Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
261 FXHW60 PHFO 040102 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 302 PM HST Fri Oct 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Gentle to moderate east-southeast winds will continue through Saturday in response to an approaching cold front in the North Central Pacific, allowing localized daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes to continue. Moderate trades are forecast to build back late Saturday and remain into early next week as a new high builds north of the state. && .DISCUSSION... Gentle to moderate east-southeast winds will continue through Saturday in response to an approaching cold front in the North Central Pacific. The front will stall out north of the islands and will not have a direct impact on our weather. Current radar and satellite data show a few clouds and scattered showers mostly passing by the islands offshore, but occasionally impacting windward and mauka locations. Trades are slowly veering southeast with some clouds building across some island interiors. With the veering trades expect land breezes tonight which will help keep showers offshore. Latest guidance indicates easterly trades will build back into the region Saturday afternoon and continue into early next week as a new surface high develops and strengthens far to the northeast of the state. Clouds and showers will again focus back to windward and mauka areas. A broad surface trough will develop northeast of the state around Monday and slowly track westward across the island chain through the middle part of next week. Winds will again taper off and put us in a land and sea breeze regime, but forecast confidence is low for placement of any showers as this feature moves through the state. && .AVIATION... East-southeast flow continues. Showers were focused leeward this afternoon in association with sea breezes. This will continue through the afternoon before switching to land breezes overnight. Showers will be minimal tonight and mainly in windward areas. VFR conditions prevail with isolated MVFR ceilings and visibilities near showers. No AIRMET currently in effect. For tonight, expect to see cloud build-ups and isolated to scattered showers switch focus from leeward to windward areas, with additional showers possible from plumes downwind of mountains. Trade winds are expected to build back in fully Saturday, reducing or eliminating land breezes and bringing more showers to windward areas compared to today. Leeward areas should see less activity than today. && .MARINE... An approaching cold front and trough to the northwest will keep light to moderate east southeast winds in place tonight with localized land and sea breezes. By tomorrow morning the front and trough are expected to weaken and moderate to locally fresh east northeast trades build in and last through Sunday. A trough may develop northeast of the state early next week, weakening winds to light and variable. The current small medium period northwest (310-320 deg) swell from Tropical cyclone Neoguri will decline this afternoon and tonight. A moderate, medium period north northwest (330 deg) swell generated from the current low located far north northwest of the islands is expected to fill in on Saturday, peak Sunday just below High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria for north facing shores, and slowly fade into early next week. Another small medium to long period swell from the northwest (320 deg) is expected to fill in Monday, peak Tuesday and decline through the middle of next week. The current small, long period southwest (210 deg) swell will slowly decline into early next week. A small, long period southwest swell may arrive late Sunday and build into early next week before subsiding. Another small long period southwest (200 deg) swell is possible by the later half of next week. Surf along east- facing shores will remain below average into early next week with the a slight boost Saturday into Sunday as moderate to fresh trades briefly return. && .FIRE WEATHER... Wind speeds and humidity will remain below critical fire weather thresholds for the next seven days. Temperature inversion heights across the state will range from 6000 to 7000 feet today. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Walsh AVIATION...Wroe/Parker MARINE...Tsamous FIRE WEATHER...Walsh