344
FXHW60 PHFO 290645
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
845 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will veer from the
southeasterly direction by Tuesday with a gradual weakening
trend. Clouds and showers will increase Tuesday through Thursday
as Nolo passes to the west pulling up deep tropical moisture along
the east side of the storm increasing showers over Niihau, Kauai
and Oahu. Nolo moves away to the northwest by this weekend with
drier easterly trade winds building back in across the Hawaii
Region.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
The latest satellite imagery shows Hurricane Nolo remains on a
northwestward track passing several hundred miles southwest of
Kauai. Deeper tropical moisture will be drawn northward into the
western islands over the next few days as Nolo passes west of
Kauai. This unstable moisture and southeasterly wind flow will
likely increase shower activity, possibly heavy showers at times,
over the western islands of Niihau and Kauai on Tuesday, and over
Oahu from Tuesday night into Wednesday. The typically drier south
and southeast facing mountain slopes will see elevated rainfall
amounts in this changing weather pattern. Deeper hot and humid
humidity levels and enhanced shower activity will likely linger
through Thursday, before decreasing on Friday just in time for
drier trends by the weekend.

The current forecast grids look good. No evening updates.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026
Breezy east southeast winds with a drier airmass will limit clouds
and showers tonight. Major Hurricane Nolo (cat. 4) is around 415
miles west southwest of Honolulu this afternoon and has made it`s
turn to the northwest. Main impacts in the short-term will be the
breezy, but weakening winds across the state due to the pressure
difference between Nolo and the subtropical high far to the
northeast, and the southwest swell directed towards Kauai. Nolo
will weaken down to a cat. 1 hurricane and stall around 250 to 300
miles west of Kauai on Tuesday night and Wednesday, then continue
on a more west northwesterly track away from the state through
the second half of the week.

Winds will remain brisk and gradually veer southeasterly as Nolo
gains latitude. Rain bands along Nolo`s eastern flank will bring
an increase in rainfall across Kauai beginning Tuesday and Oahu
by Tuesday night, as the southeasterly flow directs showers over
populated areas of both islands. Guidance shows varying amounts
and lengths of time that the bands will impact the western end of
the state, and will ultimately depend on Nolo`s eventual path over
the next few days. QPF has been adjusted for the Tuesday to
Thursday period with 3 to 6 inches of additional rain on Kauai and
Niihau, and up to 4 inches on Oahu. Not considering a Flood Watch
at this time with the anticipation these rainfall amounts will be
spread out over several days and showers should be moving along
quickly.

East southeasterly winds will continue, but gradually weaken,
through the second half of the week as Nolo tracks away. By this
weekend, trade winds are forecast to build in bringing drier and
more stable conditions again.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will veer from the
southeasterly direction by Tuesday with a gradual weakening
trend. Isolated showers are possible across windward and mountain
areas tonight into Tuesday with brief MVFR conditions. Moisture
will increase across Kauai and Oahu Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday bringing an increased likelihood of showers. Showers are
most likely across Kauai starting late Tuesday morning with
shower chances gradually increasing for Oahu late Tuesday into
Wednesday.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below
9,000 feet over and immediately downwind of island terrain. This
AIRMET will likely be needed at least through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong east trades become moderate to breezy out of the southeast
tonight in response to Hurricane Nolo advancing northwestward.
The exception will be around Kauai where proximity to Nolo will
allow for the gradient to remain strong. Near gales will be
possible immediately west of Kauai tonight through Wednesday,
particularly in the channel between Kauai and Niihau. Here, the
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended through Wednesday for
both winds and seas. Elsewhere, the SCA remains in place and is
still scheduled to expire Tuesday morning. Winds remain
southeasterly through Friday as Nolo creeps slowly westward away
from the islands. Once it begins to accelerate away over the
weekend, east to northeasterly trades return.

Tiny long period energy out of the south is noted on the Barber`s
Point PacIOOS Buoy this afternoon. This energy represents the
initial forerunners of a rather small (about 1 foot), long-period
swell that will maintain elevated surf for south shores through
mid-week. This is separate from the more substantial short to
medium period fresh swell emanating from Nolo. Uncertainty related
to the size of Nolo`s swell coupled with its slow forward motion
Tuesday night through Wednesday will be a theme in the forecast
for the next couple of days. For Kauai/Niihau in particular, high
surf may linger into midweek conditional on the exact size of
Nolo`s swell. Likewise, as Nolo lifts north, its westerly swell
influence will increase, potentially supporting an HSA for Big
Island-West during the middle of this week.

Surf along east shores slowly declines as trades veer southeast
and diminish, then return as light to moderate easterlies this
weekend. A small, long-period south swell originating east of New
Zealand is poised to arrive early next week in maintenance of
elevated surf along south-facing shores.

For north-facing shores, the existing small, medium-period swell
fades through Wednesday. Multiple rounds of tiny swell originating
out of the northwest quadrant will reach north and select west
facing exposures next week as the storm track in the vicinity of
the Aleutian Islands becomes increasingly active.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026
Dry and stable with breezy east southeast winds expected through
through tonight, with a gradual increase in humidity through
midweek. Moisture drawn northward along the eastern sides of Nolo
will increase rain chances across the western part of the state.
Fire conditions will improve statewide over the next couple days
as winds weaken and humidity levels rise.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Kauai South-Kauai
Southwest-Niihau.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kauai Leeward
Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai
Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...Bohlin
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...Pechacek
MARINE...Quesada
FIRE WEATHER...Foster