Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
951 FXHW60 PHFO 251913 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 913 AM HST Sat Jul 25 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy trade winds will usher in windward clouds and showers through Monday. Hurricane Fausto is expected to weaken to a tropical storm as it approaches the islands and will potentially bring heavy rain, winds and surf to portions of the state Tuesday through Wednesday. Trades will fill in Thursday night in the wake of Fausto. && .DISCUSSION... Breezy trade winds will usher in windward clouds and showers through Monday. Incoming clouds and showers will focus over windward and mauka areas, mostly occurring during the nighttime and early morning hours. 12Z soundings show a stable environment across the islands with an inversion around 7000 to 8000 feet. The highlight next week will be the approach of now Hurricane Fausto. Fausto is expected to weaken over the next several days as it tracks west across higher shear and cooler waters, reaching the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday. Main impacts Tuesday and Wednesday include the possibility of strong winds, flooding rain and east shores surf, and will be dependent upon Fausto`s eventual path. Winds could also be mitigated on a more northerly swing of the track, but more impactful if it slides southward, so confidence remains low. For rainfall, mitigating effects will be Fausto`s relatively quick west movement limiting how long it will rain will last across each island, but our terrian can capture much of this moisture as it passes through. Meanwhile, swell generated by Fausto has the highest liklihood of occurance, which will gradually build Sunday night through Monday night. No time like the present to review your family hurricane preparedness plans, and ensure every household has at least a 14 day supply of food and water available if needed during this years active hurricane season. A drier and more stable breezy trade wind pattern will fill in across the state from Thursday onward as Fausto continues to journey westward away from the Hawaiian Islands. && .AVIATION... Breezy trade winds will prevail throughout the weekend, before trending down on Sunday night. Latest satellite imagery and surface observations this morning show that low clouds and showers are producing MVFR flight conditions along north through east sections of most islands. Therefore, AIRMET Sierra has been issued for mountain obscuration along windward sections of the islands. These showers and low clouds are expected to become less widespread by early afternoon. AIRMET Tango also remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely continue through at least Sunday. && .MARINE... Locally strong trades persist through Sunday in response to strong high pressure positioned north of Kauai. The Small Craft Advisory for the typically windy waters of the Big Island and Maui County remains in effect through Sunday afternoon. Trades then weaken and turn northeasterly late Sunday into Monday upon the approach of TC Fausto. NHC forecasts the storm to weaken to a tropical storm well before it passes near or just north of the islands Tuesday through Wednesday. Low confidence in the wind forecast given sensitivity to the exact track of the system. Existing SSW swell is gradually declining while a new SSW pulse is poised to arrive later today. Long period energy in the 17 to 19 second band has been observed on offshore NDBC buoy 51002 during the last few hours. This swell will build today into tonight in support of the High Surf Advisory (HSA) which was extended through tonight. Today`s observations will dictate whether an additional extension of the HSA through Sunday will be needed. Locally strong trades support rough E shore surf a notch above the seasonal average through tonight. The trade wind swell will drop slightly as long period swell from Hurricane Fausto arrives tonight and Sunday. The Fausto swell will likely produce advisory- level surf along east facing shores Sunday night or Monday. High Surf Warning conditions are then possible during the peak on Tuesday or Wednesday depending on the eventual track. Surf along N shores remains flat to tiny through the weekend. Some increase is expected as Fausto or its remnants pass over the region Tuesday and Wednesday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kauai South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Foster AVIATION...Vaughan MARINE...JVC