267
FXHW60 PHFO 030605
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
805 PM HST Fri Oct 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Tropical Storm Nolo strengthen once again to a hurricane this
afternoon away from the islands. Drier air mass will encompass the
region tonight into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...

No major changes as previous forecast is on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM HST Fri Oct 2 2026

Showers developed this afternoon across the windward site of the
islands. Rest of the state remained dry. Trailing moisture induced
by Hurricane Nolo`s circulation which affected the state for most
of this week, finally has moved away from the region. A drier air
mass has established through the area while winds also have
shifted from a southerly to a more easterly component. Although
relatively dry conditions will prevail across the state during the
weekend, showers are expected to develop each afternoon on the
windward side of the islands.

Early next week, the trades will weaken in response to an
approaching surface trough from the northeast and then will weaken
further heading into midweek as broad troughing develops
northwest of the state. In this lighter flow, land and sea breezes
will become increasingly more prevalent with clearing expected
overnight and clouds and a few showers developing over leeward and
interior areas with daytime heating each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...

The high pressure ridge will build back over the Hawaii region
with drier easterly trade wind weather returning just in time for
the weekend. Lower humidity levels and mostly sunny skies will
prevail through Sunday.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration above
2000 feet over Kauai, Oahu, and above 2500 feet over portions of
the Big Island. Conditions will improve for all islands as drier
weather returns by Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 PM HST Fri Oct 2 2026

As Hurricane Nolo continues to strengthen and moves farther west
away from the Hawaiian Islands, its influence on local weather
will wane. Gentle to fresh east to northeast trade winds will fill
back in on Saturday, along with drier air settling over the area.
A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the typically windy
waters and channels by late this weekend for locally strong
trades. By the middle of next week, troughing developing northwest
of the islands may cause the trade winds to weaken and veer out
of the southeast once again.

A moderate, medium-period west to southwest swell originating
from Nolo that has been affecting Niihau and Kauai will quickly
fade tonight. Meanwhile, a small background south swell continues
for other islands, holding surf mostly steady along south facing
shores through the weekend. A new small, long-period south swell,
originating from a large fetch of gale force winds southeast of
New Zealand earlier this week, is forecast to arrive beginning
Sunday and peak Monday through Wednesday.

Surf along north-facing shores saw a small bump today as a small,
short to medium period swell moved into the region. This will peak
late today, then decline into the weekend. Another increase in small
north shore surf is possible early next week as a small, medium-
period northwest swell arrives this weekend and peaks on Monday.
This will be followed by a slightly larger long-period northwest
swell peaking on Wednesday. Surf along east facing shores will see
a slight boost and become more choppy as easterly trades build
back into the region this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 PM HST Fri Oct 2 2026

Drier air is expected over the weekend as moderate to locally
breezy east-northeasterly trades return, which may increase the
fire weather concern slightly to moderate levels. However, winds
are expected to decrease early to midweek next week, lowering the
fire weather concerns once again.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Walsh
DISCUSSION...Castro
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Vaughan
FIRE WEATHER...Castro