290
FXHW60 PHFO 262138
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1138 AM HST Sat Sep 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Nolo has begun its anticipated westward movement south
of the Big Island. Localized strong and gusty winds will occur
across all islands through Sunday, with the highest winds expected
over and downwind of terrain on the Big Island and Maui. The
remains a chance for flooding over portions of the Big Island and
Maui today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Hurricane Nolo, now located about 160 miles south of Big Island,
has begun its long anticipated turn toward the west. A mid to
upper level ridge building north of the state has initiated the
westward turn of Nolo and is creating some stability from Maui to
Kauai. A tight pressure gradient north of Nolo and the modest
developing stability has created conditions conducive for
downsloping winds within the strong trade wind flow. As a result,
Wind Advisory conditions prevail on Oahu and Kauai, and portions
of Maui County downwind of terrain are experiencing gusts of 60
mph or more, mainly in the area around Ukumehame and Olowalu. A
Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Maui County. A Tropical
Storm Warning remains in effect for the Big Island, where wind
gusts over 60 mph are being observed in the Kohala Districts. A
Flood Watch also remains in effect for Big Island and Maui. The
flood threat is rapidly diminishing for Maui, and lower rain rates
on windward and southeast Big Island have mitigated flood impacts
so far. The flood threat for Big Island will diminish tonight.

As Nolo moves westward tonight and Sunday, the Tropical Storm
Warning for Big Island and the Tropical Storm Watch for Maui
County should be discontinued. However, strong and gusty trade
winds will persist due to the tight pressure gradient north of
Nolo. Expect the Wind Advisory to be expanded to cover much of
Maui County and Big Island, while some leeward areas over and
downwind of terrain on Maui and Big Island be placed under a High
Wind Warning. The threat of heavy rainfall will diminish on Big
Island overnight, with modest windward rainfall due across the
rest of the state.

The forecast was nudged to the NBM starting Monday onwards. The
mid level trough mentioned above will help to draw Nolo north and
then northwestward early next week. At this time the forecast
keeps Nolo west of Kauai. Toward the end of next week, light
south- to- southeast wind flow is expected to prevail as the
pressure gradient over the state weakens substantially.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty winds of 25 to 35 kt will continue across most of the area
with isolated higher gusts associated with Hurricane Nolo.
Scattered MVFR conditions are possible in showers, mainly across
western areas and especially windward portions of Maui and Big
Island, as well as Molokai and Lanai. Honolulu should see more
isolated passing showers.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across entire
area.

AIRMET Tango has been issued for moderate turbulence downwind of
terrain due to the strong winds, with isolated severe turbulence
also possible.

Tropical SIGMET Oscar covers Hurricane Nolo.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 11 AM HST this morning, Hurricane Nolo was located near
16.7N 156.0W, approximately 160 miles south of South Point, and
moving W at 4 knots. The Hurricane Watch for the waters
surrounding the Big Island was dropped late this morning, but the
Tropical Storm Warning for those waters remains in effect, as does
the Tropical Storm Watch for the waters surrounding Maui County
as Hurricane Nolo begins to accelerate slowly westward. A Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect for the remaining waters through
this afternoon, with a Gale Watch in effect tonight through
Sunday. Nolo is expected to remain south of the Hawaiian Islands,
centered well outside of the coastal waters this weekend, but
strong winds and high seas can nonetheless be expected well away
from the storm itself. The hurricane will gain distance from the
islands as it begins to turn northwest by early next week, leading
to more limited impacts by Monday.

A combination of southeast swell originating from Hurricane Nolo and
strengthening easterly trade winds is producing advisory level surf
for east facing shores of Kauai and Oahu, and east and southeast
facing shores of Maui, Molokai, and the Big Island today. Advisory
level surf is expected to continue through Sunday, for which the High
Surf Advisory remains in effect. By that point, Nolo will gain some
distance from the islands to the southwest, leading to less direct
swell impacts and weakening trade winds, which will decrease east and
southeast shore surf below advisory criteria. A series of small,
medium-period east swells are expected from Hurricanes Odalys and Polo
in the East Pacific next week.

South facing shores can expect at least a moderate bump to surf
as Hurricane Nolo tracks south of the islands through the weekend,
with the best chance of seeing advisory conditions along south-
facing shores of leeward Big Island and Maui on Sunday. As Nolo
accelerates westward, the south swell it generates and sends up to
the rest of the smaller islands is expected to be slightly
smaller. A small, long period northwest swell also fills in this
weekend and brings a small bump to north facing shores into early
next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As Hurricane Nolo moves westward through the weekend, easterly
winds will remain very strong and gusty over and downwind of
terrain. Rainfall over the last month has led to some improvement
in fuels, but the strong and gusty trade winds will produce
moderate fire weather conditions over drier leeward areas today.
With drier and continued windy weather due on Sunday, near
critical fire weather conditions are expected, with the only
limiting factor remaining the readiness of fuels.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-
Kauai Mountains-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Central
Oahu-Waianae Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai East-Kauai South-East
Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Koolau Windward-Koolau
Leeward.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Olomana-Maui
Windward West-Kauai East-Kauai South-Koolau Windward-Molokai
Windward-Molokai Southeast-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-South
Haleakala-Big Island Southeast-Big Island East-Big Island North.

Flood Watch until 6 PM HST this evening for Lanai Mauka-
Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Haleakala Summit-
Kona-Kohala-Big Island Interior-Big Island Summits-Molokai-Lanai
Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley North-
Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-South
Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island
Southeast-Big Island East-Big Island North.

Tropical Storm Watch for Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-Maui Windward
West-Maui Leeward West-Haleakala Summit-Molokai-Lanai Windward-
Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central
Valley South-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-South Maui/Upcountry-
South Haleakala.

Tropical Storm Warning for Big Island-

Tropical Storm Watch for Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward
Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.

Tropical Storm Warning for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island
Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast
Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-
Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters.

Gale Watch from 6 PM HST this evening through Sunday afternoon
for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward
Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wroe
AVIATION...PECHACEK
MARINE...Farris
FIRE WEATHER...Wroe