507
FXHW60 PHFO 110129
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
329 PM HST Thu Sep 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Drier easterly flow will filter in today into Friday, bringing a
return of a typical trade wind pattern through early next week.
Another influx of tropical moisture is possible towards the
middle of next week as a disturbance potentially moves into the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Afternoon satellite water vapor imagery shows the last of the
tropical moisture lingering from Lowell has moved off to the
southwest. Light showers continue along the windward side of the
Big Island, with otherwise partly to mostly cloudy condittions
across the state.

The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged into early next
week with a broad upper level low well to the northeast. Drier
air will filter in on the back side of this low into Friday,
allowing for dew points to lower back into the mid 60s in the
lower elevations by Friday. Trade winds will slowly build in today
and prevail into early next week. More typical afternoon and
evening showers can be expected on the windward sides of the
islands. Towards the middle of next week, the upper level low
weakens and lifts northeast and high pressure begins to expand
westward across the state. A weak disturbance could bring an
increase in moisture by Thursday, though there`s considerable
spread in ensemble precipitable water due to differences in the
track of the disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION...

Trade winds are growing gusty in places, and this combined with
lingering moisture has allowed for ongoing showers this afternoon
into this evening. Satellite shows a mix of clear skies to mostly
cloudy skies, resulting in ceilings generally ranging from VFR to
MVFR. The lower ceilings, and at times reduced visibility are
possible at times due to the showers and clouds, however,
expecting conditions to gradually improve with a drying trend into
the evening and overnight.

AIRMET Sierra remains for the Big Island, Maui, Oahu and Kauai
through at least 04Z. Light spotty afternoon to evening showers
continue to be possible into this evening. However, drying trade
winds will likely end the showers and reduce clouds significantly
for tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will gradually return from
east to west across the island chain today as a weak trough
orinentatied north to south shifts west of Kauai tonight. Trades
will continue to be disrupted as a couple of troughs far northeast
and southeast continues to develop and shift westward. The trough
from the southeast will near the state Saturdary allowing winds to
shift out of the northeast through early next week.

A moderate mid-period south swell will continue to steadily
decline over the next few days with below average surf expected by
the weekend. Background southwest swell will keep surf from going
flat over the weekend into early next week. A Gale low developing
just east Australia will shift east of New Zealand over the next
couple of days. Forerunners from the catpured fetch from this
system could start trickling in by mid week and gradually build
through the rest of the week into next weekend generating above
average surf.


Surf along east facing shores will gradually decrease and will
remain near seasonal averages through Saturday due to east and
northeast swells generated by former tropical cyclones. Surf
along north facing shores continues to receive a small bump due to
Lowell. This short-period northwest swell will quickly fade,
allowing surf to become tiny along north facing shores today as
Lowell weakens and tracks westward away from the islands.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather risk will remain low the next several days due light
winds and lingering moisture. Expect a slight chance of
thunderstorms over the Big Island this afternoon. Temperature
inversion heights are expected to remain elevated or weak.



&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SS
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...Walsh
FIRE WEATHER...SS