659
FXHW60 PHFO 041430 CCA
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
430 AM HST Thu Sep 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Partly cloudy, warm and breezy trades the next few days as the
state remains under a stable weather pattern. Limited showers will
be primarily confined to windward upslope mauka and within higher
terrain. Precipitation will potentially increase over the eastern
end of the state this weekend in advance of Tropical Cyclone
Kiko. Kiko is forecast to reach our far eastern offshore waters
early next week. While a large amount of uncertainly exists,
there exists the threat for high rainfall that could lead to
flooding in association with Kiko.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The islands remain under the stable influence of an upper ridge
axis extending from mid to upper ridging centered about 1,200
miles northeast of Big Island. Water vapor satellite imagery is
depicting the bulk of the drier air in association with the ridge
moving around its western periphery. This is supporting the
recently warm and dry weather over the eastern half of the state.
Cyclonic steering flow in relation to a deepening trough of low
pressure northwest of Kauai is impinging on the ridge and neither
feature is giving up much ground in this quasi-static synoptic
pattern. Overall, the eastern ridge will win out and any higher
southwesterly moisture being pulled up along the trough will stay
north and west of the state the next few days. Thus, stability
will rule and this wash-rinse-repeat weather behavior will be
around into the weekend. A benign surface high northeast of the
state has maintained a unseasonably weak downstream pressure
gradient. This has ultimately resulted in light to moderate
trades. Warm days will persist with many communities peaking in
the middle to upper 80s by 2 PM under ample sunshine within
resident dry air. High stability and a lack of upstream moisture
will result in any measurable rain focusing along windward
exposures and upslope mauka through Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Kiko is now moving west at around 10 mph and is
forecast to move into our eastern offshore waters, or pass 150W,
late next Monday. The track of Kiko will be determined by the
drier Central Pacific environment it will be moving into the next
couple of days as well as its interaction with increasing
southwesterly shear brought on by the aforementioned northwest
trough. As of this time, due to the high uncertainly of Kiko`s
intensity and track, the messaging for the state is focused on the
potential for greater rainfall leading to a flood threat during
the Monday through early Thursday time frame. Please refer to the
National Hurricane Center concerning the official forecasts of TC
Kiko`s track and intensity.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate trades are expected the next few days. Brief periods of
low clouds and showers will be possible over windward slopes
during the overnight hours. Generally, VFR conditions will prevail
but with occasional MVFR during periods of moderate showers. A
trough draped across American Samoa will keep vicinity showers in
place over NSTU through the period with a chance of afternoon
vicinity thunderstorms and/or towering cumulus. No AIRMETS are in
effect.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface ridge to the north will remain nearly stationary
through the weekend. This will maintain gentle to locally fresh
trade winds with some localized sea breezes, especially across
leeward waters. Hurricane Kiko, approximately 1,500 nm southeast
of Honolulu, continues to track westward in the Eastern Pacific,
and is forecasted to move into the eastern offshore and coastal
waters early next week.

Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny to small over the
next few days as reinforcing small short to medium period north-
northwest swells are expected. In the extended forecast, the
northwest Pacific looks to get active as low pressure systems
traverse the basin over the weekend sending the potential for a
few small to moderate northwest swells during the middle of next
week. Surf along south facing shores will see background medium-
to long-period energy through the week before a small to moderate
long-period south-southwest swell fills in and peaks over the
weekend. Below average surf is expected to continue along east
facing shores through the rest of the week. In the extended
forecast, easterly energy from Tropical Cyclone Kiko is expected
early next week. This will bring the potential for surf to reach
High Surf Advisory criteria.

Peak monthly high tides, combined with water levels running
higher than predicted, may lead to minor flooding along the
shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas. A Coastal Flood
Statement remains in effect through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon humidities will briefly fall into the upper 30s to
middle 40s under these dry, warm conditions. Winds will remain
below critical fire weather thresholds as light to moderate trade
winds are forecast through the weekend. Limited rainfall will occur
the next couple of days. Trade wind showers may likely increase
in coverage over windward areas of Big Island and Maui early next
week as TC Kiko approaches the state from the east.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Blood
AVIATION...Blood
MARINE...Shigesato
FIRE WEATHER...Blood