188
FXHW60 PHFO 180635
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
835 PM HST Mon Aug 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Light showers are possible through this evening. Trade wind
pattern returns Tuesday with windward and mauka showers much of
this week. Precipitation chances increase Friday and Saturday for
windward areas. Winds may veer southeasterly late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...

A more seasonal trade wind shower pattern returns tonight. Expect
relatively drier conditions for the first half of the week, with
lighter winds and increased trade wind precipitation during the
latter half.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM HST Mon Aug 17 2026

Scattered, light showers will diminish this evening. Over the past
12 hours an additional 0.20 to 0.60 inches of rain has fallen across
the state, with some locally higher accumulations. For the middle of
the week, the atmosphere will gradually dry out in the wake of
Tropical Storm Lala. Moderate strength winds will prevail for the
first half of the week, becoming light by Thursday. The return of
the trade winds will maintain scattered showers over windward and
mauka locations, with isolated spill over into leeward areas.

For late Thursday through the weekend the trades will veer east-
southeast, pulling additional moisture into the area. This will
increase precipitable water values for Friday and Saturday. Due to
the expected moisture increase, precipitation chances have been
increased for Friday into Saturday, especially for windward areas. A
subtle drying is expected on Sunday.

For early next week, there is quiet a bit of difference between
the GFS and the ECMWF. The GFS supports a wetter pattern with the
ECMWF on the drier side. Current forecast maintains drier
conditions, which may need adjusting in the coming days depending
on how the pattern develops.

&&

.AVIATION...

Moderate trades through the forecast period. Low cigs and SHRA
along windward and mauka locations. MVFR conds possible in SHRA
otherwise VFR prevails.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc along windward portions
of all islands. Conds should improve in the mid morning hours.


&&

.MARINE...

With Tropical Storm Lala now well west of the islands, fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds have filled in across the
entire coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in
effect for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and
the Big Island through tonight, but trade winds will gradually
ease dropping into the moderate to locally fresh range by
Tuesday. During the second half of the week, trades will weaken
further to become light and variable for most waters before
strengthening again this weekend.

Surf along south facing shores remains elevated from a moderate,
medium to long period swell that has peaked and plateaued this
evening. Observations at PacIOOS buoy Barber`s Point shows the
south swell maintaining at roughly 4 feet, 14 seconds through
tonight. However, it is still expected to slowly decline through
midweek, so the overall trend remains unchanged. Some wrap also
continues this evening for west facing shores, but this is also
expected to follow suit as the south swell declines. Another long
period south swell generated from gales just south and east of New
Zealand will begin arriving late this week.

Surf along east facing shores will continue to fade tonight as
Lala moves further west away from the state and as trades decrease
on Tuesday. North facing shores will remain tiny throughout the
week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 PM HST Mon Aug 17 2026
Moderate relatively moist trade winds will prevail through mid-
week. Winds will weaken Thursday and Friday with increasing
humidity. Trade winds increase over the weekend with minor changes
in humidity. No fire weather concerns through the forecast
period. There is no temperature inversion.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...CO
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Shigesato
SHORT TERM UPDATE...Quesada