592
FXHW60 PHFO 150132
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
332 PM HST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Locally breezy trades continue into the weekend during which time
drier weather is anticipated. There is a chance for a brief period
of wetter weather during the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A drier pattern has already established over the western end of the
island chain where partly cloudy skies and limited shower activity
prevail. Visible imagery suggests a narrow ribbon of even drier air
lurking immediately upstream as evidenced by nearly cloud free skies
east of the islands. As this drier airmass advances into the area,
it will cause steady showers over Windward Big Island & Maui to
gradually diminish as the night progresses. The smaller islands will
likewise remain mostly dry through the night. Locally breezy trades
and a fairly typical trade wind pattern then prevail through at
least Monday.

Global guidance in good agreement this afternoon that a rather warm
closed low will develop in situ over the islands during the early
portion of next week. Attendant adjustment to the low-level wind
field will cause emerging SE winds in the mid-levels to advect deep
tropical moisture over the area with PWATs modeled to be in excess
of 1.5" as early as Monday while ESE trades prevail at the surface.
PWATs eventually modeled to reach or exceed 2" areawide by late
Tuesday or Wednesday. Forecast soundings and model cross sections
indicate rather dry and stable low-levels inititally which suggests
potential for some higher based light/stratiform rain operating
independently of trade wind showers below during the initial
moisture surge. However, as moisture deepens during mid-week, the
potential will exist for any moisture embedded in the trades to
capitalize on existing convective instability and also tap into
ample mid/upper level moisture suggesting a brief window for
moderate to heavy, but still progressive, trade wind showers. The
best opportunity for such shower activity likely comes as the
aforementioned closed low deamplifies and lifts NE out of the area
bringing with it a brief hit of dynamic forcing Tues into Wed. Worth
noting that the GFS has demonstrated a tendency to spin up a
spurious low out of grid scale convection SE of the Big Island.
Subsequent output of heavy indicating associated heavy rain and
strong wind field are likely unreliable for now. Potential for
flooding in this scenario appears limited at this time but bears
monitoring in subsequent forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION...

Breezy trade winds will begin to gradually ease tonight and into
tomorrow. Showers are continuing to impact windward and
mountainous areas, especially over the Big Island. MVFR
conditions prevail over windward sections of the Big Island, with
brief isolated IFR conditions possible through tonight.
Occasional MVFR conditions are possible over windward and
mountainous areas elsewhere across the state. Otherwise, VFR will
prevail.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for windward Big Island. This
will likely continue through tonight due to upstream clouds and
showers.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence
over and downwind of island terrain below 10,000 feet. This is
expected to remain at least through the evening, and will likely
be adjusted tomorrow due to winds gradually easing across the
state.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong high pressure to the NE will weaken and move SE over the
weekend. Moderate to strong easterly trade winds will decrease to
locally strong this weekend as the high weakens. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) is in effect through this afternoon for both gusty
winds and high seas. Western marine zones will fall off tonight
with zones from the Kaiwi Channel eastward remaining in the SCA
overnight Saturday morning. A SCA will be in effect for the
traditionally windy waters surrounding Maui County and Big Island
until 6 AM Sunday morning.

The forecast becomes uncertain next week as some guidance
indicates a mid level trough moving over the islands from the
southeast. This mid level trough, if actually occurs as depicted,
could create a surface trough by Monday night, disrupt the trade
winds, and allow for thunderstorms to develop across the local
waters. Other model guidance suggests a weaker mid level trough
with trade winds continuing through the first half of next week.
Additionally, a cold front could approach the NW offshore waters
by Tuesday evening.

Large short period northeast swell generated by a strong trade
fetch will be on the gradual decline through the weekend as a
result of weakening local and upstream trades. Large surf for east
shores is possible by the middle of next week depending on the
evolution of a potential surface trough and approaching cold
front.

A small, medium period northwest swell will fill in late Saturday
afternoon and provide a small boost to north and west-facing
shores through the weekend. Small medium to long period west-
northwest swells will then keep surf from going flat early next
week. A moderate long period west northwest swell is possible
next week and could bring advisory level surf to north and west
shores by the middle of next week.

For south shores, small background southerly swell will remain
through the weekend and into early next week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The inversion slopes from around 7kft at Lihue to 10kft at Hilo
per this afternoon`s upper air observations. The inversion will
fall to around 5 or 6kft by Saturday as drier air infiltrates the
area and the resident band of showers over Windward Big Island
sags south and diminishes. Seasonably cool temperatures will
maintain elevated RH values even as dewpoints tumble a bit heading
into Saturday. The potential exists for a brief period of wetter
weather during the middle of next week.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kaiwi Channel-
Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Big
Island Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...Tsamous
FIRE WEATHER...JVC