Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
351 FXHW60 PHFO 030622 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 822 PM HST Mon Nov 2 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A breezy and stable trade wind flow will prevail through much of the week as surface high pressure holds north of the state. Pockets of moisture moving in the trades will focus rainfall over windward and mauka areas with showers briefly passing over leeward areas. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... Forecast remains on track with winds easing slightly overnight and lowering just below wind advisory criteria by Tuesday morning. Winds could strengthen again above advisory levels Tuesday evening into Wednesday as the surface high builds slightly. Will continue to monitor trends overnight and make a determination on whether to cancel or extend the wind advisory given the short period in time when wind will drop below advisory levels and strengthen again. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 514 PM HST Mon Nov 2 2026 Gusty trade winds are in place as stable conditions build over the islands. A robust 1028 mb surface high is settling several hundred miles north of the state as a diffuse front dissipated near the islands today. Breezy trade winds have developed in most areas, and as a mid level ridge builds southward over the islands, an inversion based between 5,000 to 7,000 ft is producing increasingly stable conditions. As this stable trade wind flow interacts with terrain, gusty downslope winds have developed across some leeward portions of Big Island and Maui, where a Wind Advisory has been issued. A batch of moisture that kept Oahu rather wet this morning has cleared, with another area moving onto windward Big Island. On most islands, shower activity will be modest and largely confined to windward areas through remainder of the afternoon, while windward Big Island remains somewhat wet. For tonight, expect the trades to remain unchanged through the evening followed by a slight decline during the early morning hours. Winds are expected to diminish slightly as a band of moisture within the trade wind flow moves westward to around Kauai and Oahu. This feature will likely weaken the local pressure gradient and trade winds very slightly but enough for the Wind Advisory to be cancelled. Also, shower activity should pick up on windward Kauai and Oahu. The stable breezy trade wind flow will persist through at least Friday. Surface high pressure will hold north of the islands and maintain breezy and gusty trade winds. Pockets of moisture within the trades will focus showers over windward areas, and stability from ridging aloft will keep shower intensity moderate. Uncertainty increases this weekend, but moderate to breezy trade winds will likely persist. Over the next few days, we will continue to watch an area of potential tropical cyclone development far southeast of the state. Guidance continues to suggest that this system should pass south of the islands this weekend, but it will need to be closely monitored. Trade winds could ease slightly Sunday as a weakening front approaches. This feature may bring some increase in shower activity for Kauai Sunday or next Monday. && .AVIATION... A weakening stationary front over the islands will continue to dissipate overnight with a ridge to the north maintaining moderate to locally strong trade winds across the region. Clouds and showers will be focused over the windward slopes, but the strong winds could carry some showers to leeward areas at times. Generally VFR conditions are expected, with the exception of the windward side of the Big Island. AIRMET Sierra is in place there for mountain obscuration, and that will likely remain in place through tonight and possibly into Tuesday. AIRMET Tango remains in effect due to the mechanical turbulence to the lee of the mountains below 8000 feet. Anticipate this AIRMET to remain posted beyond 24 hours. && .MARINE... Dominant high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds through most of the week and into the weekend with slight day to day fluctuations. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect through Tuesday for the combination of winds for most waters and seas above 10 feet for areas exposed to a moderate north- northwest swell. The 10 foot seas will drop off tonight, but the winds will remain, therefore the SCA will likely be extended further into the week. The moderate, north-northwest swell will continue to subside tonight and surf along north and west facing shores has dropped just below advisory levels. Surf will continue to decline Tuesday and then become small by Wednesday. Another moderate, long period northwest swell arrives Wednesday night and will likely push north and west shore surf back to advisory levels Thursday into Friday. A medium- period swell fills in on Saturday, likely prolonging moderate to large surf action into the weekend. The current moderate, medium period south swell will continue a gradual decline through Tuesday. South shore surf will be tiny through much of the week with little southerly background energy reaching the islands. East-facing shores will see an increase in trade wind swell as strong northeast winds remain. Surf along east- facing shores will stay big and choppy through much of the week with the trades. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 514 PM HST Mon Nov 2 2026 Breezy winds during the next several days will produce moderate fire weather conditions since recent rainfall has likely limited the widespread availability of receptive fuels. The temperature inversion near Big Island will range from 6000 to 8000 ft over the next few days. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Big Island North-Kohala- Lanai Mauka-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-South Haleakala. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...Almanza DISCUSSION...Wroe AVIATION...M Ballard MARINE...Quesada