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FXHW60 PHFO 252112 AAA
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1112 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Nolo continues to slowly move to the north towards the
Big Island, and is expected to make a turn to the west tonight.
Moisture on the north side of Nolo will interact with the terrain
of the Big Island and Maui, and could lead to significant flash
flooding, particularly on the windward and southeast portions of
the Big Island. Localized strong and gust winds are possible
statewide, with the highest winds expected on the Big Island due
to the proximity to Nolo.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...

Hurricane Nolo continues moving slowly towards the north-northeast
about 5 mph. It was located around 175 miles south of South Point
late this morning. Rainbands associated with Nolo`s circulation
are slowly moving north and should start affecting the Big Island
later tonight. Rain intensity will remain sensitive to just how
far north Nolo progresses before making its westward turn which is
the sticking point in the forecast in terms of uncertainty.

For this afternoon and into the evening hours, winds will
continue to gradually increase statewide. A wind advisory has been
issued for Niihau, Kauai and Oahu and will be in effect from
Saturday morning through Sunday evening. Weather will begin to
deteriorate at a faster pace as hurricane Nolo approaches from the
south tonight. Intermittent periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
will spread first across Big Island later today and Saturday over
Maui.

The next update from NHC is scheduled for 5pm HST.

Otherwise in the short term, chances for rainfall were increase
for the western islands for the daylight hours based on latest
radar and  satellite data.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 522 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2026
The main change this morning to the forecast was to lower the
additional rainfall that could fall over Maui County and the Big
Island, and to modify the winds in keeping with the latest
forecast track and intensity of Hurricane Nolo.

Hurricane Nola continues to moving slowly northward towards the
Big Island early this morning. An upper level trough west of the
islands is helping to steer Nolo. As the trough moves to the west
tonight and Saturday, Nolo should begin to make its turn westward.
Then a building ridge north of the state will help Nolo to
continue to move to the west. The current forecast track is
similar to yesterday evenings forecast, however with a delay in
the onset of rain on the Big Island and Maui, and in keeping with
other model guidance, have lowered the additional rainfall that is
expected for those areas. While we have lowered some of the
threat, the possibility of flooding continues. And with many areas
of the southeast portion of the Big Island susceptible due the
recent rains, any additional rainfall could cause significant
issues. As such, the Flood Watch continues for Maui and the Big
Island. Additionally, some modifications to the winds, primarily
to lower them over the next couple of days, have been made, also
keeping with the latest model guidance.

With regards to the winds over Kauai County and Oahu, have opted
to hold off on any wind headlines this morning. The west turn
timing plays a big factor in many parts of the forecast, including
the timing of winds for Kauai County and Oahu. Oahu remains at a
slightly higher chance for meeting High Wind Warning criteria, but
still a good shot for Kauai reaching advisory levels.

Satellite derived precipitable water (PW) shows the deeper
moisture has moved over the Big Island, but radar shows that the
shower activity remains to the south. Still expecting shower
activity to increase over the Big Island today as Nolo moves
north, pushing that moisture area into the Big Island. The
additional rainfall totals were trended down with the morning
package, however the possibility of localized significant totals
remains. Strengthening northeast winds are expected to drive
moderate to heavy showers over windward portions of the Big Island
and Maui as moisture deepens and spreads northward over the
region.

A High Wind Watch for Oahu Saturday and Saturday night
remains a possibility. The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm
Warning remain in effect for the Big Island and the Tropical Storm
Watch continues for Maui County.

By the middle of next week, troughing will draw Nolo sharply north
or northeastward west of Kauai. The end of next week will then feature
light south to southeast flow as Nolo lifts north of the area and
gradient over the state weakens substantially.

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty trade winds continue across most of the islands today with
gusts peaking between 25 to 35 knots while gusts up to 40 knots
are possible at the windiest sites. Winds are expected to remain
gusty through the end of the TAF period. Confidence has decreased
slightly in showers reaching the more northern islands given
Nolo`s more southerly track. That being said, trade showers are
likely to continue across windward and mauka areas of the western
islands today while heavier rain remains concentrated from Molokai
down through the Big Island. The highest potential for moderate
to heavy rain remains across the Big Island with reductions in
ceilings and visibilities likely as shower activity becomes more
frequent. This may result in periods of IFR to LIFR conditions in
heavier showers on the Big Island today into tomorrow. Thunderstorm
chances remain low for the Big Island. Temporary MVFR conditions
are possible across the rest of the islands as showers develop.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for windward
areas of all islands today.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of
island terrain due to breezy trade winds. Expect this to continue
through the forecast period. It is possible that an AIRMET for
sustained 30 kt winds will be needed for the Big Island by
Saturday as Nolo passes to the south.

TC SIGMET Oscar series covers Hurricane Nolo, and interests should
continue to monitor for updates to this SIGMET.


&&

.MARINE...

Hurricane Warnings around the Big Island and Tropical Storm
Warnings around Maui County remain in effect as Hurricane Nolo
inches northward. It is still forecast to turn west well before
reaching the Big Island or adjacent nearshore waters, but strong
winds and high seas can nonetheless be expected. South to
southeast fresh swell emanating from Nolo will spread west across
the southern nearshore waters as the system tracks west through
early next week. The High Surf Advisory (HSA) for E and SE facing
shores of the Big Island, Maui, and Molokai remains in effect and
has been extended through Sunday. In addition, an HSA is now in
effect for Kauai, Oahu, and Niihau beginning tonight due to
strengthening trades. A small, long period NW swell fills in this
weekend in maintenance of elevated surf along exposed shorelines
into early next week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 522 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2026
Issued at 458 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2026

Winds will steadily as Hurricane Nolo moves closer. Very strong
winds are possible on the Big Island, though heavy rainfall will
likely mitigate fire danger over most areas. From Kauai to Maui
County, rainfall over the last month has led to some improvement
in fuels, but the gusty trade winds will produce moderate fire
weather conditions over drier leeward areas through the weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM HST Sunday for Central
Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kauai East-Kauai
Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Koolau Leeward-
Koolau Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Waianae Coast-
Waianae Mountains.

High Surf Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Sunday for
Kauai East-Kauai South-Koolau Windward-Olomana.

Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for Big Island East-Big
Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island
Southeast-Big Island Summits-Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu-
Kohala-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-
Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward
West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-
Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-
South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.

Tropical Storm Watch for Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu-
Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui
Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-
Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai
Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-South
Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island East-Big
Island North-Big Island Southeast-Kipahulu-Maui Windward West-
Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-Windward
Haleakala.

Hurricane Watch for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big
Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island
Summits-Kohala-Kona.

Tropical Storm Warning for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-
Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big
Island Summits-Kohala-Kona.

Tropical Storm Watch for Kaiwi Channel-Maalaea Bay-Maui County
Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

Hurricane Watch for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-
Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.

Tropical Storm Warning for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward
Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Channel-
Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...F Castro
DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...Vaughan
MARINE...JVC