731
FXHW60 PHFO 290103
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
303 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy east southeast winds with a drier airmass will limit clouds
and showers through tonight. Clouds and showers will increase
Tuesday through Thursday as Nolo passes to the west with rain
bands along the east side of the storm encroaching Kauai and Oahu.
Nolo moves away to the northwest by this weekend with trades
filling in.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy east southeast winds with a drier airmass will limit clouds
and showers tonight. Major Hurricane Nolo (cat. 4) is around 415
miles west southwest of Honolulu this afternoon and has made it`s
turn to the northwest. Main impacts in the short-term will be the
breezy, but weakening winds across the state due to the pressure
difference between Nolo and the subtropical high far to the
northeast, and the southwest swell directed towards Kauai. Nolo
will weaken down to a cat. 1 hurricane and stall around 250 to 300
miles west of Kauai on Tuesday night and Wednesday, then continue
on a more west northwesterly track away from the state through
the second half of the week.

Winds will remain brisk and gradually veer southeasterly as Nolo
gains latitude. Rain bands along Nolo`s eastern flank will bring
an increase in rainfall across Kauai beginning Tuesday and Oahu
by Tuesday night, as the southeasterly flow directs showers over
populated areas of both islands. Guidance shows varying amounts
and lengths of time that the bands will impact the western end of
the state, and will ultimately depend on Nolo`s eventual path over
the next few days. QPF has been adjusted for the Tuesday to
Thursday period with 3 to 6 inches of additional rain on Kauai and
Niihau, and up to 4 inches on Oahu. Not considering a Flood Watch
at this time with the anticipation these rainfall amounts will be
spread out over several days and showers should be moving along
quickly.

East southeasterly winds will continue, but gradually weaken,
through the second half of the week as Nolo tracks away. By this
weekend, trade winds are forecast to build in bringing drier and
more stable conditions again.


&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy trade winds continue through this evening before winds
decrease overnight. Trade winds are generally expected to be
lighter tomorrow as Hurricane Nolo continues to move away from the
state. Trade showers continue to the east of the islands and
across windward and mountain locations. Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday, there will be an increase in moisture being transported
towards Kauai and Oahu which will bring an increased likelihood
of shower chances there. Showers are most likely across Kauai
starting late Tuesday morning with shower chances gradually
increasing for Oahu late Tuesday into Wednesday.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below
9,000 feet over and immediately downwind of island terrain. This
AIRMET will likely be needed through mid- week.




&&

.MARINE...
Strong E trades become moderate to breezy out of the SE tonight
in response to Hurricane Nolo advancing northwestward. The
exception will be around Kauai where proximity to Nolo will allow
for the gradient to remain strong. Near gales will be possible
immediately west of Kauai tonight through Wednesday, particularly
in the channel between Kauai and Niihau. Here, the Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) has been extended through Wednesday for both winds
and seas. Elsewhere, the SCA remains in place and is still
scheduled to expire Tuesday morning. Moderate easterlies

Tiny long period energy out of the S is noted on the Barber`s
Point PacIOOS Buoy this afternoon. This energy represents the
initial forerunners of a rather small (about 1 foot), long period
swell that will maintain elevated surf for S shores through mid-
week. This is separate from the more substantial short to medium
period fresh swell emanating from Nolo which has prompted today`s
High Surf Advisories (HSA) for S shores and W facing shores of the
Big Island. Uncertainty related to the size of Nolo`s swell
coupled with its slow forward motion Tuesday night through
Wednesday will be a theme in the forecast for the next couple of
days. The latest observations support expiring the HSA for all but
Kauai and Niihau where the bulk of the SW energy is directed. For
Kauai/Niihau in particular, high surf may linger into midweek
conditional on the exact size of Nolo`s swell. Likewise, as Nolo
lifts north, it`s westerly swell influence will increase
potentially supporting an HSA for Big Island-West during the
middle of this week.

Surf along E shores slowly declines as trades veer to SE and
diminish then return as light to moderate easterlies this weekend.
A small, long period S swell originating east of New Zealand is
poised to arrive early next week in maintenance of elevated surf
along S facing shores.

For N facing shores, the existing small medium period swell fades
through Wednesday. Multiple rounds of tiny swell originating out
of the NW quadrant will reach N and select W facing exposures next
week as the storm track in the vicinity of the Aleutian Islands
becomes increasingly active.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and stable with breezy east southeast winds expected through
through tonight, with a gradual increase in humidity through
midweek. Moisture drawn northward along the eastern sides of Nolo
will increase rain chances across the western part of the state.
Fire conditions will improve statewide over the next couple days
as winds weaken and humidity levels rise.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Kauai South.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kauai
Northwest Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Kauai Windward
Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-
Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward
Waters-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward
Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...JVC
FIRE WEATHER...Foster