052
FXHW60 PHFO 081311
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
311 AM HST Mon Jun 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trades will gradually weaken to moderate speeds by the
latter half of the week. Periodic showers will filter in on the
trade wind flow, mainly focusing over windward and mauka areas
through midweek. By the weekend, the background flow may become
light enough to support land and sea breeze development, and
showers may increase in some leeward areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An area of showers extended from Kauai County and Oahu east into
the open waters this morning, and light showers have been frequent
visitors to those islands. Maui County and the Big Island have
been mostly dry. This pattern should continue into the daylight
hours, especially over Kauai County, as satellite shows additional
clouds capable of producing showers headed that way. The trade
wind inversion is expected to remain around 7000 feet today,
resulting in fairly stable conditions and no heavy rain is
forecast.

With high pressure at the surface off to our northeast, trade
winds will continue today and for several more days. The pressure
gradient will begin to weaken Wednesday night into Thursday, and
remain weak through the weekend, leading to lower wind speeds.
This in turn will allow for a hybrid pattern of weak trade winds
combined with sea and land breezes. And sea breezes during the day
usually lead to an increase in afternoon clouds and showers over
leeward areas. The forecast was moved farther in this direction
with this latest update. Otherwise, the long range forecast calls
for a return to stronger trades early next week. There are no
tropical systems within range of the islands, and none expected
over the next seven days (at least). Finally, models remain
consistent in showing a front approaching the state from the
northwest this weekend, but the moist band associated with it is
not expected to reach us.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to breezy trade winds are expected to continue through
Monday before gradually weakening heading into midweek. Showers
embedded within the tradewind flow are primarily impacting
windward and mountain areas, with limited spillover into leeward
areas. Brief MVFR conditions are expected within showers while VFR
prevails elsewhere.

No AIRMETs for mountain obscuration are in effect this morning,
but it is possible that with clouds and showers moving in, it
could be issued for any of the islands.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for mechanical turbulence downwind of
the mountains due to breezy trade winds, and this is expected to
continue through at least Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will remain anchored far northeast of the
islands through early this week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA),
remains in effect for the typical windy waters around Maui and the
Big Island until 6 PM tonight. By midweek, a ridge north of the
islands associated with the high will be weakened and depressed
southward resulting in even weaker trades. As the ridge shifts
further south, it will eventually end up near the Hawaiian Islands
by Friday or Saturday, which will bring light and variable winds
across the area towards the end of the week.

Small long-period south swell continue to fill in this morning.
Energy from this swell is expected to peak later today into
tomorrow and bump up surf to slightly higher than the June
averages, but still below advisory criteria. This swell is
expected to fade through midweek. A smaller pulse of south-
southwest swell is due late Thursday and Friday, and a more
significant south- southwest swell is on track to arrive next
weekend, likely bringing advisory level surf by late Sunday along
south facing shores.

The combination of a large south-southwest swell coinciding with
the peak monthly tides will lead to significant wave runup across
areas of the shore that typically remain dry during the afternoon
high tide cycle from June 14th through June 16th. Coastal flooding
is also expected across low-lying coastal roadways, docks, boat
ramps and other coastal infrastructure.

Small background energy from the west-northwest is possible over
the next several days from a former Typhoon in the West Pacific
last week.

Rough surf along east-facing shores will remain around seasonal
averages slowly declining through midweek as trades ease. Surf
will drop well below seasonal levels along east facing shores by
the end of the week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...Walsh