002
FXHW60 PHFO 160311
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
511 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Hurricane Lala has moved past the southern tip of the Big Island
late this afternoon and will continue moving west-northwest (to
the south of the other islands) through Sunday evening. High
winds, potentially flooding rains, and high surf impacts will be
felt statewide. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Big Island
and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the rest of the
state. Wet trade wind weather will begin Monday and extend through
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The main forecast concern through late Sunday will be impacts
from Tropical Storm Lala. As of 5 PM HST, Hurricane Lala was
located about 30 miles southwest of South Point moving northwest
around 9 mph. The center of the eye did not cross over land, so
there is no official "landfall" for this hurricane.

The center of rotation can be seen by radar as it drifts off the
southwest coast of the Big Island. Based on the latest forecast
from the National Hurricane Center, Lala is expected to move
west-northwest, with the center of circulation remaining south of
the smaller islands. Remember impacts can occur well outside the
center of the storm. Please stay up to date on the latest
forecasts, and prepare for the impacts described below.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...Damaging tropical storm force winds (39
mph to 73 mph) continue across the Big Island and Maui County,
Oahu, and should begin in Kauai tonight. A Hurricane Warning
remains in effect for the Big Island and surrounding waters. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the rest of the state and
surrounding waters. Localized areas damaging winds have been
observed over and downwind of the mountainous terrain, even well
away from the tropical cyclone center. These localized strong
winds and gusts will also be felt in advance of the arrival of
Lala and should be kept in mind as last minute preparations are
being made. Winds over 100 mph have been observed on the summits
of the Big Island and Maui, and travel is strongly discouraged.

HEAVY RAINFALL...Heavy rainfall is ongoing on the Big Island and
Maui County, and will spread to Oahu and Kauai this evening and
last into Sunday. Orographic enhancement will result in locally
higher rainfall totals where moist tropical flow interacts with
island terrain. Flash flooding and rapidly rising streams have
been observed and will will remain possible. The location of
heaviest rain so far has been over windward portions of the Big
Island and Maui. The latest forecast for windward portion of the
Big Island has an additional 6 to 10 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are possible on
windward Maui and up 8 inches of rainfall could occur across the
remainder of the island chain, again with localized higher amounts.
While the highest rainfall amounts will be focused over windward
areas, leeward areas will also have a significant flood risk.
Heavy rain could persist into Monday for some areas. A Flood Watch
remains in effect for all islands.

LARGE AND ROUGH SURF...Lala has generated a large easterly swell
that is bringing large surf to exposed east and southeast facing
shores. A High Surf Warning remains in effect for east facing
shores of Big Island, Maui, Molokai and Oahu, and a High Surf
Advisory is posted for east facing shores of Kauai. Very large and
extremely rough seas will produce damaging surf, significant
beach erosion, and overwash across vulnerable coastal
infrastructure, mainly on the Big Island of Hawaii. Highest storm
surge up to 3 feet is forecast for the eastern side of the Big
Island.

In anticipation of critical new updates with each of the advisory
packages issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the NWS
Honolulu will continue delaying the issuance of our typical forecast
package products (AFD, SFT, PFM, ZFP, SPF, CWF, etc.) until after
the release of NHC`s suite of products, to incorporate the latest
and most up-to-date information on Tropical Storm Lala.

Humid trade winds will take over Monday and last through the
next week in the wake of Lala`s departure.

&&

.AVIATION...
The center of Hurricane Lala is approximately 35 nm S of Hilo and
is moving west northwest at around 7 knots. Island-wide TAF sites
will experience strong northeast winds gusting to tropical storm
force peaking through through 12Z southern Islands and 10Z-17Z
northwestern islands. For PHKO low confidence in wind shift
timing. IFR to MVFR cigs/vsbys will be common in heavier showers
and nearest Lala.

A Big Island Maui and Lanai AIRMET for surface winds greater than
30 knots is currently in effect.

A Big Island Maui Molokai and Lanai AIRMET for IFR conditions is
currently in effect.

AIRMET SIERRA is currently in effect for north through east
areas of Oahu for mountain obscuration above 2500 feet.

AIRMET TANGO for moderate to isolated severe turbulence remains
in effect immediately south and west of mountains due to low level
winds. TANGO likely continue into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Hurricane Lala will pass over or just south of the Big Island
with hurricane conditions expected around the Big Island for which
a Hurricane Warning is in effect through tonight. Tropical Storm
Warnings remain in effect for Maui County and surrounding waters
through this time and are in effect from 6 PM this evening until 6
PM Sunday for the nearshore waters of Kauai and Oahu. Trades
return on Monday.

High Surf Warnings remain in effect for all E facing shores
except Kauai where an advisory remains in effect. Surf rapidly
declines tonight for the eastern end of the state but will take
through Sunday to fall below the advisory threshold for the
smaller islands. The High Surf Advisory for Kauai may require an
extension into Sunday.

Choppy conditions for N shores as short period swell wraps from
the east through the weekend. For S shores, surf remains below
the advisory threshold but will receive a small boost as short
period swell associated with Lala works through the area. Long
period energy from a distant Southern Ocean swell maintains S
shore surf Sunday into Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 510 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026

Increasing humidity and rainfall with Lala will remove fire
weather concerns through the next week. The temperature inversion
will not be present tonight.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tropical Storm Warning for Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-
Haleakala Summit-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai
Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-
Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai
South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central
Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai
Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-
Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-South Haleakala-
South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains-Windward
Haleakala.

Flood Watch through late Sunday night for Central Oahu-East
Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-
Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Koolau Leeward-Koolau
Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Waianae Coast-Waianae
Mountains.

High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Big Island East-Big
Island North-Big Island Southeast-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui
Windward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana-South
Haleakala-Windward Haleakala.

Flood Watch through late tonight for Big Island East-Big Island
Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-
Big Island Summits-Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu-Kohala-
Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui
Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-
Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai
Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-South
Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.

Hurricane Warning for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big
Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island
Summits-Kohala-Kona.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai East-Kauai
South.

Tropical Storm Warning for Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai
Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

Hurricane Warning for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward
Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai
Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Parker
FIRE WEATHER...Parker
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...JVC