023
FXHW60 PHFO 021353
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
353 AM HST Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to locally windy trades and rather dry and stable
conditions will continue today. Clouds and light showers being
carried in on the trade wind flow will remain focused over
windward and mauka areas, while most leeward areas will remain
dry. Stable trade winds will gradually ease Sunday through Tuesday
and may become disrupted Wednesday or Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
No change to the forecast or forecast philosophy this morning.
High pressure to the north and northeast, and low pressure to the
south, combined with high pressure aloft, remain the driving
force behind our weather.

This combination has tightened the pressure gradient over the
islands leading to a gusty, stable and relatively dry trade wind
flow that will continue today. The inversion is between 5,000 to
6,500 feet, and the resulting stability will continue to produce
localized strong winds near terrain across the Kohala Districts of
the Big Island and the central valley of Maui, where the Wind
Advisory continue through this afternoon. Shallow pockets of
moisture being carried in on the trade wind flow will continue to
bring light rainfall accumulation mainly to windward slopes, with
leeward areas remaining dry.

Trade winds will gradually decline Sunday into Tuesday as the high
drifts eastward and the local pressure gradient slowly relaxes.
The stable pattern of mainly windward and mauka showers,
essentially typical August rainfall, should persist as little
organized moisture is depicted in the guidance.

Trades will likely become disrupted Wednesday or Thursday, though
there is uncertainty in the details. The latest National
Hurricane Center forecast depicts current east Pacific Tropical
Storm Gil weakening to a remnant low well east of Hawaii early
next week, and the GFS and ECMWF show a remnant circulation
passing north or near the state as early as Wednesday but
potentially Thursday. Disrupted trades is the most likely
scenario, but it`s too early to know if there will be any
significant chance for enhanced rainfall.


&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure far north and northeast of the islands, combined
with a low pressure system to the southwest, will maintain breezy
to windy trade winds into the weekend. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail, however some passing showers could bring brief MVFR
conditions mainly to windward and mountain areas, especially
overnight and in the early morning hours.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate with isolated severe
turbulence over and immediately S through W of the island
mountains due to strong trade winds and gusts.


&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain far north of the state this weekend and
help generate fresh to locally strong trades across the local
waters. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through
tonight for most marine zones surrounding Maui and the Big
Island, then limited to the typical windier zones through Sunday
as trades begin to ease. Trades will continue to weaken through
mid next week as the aforementioned high drifts further east.

South swell energy has shown signs of a slow decline this
morning, noted on the Lanai nearshore buoy, both in magnitude and
period. By mid-morning, the remaining 4 foot moderate period
swell will likely be generating elevated surf along south facing
shores, just shy of advisory criteria. Thus, the High Surf
Advisory has been canceled. Another moderate, long period, south
swell is poised to arrive late Sunday into Monday, once again
building surf to near advisory levels.

East shore surf will remain elevated and choppy through Sunday
morning due to locally strong trade winds, then lower slightly as
trades begin to slowly ease late Sunday and beyond.

Nearly flat conditions will prevail along north facing shores
through tonight. A small long period northwest swell, originating
from Typhoon Krosa in the western Pacific, will bring a small bump
up in surf along north facing shores Sunday into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A gusty, stable, and rather dry trade wind flow will remain in
place today, producing critical fire weather conditions, with
winds of 20 mph or more and daytime relative humidity of 35 to 45
percent. A strong inversion based between 5,000 to 6,500 feet
will ensure that higher elevations of the Big Island and portions
of Haleakala on Maui experience very low relative humidity. Winds
will decline Sunday into Tuesday, lowering fire weather concerns.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau-Kauai
South-Kauai Southwest-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-
Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Central Oahu-Waianae Mountains-
Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Windward-
Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward
West-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-South
Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island
Southeast-Kohala-Big Island Interior.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kohala-Maui
Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kaiwi
Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...Thomas
FIRE WEATHER...M Ballard