955
FXHW60 PHFO 090151
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
351 PM HST Sat Aug 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trades will focus low clouds and showers over windward and
mauka areas through mid-next week. A plume of moisture moving
south of the islands will increase rain chances across the eastern
end of the state through Monday, followed by drier conditions
through midweek. Brewing disturbances within the tropics will need
to be monitored for more organized development over the next
several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure to the far northeast and a weak trough approaching
from the southeast will continue to drive breezy trades across the
state through the weekend. Satellite imagery shows mostly dry
conditions persisting across the western half of the state this
afternoon along with some passing high cirrus, and increasing low
cloud and shower coverage over the eastern end. These clouds and
showers moving into windward slopes of the Big Island marks the
leading edge of a larger plume of moisture associated with the
aforementioned westward-moving surface trough passing south of the
state this weekend. Some of this moisture may track up the island
chain to increase windward and mauka showers across Maui,
Molokai, and possibly Oahu tonight into Sunday, though the highest
rain chances remain centered over the Big Island. Forecast
soundings indicate modest instability over the Big Island
tomorrow. Combined with increasing tropical moisture and daytime
heating, this may produce an isolated thunderstorm or two over
interior slopes during the afternoon hours.

As the pressure gradient relaxes slightly in response to the
surface trough weakening and moving farther westward away from
the state, moderate to breezy trades are expected Monday through
about Thursday. Drier air will fill in across the island chain
midweek, dropping dew points and providing some relief from the
mugginess.

Beyond Thursday, forecast confidence decreases, as local weather
will depend on the possible development and progression of a
tropical cyclone in the Central Pacific. The National Hurricane
Center is monitoring an easterly wave about 1,400 miles east-
southeast of the state, assigning an 80 percent probability of
tropical cyclone development over the next 7 days. While it
remains too early to discuss specific local impacts, this feature
warrants close monitoring over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail for the next several
days. MVFR ceilings will be focused over typical windward slopes,
but will be widespread over windward Big Island tonight due to an
area of deeper moisture moving in on the trades. AIRMET Sierra is
in effect for windward Big Island and will likely be expanded
tonight or Sunday to cover windward Big Island, Maui, and Molokai
as the moisture spreads westward. VFR conditions will prevail over
most leeward areas, though portions of leeward Big Island could
experience extensive MVFR conditions with scattered heavy SHRA
Sunday afternoon.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb downwind of island
terrain. This AIRMET will likely be need for next several days.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to locally strong trade winds will persist through at least
Wednesday as high pressure remains anchored northeast of the
state. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the typical
windy channels and waters around Maui County and the Big Island
through Sunday afternoon. This advisory many need to be extended
further, as borderline conditions will prevail through at least
Wednesday. Later in the week, the focus will shift to the deep
tropics southeast of the state. A tropical cyclone could develop
and have an effect on local winds, seas and weather as early as
Friday.

Continued small overlapping south-southwest swells will produce
south shore surf near August average this weekend and near to
above average Monday and Tuesday. A larger swell will arrive
Tuesday night and may push surf to the High Surf Advisory level
late Wednesday through Friday. This swell should slowly decrease
next weekend.

Along east-facing shores, short-period trade wind swell will
generate surf just below August average through Thursday.
Depending on how potential tropical cyclone development plays out
southeast of the islands, an increase in southeast swell is
possible Friday and next weekend. Aside from wrapping trade wind
energy, surf along north-facing shores will remain flat to tiny
through the week.

Due to a combination of peak monthly high tides and water levels
running higher than predicted in a few locations, minor coastal
flooding will be possible around the afternoon high tide as early
as Sunday, with peak conditions Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...Wroe
MARINE...Wroe