Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
678 FXHW60 PHFO 260132 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 332 PM HST Tue Aug 25 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the forecast period as showers focus primarily windward and mauka. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure far north of the area will drive moderate to breezy trade winds through this weekend and into next week. A mid level ridge will keep a strong temperature inversion of around 5,000 ft to 6,000 ft in place, keeping showers on the lighter side. An area of drier air with lower dewpoints can also be seen on CIMSS MIMIC Layer Precipitable water just upstream to the east-northeast of the islands. This drier air will help lower the relative humidity values through the remainder of the week and lower the shower chances. Showers will still be possible for windward and mountain areas, although coverage should be fairly limited and intensity will be light. An enhanced but shallow moisture field associated with benign troughing from a long-since dissipated tropical system will be on the doorstep in about a week and may bring an uptick in showers for windward and mauka zones. Looking into the long range forecast, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently tracking a few disturbances in the eastern and central Pacific that could develop in the next several days to a week. Global models and google deepmind indicate an active week next week for Tropical Cyclone Development. It is too early to know if Hawaii will be impacted but we will be monitoring the tropics for notable developments. && .AVIATION... Mostly VFR conditions across the state with pockets of MVFR conditions windward due to lower CIGs. Additionally, a few -SHRA are also possible on windward and mauka slopes. Wind wise, flow pattern is moderate trade regime. AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod low-level turb lee of terrain and may be needed for a few days. && .MARINE... Moderate to locally strong trades will persists a broad high pressure remains far north of the state. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect over typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island. Surf along south facing shores will remain below summer average through tonight as a small medium period south swell slowly fades and a small, long period south southwest swell fills in. A slightly larger, long period south swell will fill in Wednesday and peak Thursday into Friday. This swell could push surf towards advisory thresholds before slowly fading over the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy due to persistent trade wind swell. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny to flat. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather will be elevated but is expected to remain below critical thresholds through the week due to winds remaining below criteria. KBDI likewise remains a bit low due to recent rainfall. Day to day variability during the next week will be modest as the governing pattern remains rather stagnant. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tsamous AVIATION...MM MARINE...Almanza FIRE WEATHER...Tsamous