Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
716 FXHW60 PHFO 030314 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 514 PM HST Mon Nov 2 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A breezy and stable trade wind flow will prevail through much of the week as surface high pressure holds north of the state. Pockets of moisture moving in the trades will focus rainfall over windward and mauka areas with showers briefly passing over leeward areas. && .UPDATE... Rough surf along north facing shores will continue a slow decline, and the High Surf Advisory has been cancelled. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 PM HST Mon Nov 2 2026 Gusty trade winds are in place as stable conditions build over the islands. A robust 1028 mb surface high is settling several hundred miles north of the state as a diffuse front dissipated near the islands today. Breezy trade winds have developed in most areas, and as a mid level ridge builds southward over the islands, an inversion based between 5,000 to 7,000 ft is producing increasingly stable conditions. As this stable trade wind flow interacts with terrain, gusty downslope winds have developed across some leeward portions of Big Island and Maui, where a Wind Advisory has been issued. A batch of moisture that kept Oahu rather wet this morning has cleared, with another area moving onto windward Big Island. On most islands, shower activity will be modest and largely confined to windward areas through remainder of the afternoon, while windward Big Island remains somewhat wet. For tonight, expect the trades to remain unchanged through the evening followed by a slight decline during the early morning hours. Winds are expected to diminish slightly as a band of moisture within the trade wind flow moves westward to around Kauai and Oahu. This feature will likely weaken the local pressure gradient and trade winds very slightly but enough for the Wind Advisory to be cancelled. Also, shower activity should pick up on windward Kauai and Oahu. The stable breezy trade wind flow will persist through at least Friday. Surface high pressure will hold north of the islands and maintain breezy and gusty trade winds. Pockets of moisture within the trades will focus showers over windward areas, and stability from ridging aloft will keep shower intensity moderate. Uncertainty increases this weekend, but moderate to breezy trade winds will likely persist. Over the next few days, we will continue to watch an area of potential tropical cyclone development far southeast of the state. Guidance continues to suggest that this system should pass south of the islands this weekend, but it will need to be closely monitored. Trade winds could ease slightly Sunday as a weakening front approaches. This feature may bring some increase in shower activity for Kauai Sunday or next Monday. && .AVIATION... Issued at 329 PM HST Mon Nov 2 2026 Earlier windward showers have largely diminished with VFR for area TAF sites. Trade winds remain moderate to strong, which has been quite gusty for some areas. This will continue into the evening, with some areas seeing lesser winds overnight. Expect trades to continue tomorrow with -SHRA/VCSH generally for windward areas. LLWS was added for PHKO, but that should improve later this evening. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for Oahu and Maui, and for the Big Island from Upolu Point to Cape Kumukahi to South Cape, for clouds and showers above 2000 feet. AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence between FL220 and FL350 statewide due to an upper level disturbance. AIRMET Tango is also in effect to cover moderate turbulence downwind of terrain statewide below 8000 feet. SIGMET OSCAR for severe turbulence has been cancelled. && .MARINE... Issued at 329 PM HST Mon Nov 2 2026 Dominant high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds through most of the week and into the weekend with slight day to day fluctuations. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect though Tuesday for the combination of winds for most waters and seas above 10 feet for areas exposed to a moderate north- northwest swell. The 10 foot seas will drop off tonight, but the winds will remain, therefore the SCA will likely be extended further into the week. Surf along north- and west-facing shores will likely remain at High Surf Advisory level conditions through the remainder of the afternoon as the current moderate, north-northwest swell continues to drop today. Offshore buoy data has stopped coming in as of early this morning, so some uncertainty exists regarding when exactly the advisory level surf will drop below thresholds. Therefore the advisory will be allowed to expire at 6pm. Surf will then become small by Wednesday. Another moderate, long period northwest swell arrives Wednesday night and will likely push north and west shore surf back to advisory levels Thursday into Friday. A medium- period swell fills in on Saturday, likely prolonging moderate to large surf action into the weekend. The current moderate, medium period south swell will continue a gradual decline through Tuesday. South shore surf will be tiny through much of the week with little southerly background energy reaching the islands. East-facing shores will see an increase in trade wind swell as strong northeast winds remain. Surf along east-facing shores will stay big and choppy through much of the week with the trades. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 329 PM HST Mon Nov 2 2026 Breezy winds during the next several days will produce moderate fire weather conditions since recent rainfall has likely limited the widespread availability of receptive fuels. The temperature inversion near Big Island will range from 6000 to 8000 ft over the next few days. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Big Island North-Kohala- Lanai Mauka-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-South Haleakala. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wroe AVIATION...Michael MARINE...Tsamous FIRE WEATHER...Wroe