Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
014 FXHW60 PHFO 040631 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 831 PM HST Tue Nov 3 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy trade winds will prevail through much of the week as surface high pressure holds north of the state. Pockets of moisture moving in the trades will focus rainfall over windward and mauka areas with showers briefly passing over leeward areas. An area of deeper moisture may enhance showers on windward Big Island Friday and Saturday. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... A band of low level clouds with scattered showers is moving across the state this evening. Rainfall totals for the past 3 hours range from 0.73 to 0.27 inches mainly for windward Kauai and Oahu with leeward amounts ranging from 0.10 to 0.20 as some light to moderate showers spill over. Forecast remains on track with this area of low level moisture shifting south towards Maui County and the Big Island with showers mainly focusing over windward and mauka areas overnight through early morning Wednesday. No changes changes were made to the forecast. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM HST Tue Nov 3 2026 Breezy and stable trade winds continue this afternoon. Robust high pressure several hundred miles north of the state is driving the trade winds, and mid to upper level ridging building overhead from the north is producing an inversion based between 6,000 to 7,500 feet. Under these stable conditions, showers have been largely confined to windward slopes where generally less than one quarter of an inch of rainfall has been observed today. Shower activity will increase tonight within the breezy trade wind flow. A band of shallow moisture will fill in across windward Kauai and Oahu through the remainder of the afternoon and likely drift southward to Maui overnight. Some of these showers will periodically spill over to leeward areas on the strong trades, though rainfall totals will be modest due to the stable conditions. Little change is expected through at Thursday. Trades will remain breezy as a surface ridge holds to the north, and additional pockets of moisture will focus showers over windward and mauka areas. Some increase rainfall is likely for Friday and Saturday, mainly across windward Big Island. The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate a high chance of tropical cyclone development far southeast of the state within a few days. Guidance suggests that any tropical cyclone would have a high chance of passing well south of the islands, but the GFS and ECMWF are showing a broad field of deep moisture along the flanks of this feature moving over windward Big Island. The models differ slightly on the timing of the increased moisture. The GFS is running about 12 hours faster than the ECMWF by increasing showers as early as Friday morning and clearing the moisture Saturday. A tropical cyclone passing to the south could also lead to a period of stronger trade winds this weekend, though confidence in that possibility is low at this time. && .AVIATION... Breezy trades expected for next few days. Low cigs and SHRA will continue over windward and mauka locations with some spillover into leeward areas. MVFR conds in SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for the smaller islands and windward Big Island. Conds should improve mid morning. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod turb lee of terrain and should remain in effect for next few days. && .MARINE... Fresh to strong trade winds will persist for most of the week across most coastal waters as high pressure remains in place north of the region. While winds may decrease to fresh speeds across some northern zones on Thursday, an incoming northwest swell is likely to produce 10 ft seas across portions of the coastal waters, thus Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions will likely persist across many zones throughout the week. Additionally, from Thursday through early this weekend, a broad area of low pressure with high potential to develop into a tropical cyclone according to National Hurricane Center forecasts will approach and pass south of the islands, potentially enhancing winds over far southeast waters. Surf along north- and west-facing shores will continue to decrease through Wednesday as a moderate, north-northwest swell fades and shifts more northerly, though another small long period north- northwest reinforcement arrives tonight. Another more significant moderate, long-period northwest swell will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday morning and will likely push north and west shore surf to advisory levels for Thursday into Friday. An additional medium-period swell moderate swell is expected to fill in on Saturday, likely prolonging moderate to large surf action into the weekend. A compact fetch of gales passing east of New Zealand last week Friday should produce some waves slightly above average around Friday into Saturday. East- facing shores will see continued moderate trade wind swell as strong northeast winds remain. Surf along east- facing shores will stay elevated and choppy through much of the week with the gusty trades. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 814 PM HST Tue Nov 3 2026 Breezy winds during the next several days will produce moderate fire weather conditions since recent rainfall has likely limited the widespread availability of receptive fuels. The inversion near Big Island will range from 6000 to 8000 ft over the next few days. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...Almanza DISCUSSION...Wroe AVIATION...Walsh MARINE...Kino