191
FXHW60 PHFO 010608
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
808 PM HST Wed Sep 30 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Nolo will gradually accelerate westward away from
the state over the next several days. Elevated moisture content
being drawn up in the southeast flow will maintain a wetter
pattern for Hawaii through the end of the week. Then drier trades
are expected to return over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
As Tropical Storm Nolo pushes very gradually westward away from
the state, moisture being drawn up in the convergent southeasterly
flow will continue to supply showers to mainly the western half
of the state overnight into Thursday. Some of these showers will
be moderate to heavy, with 1 to 2 inch per hour rates currently
observed on radar. With the rainfall already received since
Tuesday night for Kauai and Oahu, will be watching for any
persistent heavy showers over localized areas that might lead to
nuisance flooding overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 PM HST Wed Sep 30 2026

Cloudiness with showers, heavy at times, were observed across
Kauai and Oahu late this morning and early this afternoon.
Showers moved from south to north through both islands, producing
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. By mid afternoon, most of
the activity moved out of the islands. Rest of the state remained
relatively dry, with few isolated showers moving from time to
time.

This activity was associated with a moist south flow, induced by
Tropical Storm Nolo`s circulation. Tropical Storm Nolo continues
to move slowly near Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
waters and will continue to do so for the next couple of days. The
National Hurricane Center forecast brings tropical Storm Nolo
back to hurricane status in 72 hours, but no impacts are expected
across the state as Nolo continues moving away from the area.

Although Nolo will continue moving slowly away from our coastal
waters, deep tropical moisture will move across the region
through at least Saturday afternoon. PWAT values will remain above
1.7 inches throughout the period, decreasing to 1.25 by Sunday as
a drier air mass takes control of the weather locally. Therefore,
chances for precipitation will continue, especially on Friday as
models are suggesting new bands of showers will move throughout
the region.

In the long term, a high pressure system is expected to build
northwest of the region, bringing dry weather conditions under a
northeast wind flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to breezy southeast winds will gradually ease tonight
into Thursday as Tropical Storm Nolo tracks west, away from the
state. Outer rain bands associated with Nolo will bring showers
mainly over Kauai and Oahu from the south through Thursday, with
Kauai expecting the most coverage. MVFR and even IFR conditions
will be possible within these showers.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration above 2000 feet is in
effect for all portions of the smaller islands due to clouds and
showers moving in from the south and southeast. This AIRMET will
likely continue through tonight, and likely through the day
Thursday for Kauai and Oahu.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 420 PM HST Wed Sep 30 2026

Moderate to fresh south to southeast winds will weaken slightly
to moderate levels by Thursday as Tropical Storm Nolo slowly
drifts westward away from the main Hawaiian Islands. Since winds
and seas have decreased below advisory levels this afternoon, the
Small Craft Advisory that was previously in effect for waters
surrounding Kauai has been cancelled. East to northeast trades
will fill back in across the waters this weekend.

The moderate, short to medium period west to southwest swell
originating from Nolo will continue for Niihau and Kauai through
Friday night. Additionally, a small background south swell
continues for other islands. The next small, long period south
swell energy will arrive either late Sunday or Monday.

Surf along other shores will remain small until moderate trades
return late this weekend, providing a slight boost to east facing
shores. Multiple rounds of tiny northwest swell energy will reach
north and west facing shores this weekend into early next week as
the storms tracking near the Aleutian Islands become increasingly
active.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 420 PM HST Wed Sep 30 2026

Fire weather conditions will improve through the remainder of the
week in response to higher southern moisture and moderate
southeasterlies. Drier weather conditions and lower relative
humidities are then expected by the weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...Farris
DISCUSSION...Castro
AVIATION...Foster
MARINE...Vaughan
FIRE WEATHER...Castro