061
FXHW60 PHFO 260255
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
455 PM HST Fri Sep 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Nolo continues to slowly move to the north towards the
Big Island, and is expected to make a turn to the west tonight.
Moisture on the north side of Nolo will interact with the terrain
of the Big Island and Maui, and could lead to significant flash
flooding, particularly on the windward and southeast portions of
the Big Island. Localized strong and gust winds are possible
statewide, with the highest winds expected on the Big Island due
to the proximity to Nolo.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

High-level cloudiness with light showers prevailed across the Big
Island this afternoon as Hurricane Nolo continues to move slowly
north-northeast. The rest of the islands remained relatively quiet,
aside from breeze conditions throughout the day.

Latest radar imagery shows rainbands associated with Nolo inching
closer to the Big Island. These bands are expected to move through
tonight into Saturday morning, producing periods of heavy rainfall
that could lead to flash flooding and dangerous mudslides.

The latest National Hurricane Center track still indicates Nolo will
make its closest approach late tonight before turning westward.
Although forecast precipitation amounts for the state have been
adjusted slightly downward, rainfall totals remain high enough to
cause life-threatreninh flooding,especially across the Big Island.
Other impacts are summarized in the marine and aviation sections.

Impacts from Nolo will worsen through tomorrow morning and persist
through Saturday night. A slow improvement in weather conditions is
expected on Sunday as Nolo moves away from the area.

By the middle of next week, troughing will draw Nolo north or
northeastward to the west of Kauai. Toward the end of next week,
light south-to-southeast wind flow is expected to prevail as the
pressure gradient over the state weakens substantially.


&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty trade winds will continue across most of the islands into
the weekend, with gusts peaking between 25 to 35 knots. Gusts up
to 40 knots are possible at the windiest sites. For the western
islands, occasional trade showers are likely to continue across
windward and mauka areas, while heavier rain remains concentrated
from Molokai through the Big Island as Hurricane Nolo passes
south of the state. The highest potential for moderate to heavy
rain remains across the Big Island, with reductions in ceilings
and visibilities likely as shower activity becomes more frequent.
Observations from Hilo this afternoon already show prolonged and
widespread IFR conditions over eastern Big Island, and periods of
IFR to LIFR conditions remain possible through Saturday.
Thunderstorm chances remain low.

AIRMET Sierra has been issued for IFR conditions across eastern
Big Island, and will likely remain in effect through tonight.
Additionally, AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain
obscuration for eastern Maui, and this will likely be needed
through the night as well.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of
island terrain due to breezy trade winds. Expect this to continue
through the forecast period. It is possible that an AIRMET for
sustained 30 kt winds will be needed for the Big Island by
Saturday as Nolo passes to the south.

TC SIGMET Oscar series covers Hurricane Nolo, and interests should
continue to monitor for updates to this SIGMET.

&&

.MARINE...

Hurricane Warnings around the Big Island and Tropical Storm
Warnings around Maui County remain in effect as Hurricane Nolo
inches northward. A Gale Watch is in effect for the remaining
waters through Sunday. Nolo is still forecast to turn west well
before reaching the Big Island or adjacent nearshore waters, but
strong winds and high seas can nonetheless be expected well away
from the storm itself.

South to southeast fresh swell emanating from Nolo will spread
west across the southern nearshore waters as the system tracks
west through early next week. The High Surf Advisory (HSA) for E
and SE facing shores of the Big Island, Maui, and Molokai remains
in effect and has been extended through Sunday. In addition, an
HSA is now in effect for Kauai, Oahu, and Niihau beginning tonight
due to strengthening trades. A small, long period NW swell fills
in this weekend in maintenance of elevated surf along exposed
shorelines into early next week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 437 PM HST Fri Sep 25 2026

Winds will steadily increase as Hurricane Nolo moves
closer. Very strong winds are possible on the Big Island, though
heavy rainfall will likely mitigate fire danger over most areas.
From Kauai to Maui County, rainfall over the last month has led to
some improvement in fuels, but the gusty trade winds will produce
moderate fire weather conditions over drier leeward areas through
the weekend. Drier conditions are expected early next week, although
winds will diminish substantially as pressure gradient weakens.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM HST Sunday for Central
Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kauai East-Kauai
Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Koolau Leeward-
Koolau Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Waianae Coast-
Waianae Mountains.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Kauai East-Kauai
South-Koolau Windward-Olomana.

Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for Big Island East-Big
Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island
Southeast-Big Island Summits-Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu-
Kohala-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-
Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward
West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-
Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-
South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.

Tropical Storm Watch for Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu-
Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui
Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-
Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai
Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-South
Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island East-Big
Island North-Big Island Southeast-Kipahulu-Maui Windward West-
Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-Windward
Haleakala.

Hurricane Watch for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big
Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island
Summits-Kohala-Kona.

Tropical Storm Warning for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-
Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big
Island Summits-Kohala-Kona.

Tropical Storm Watch for Kaiwi Channel-Maalaea Bay-Maui County
Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

Hurricane Watch for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-
Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.

Tropical Storm Warning for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward
Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Channel-
Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.

Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for
Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai
Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castro
AVIATION...Vaughan
MARINE...JVC
FIRE....Castro