607
FXHW60 PHFO 301303
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
303 AM HST Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Light to moderate trades will continue through next week, with
localized land and sea breezes at times. Mostly dry and stable
conditions will prevail, with the exception of a brief uptick in
shower activity Sunday into Monday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure far northeast of Hawaii remains weak and displaced
by a large area of low pressure. This setup will maintain light
to moderate trades, with sea and land breezes developing across
the state. Mid-level ridging and dry air filtering across the
region will limit shower activity, supporting a dry and stable
pattern. Brief showers will mainly be confined to windward and
mauka areas overnight into the morning hours, though sea breezes
may bring isolated light showers to some leeward and interior
areas each afternoon throughout the period.

Come Sunday into Monday a weak surface low tracks south of the
Big Island. Moisture associated with this low may clip the
eastern half of the island chain. At the same time, an upper
level low looks to stall northwest of Kauai. This combination of
deeper tropical moisture and added instability, could allow for
the slight enhancement of shower activity statewide, particularly
from Sunday afternoon through Monday.

A stable, drier land and sea breeze pattern returns with light to
moderate trades expected from Tuesday onward.


&&

.AVIATION...

Light to moderate trades through the weekend. Some sea/land
breezes are possible. Low cigs and SHRA expected across windward
and mauka locations. While MVFR conds are possible in any SHRA,
VFR should prevail.

No AIRMETs are in effect.


&&

.MARINE...

A ridge of high pressure north of the state will gradually shift
further south during the next day or so in response to a
developing low far north of the state. As the ridge meanders
closer to the islands our trade wind speeds will decrease with
gentle to moderate trade winds expected through early next week.
Winds should be light enough for localized sea breezes, especially
across leeward waters.

Surf along south facing shores will remain near summer average
today as reinforcing energy from the south in the 14-18 second
energy bands have filled in overnight. Surf is expected to
steadily decline Sunday into Monday. Surf heights will return to
background levels by early next week along south facing shores.

Surf along north facing shores will see a small, short period
swell expected to arrive late this weekend. This swell will be
overshadowed by longer period energy out of the northwest starting
Monday night of next week. This swell should peak on Tuesday and
could produce surf heights near the September average of 4 to 6
feet. Daytime ASCAT showed gale-force winds with the developing
low far north of the state. This should send another reinforcing
pulse out of the north around the same time the northwest swell
arrives. A mix of north and northwest swells are expected next
Tuesday through Thursday.

Below average surf is expected to continue along east facing
shores due to gentle to moderate trade winds persisting through
early next week.

Peak monthly high tides combined with water levels that are
running higher than predicted may lead to minor flooding along the
shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas toward the end of next
week. Coastal flooding may be possible around the daily peak
tide, which will be during the afternoon hours.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather RH values may be approached each afternoon
though next week across some leeward locations. Lighter trade
winds are expected to be the limiting factor, helping to keep the
state below critical fire weather thresholds. While a slight
uptick in showers is possible Sunday into Monday, expect drier
more stable conditions to prevail Tuesday onward. Inversion heights
will typically range between 6,500 to 8,000 feet.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Walsh
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Shigesato
FIRE WEATHER...Walsh