935
FXHW60 PHFO 080108
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
308 PM HST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light trades give way to southerly winds during midweek. A cold
front will bring a brief round of showers to Kauai through Oahu
before stalling just west or possibly over Maui County. The front
then dissipates as it lifts north late this week. Winds generally
hold out of the south through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Blocking high pressure anchored over the western Aleutians favors
a southward-displaced Pacific jet through the forecast period.
This in turn favors a tendency for low pressure to develop
near/west of the islands with more frequent opportunities for
rainfall. In the near term, light to moderate trades will usher
existing moisture west of the islands tonight bringing an end to
organized shower activity that has focused over windward and mauka
areas today, particularly those of Maui and the Big Island.

Deepening mid-level troughing east of the Dateline then elicits
upstream pressure falls that wipe out the local pressure gradient
causing light SE/S winds to be variable at times through mid-week.
Afternoon sea breezes may have just enough moisture to produce
pockets of light showers over island interiors, but generally
speaking moisture remains limited and dry mid-level air will
provide a firm capping inversion throughout this time. This trough
triggers a low amplitude frontal wave north of the islands that
helps sweep a shallow cold front into the area that will reach
Kauai on Wednesday night and Oahu on Thursday before stalling
near or over Maui County. Light southerlies may deliver pockets of
leeward showers upon the approach of the front, but the bulk of
rainfall will focus windward and mauka, especially over Kauai
where the building northerly gradient will be strongest. A very
weak gradient over Oahu suggests potential for afternoon sea
breezes to capitalize on the frontal moisture band Thursday
afternoon. This would favor increased afternoon showers, but the
outcome will be very sensitive to strength of modest background
winds.

Strong consensus exists among the suite of global models that the
Pacific jet will continue to sink southward during the forecast
period bringing potential for another frontal passage over the
western portion of the state early next week.
&&

.AVIATION...

This afternoon, moisture embedded within moderate trade winds has
continued to support low clouds with occasional showers for north
through east sections of the islands of Maui County and the Big
Island. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for these
areas, but conditions are expected to improve tonight as an upper
trough that is currently over the state moves southeast and drier
air settles over the region.

Drier conditions are expected into Monday, with light to moderate
background trade wind flow continuing. Winds will weaken further
and begin to veer southeasterly on Monday night into Tuesday as a
front approaches closer to the islands from the northwest.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate upper level turbulence
across the island chain. This area of turbulence associated with
an upper-level jet is expected to move southeast tonight, with
moderate turbulence decreasing over the state on Monday.


&&

.MARINE...

An area of high pressure will remain north of the Hawaii region,
producing gentle to moderate easterly winds through Monday, then
decreasing and veering more southeasterly to southerly Tuesday to
Wednesday as another cold front moves into the region from the
northwest. This front may move into the western Hawaiian islands
late Wednesday into Thursday, then diminish by Friday.

The current medium-period north-northwest (340-350 degree) swell
will continue to slowly fade into Monday, bringing surf back down
to below average levels for this time of year. The next two long
to medium-period overlapping northwest (310-320 degree) swells
will arrive on Monday, boosting surf along north and west facing
shores and possibly reaching marginal advisory levels by Wednesday.

Choppy east shore surf will remain small, then decline further
over the next few days as trades gradually ease. Expect minimal
background energy for south facing shores, keeping south shore
surf heights just above flat levels.

The peak monthly tides are no longer predicted to cause coastal
flooding issues, so the Coastal Flood Statement was cancelled
earlier today after the morning high tide cycle.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions remain below critical fire thresholds through the week
as winds remain light and RH elevated. Winds further ease as the
week progresses, eventually transitioning to southerly.
&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Vaughan
MARINE...TS
FIRE WEATHER...JVC