159
FXHW60 PHFO 080142
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
342 PM HST Sun Jun 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trades will gradually weaken to moderate speeds by the
latter half of the week. Periodic showers will filter in on the
trade wind flow, mainly focusing over windward and mauka areas. By
next weekend, the background flow may become light enough to
support land and sea breeze development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Radar and visible satellite imagery show isolated to scattered
showers moving into windward and mauka areas across the state this
afternoon. A surface ridge extending over the region from the
northeast continues to supply very stable conditions across the
state, with the afternoon upper air soundings at Lihue and Hilo
showing strong inversions around 7,000 feet. Based on the upstream
cumulus, brief isolated to scattered showers will continue to be
ushered into windward and mauka areas under the inversion on the
breezy trades through the rest of the afternoon, with an uptick in
shower coverage expected overnight into Monday morning.

The surface ridge to the northeast of the state currently driving
breezy trades across the area will weaken slightly as it sags
south, then get pushed closer to the state through the week as a
series of lows move across the northern Pacific and a front
approaches the region from the northwest. This will cause the
trades to gradually ease through the week. Background winds may
become light enough by Friday to support land and sea breeze
development, bringing afternoon clouds and showers to leeward and
interior areas and partial clearing at night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to breezy trade winds are expected to continue through
Monday before gradually weakening midweek. Showers embedded within
the tradewind flow are primarily impacting windward and mountain
areas, with limited spillover into leeward areas. Brief MVFR
conditions are expected within showers while VFR prevails
elsewhere.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscurations is in effect for N thru E
sections of Kauai. These conditions may improve by the evening,
but overnight showers could once again prompt mountain
obscurations for windward and mountain areas of the state.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for mechanical turbulence downwind of
the mountains due to breezy trade winds, and this is expected to
continue through at least Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will remain anchored far northeast of the
islands through early this week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA),
remains in effect for the typical windy waters around Maui and
the Big Island. By the middle of this week, a ridge north of the
islands associated with the high will be weakened and depressed
southward. As a result, trades will drop further and allow the SCA
to be cancelled entirely Tuesday or Wednesday. As the ridge shifts
further south, it will eventually end up near the Hawaiian Islands
by Friday or Saturday, which will bring light and variable winds
across the area towards the end of the week.

Small long-period forerunners of the next south swell continue to
fill in this afternoon with energy centered in the 18 to 22
second bands along our nearshore buoys. Energy from this swell is
expected to peak late Monday into Tuesday and bump up surf to
slightly higher than the June average, but still below advisory
criteria. Expect this swell to fade through midweek. A smaller
pulse of south-southwest swell is due late Thursday and Friday,
and a more significant south-southwest swell is on track to arrive
next weekend, likely bringing advisory level surf by late Sunday
along south facing shores.

The combination of a large south-southwest swell coinciding with
the peak monthly tides will lead to significant wave runup across
areas of the shore that typically remain dry during the afternoon
high tide cycle from June 14th through around June 16th. Coastal
flooding is also expected across low-lying coastal roadways,
docks, boat ramps and other coastal infrastructure.

Small background energy from the west-northwest is possible over the
next several days from a former Typhoon in the West Pacific last
week. Rough surf along east-facing shores will remain around
seasonal average today, then slowly decline through the midweek as
trade winds ease. Surf will drop well below seasonal levels along
east facing shores by the end of the week as the trades dissipate.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...Kino