producing heavy downpours also cannot be ruled out for
Big Island tonight through Friday as this area of moisture erodes
the inversion heights, allowing for some terrain induced
convection to occur. These showers are expected to be brief and
move quickly within the breezy trade wind flow so not anticipating
issuing a Flood Watch at this time. ASCAT imagery overnight
showed a large fetch of strong northeast winds ahead of this
trough that will reach the eastern half of state tonight,
strengthening winds to advisory levels due to terrain enhancements
near peaks and points, as well as along and downslope of ridges.
Thus a Wind Advisory for select areas of Maui County and the Big
Island may need to be issued later this afternoon if this area
remains intact.

NHC continues to monitor the high likelihood of a developing
tropical cyclone withing the next day or so well southeast of the
state. This area will follow close behind the first trough,
Friday into Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds in from
the northwest, tightening the pressure gradient across the state.
This could translate to trade winds strengthening across the
state, maintaining or expanding advisory level winds for select
areas across the island chain.

After the system passes west of the state Saturday into Sunday, a
much drier airmass and lower inversion heights will filter in
from the east into next week. Winds will ease to more typical
breezy levels. The drier airmass and lower inversion heights will
also limit shower coverage to mainly windward and mauka areas.

&&

.AVIATION...

Breezy trades expected for next few days. Low cigs and SHRA will
continue over windward and mauka locations with some spillover
into leeward areas at times. MVFR conds in SHRA, otherwise VFR
prevails. An area of enhanced moisture will likely affect windward
portions of the Big Island and to a lesser extent, the rest of the
islands tonight into tomorrow morning, bringing more widespread
MVFR with pockets of IFR for windward areas.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of
all smaller islands except Lanai. Conds should improve by noon.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod turb lee of terrain and
should remain in effect for next few days.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 423 AM HST Thu Nov 5 2026
Fresh to strong trade winds with periods of near gales will
remain in place throughout the week as a broad area of high
pressure remains in place north of the state. Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) is in effect for all Hawaiian Waters and the SCA conditions
will likely persist across the state through the weekend due to a
combination of winds and seas. Additionally this weekend, a
tropical cyclone could pass far south of the state. According to
National Hurricane Center, there is a high chance of formation
during the next 48 hours. Latest satellite imagery is starting to
show better organization during the past 6 hours.

Surf along north and west-facing shores will quickly build this
morning as a new long-period north-northwest swell arrives.
Buoy readings at buoy 51001 has ranged from 7 to 9 ft and 16 to 19
seconds over the past several hours. Long-period energy is
starting to arrive at the Waimea buoy this morning and we should
see surf quickly rising throughout the morning hours across north
and west facing shores. High Surf Advisory is in effect for most
north and west facing shores of the smaller islands through
tonight. This swell is expected to peak during the day today then
fade over the next few days. Surf will likely be at borderline
High Surf Advisory thresholds on Friday as the north-northwest
swell declines. A wide fetch of gales seen on the ASCAT pass
overnight near 40N180W, should send reinforcing medium period
energy out of the north-northwest late Saturday into Sunday. Surf
could approach advisory thresholds during its peak early Sunday
morning. Another large northwest to north-northwest swell is
possible towards the middle of next week.

A compact fetch of gales passing east of New Zealand last week
Friday should produce some waves slightly above average around
Friday into Saturday along south facing shores. Surf along east-
facing shores will stay elevated and choppy through much of the
week due to the strong trades. Select northeast exposures should
see long-period energy from the large north-northwest swell today
into tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 423 AM HST Thu Nov 5 2026

Persistent rainfall will likely limit the widespread availability
of receptive fuels. Breezy and gusty winds will continue during
the next several days, generating moderate fire weather
conditions. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible for Big Island
tonight through Friday. The inversion near Big Island will range
from 8000 to 10000 ft through Friday.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Kauai North-Kauai
Southwest-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai
North-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-
Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai
Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

UPDATE...Borghoff
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Almanza
AVIATION...Tsamous
MARINE...Kino