745
FXHW60 PHFO 271343
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
343 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands
will continue to produce moderate to breezy trade winds through
today with periods of showers favoring windward mountain areas in
the overnight and early morning hours. Hurricane Fausto remains
on track to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and
Wednesday as a tropical storm. A drier and breezy trade wind
weather pattern will return across the state from Thursday onward
as Fausto drifts westward away from the Hawaiian Islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Currently (3am), satellite and radar imagery shows low clouds and
scattered showers moving in on the trades. Showers are primarily
impacting windward and mauka spots with a few showers making into
leeward locations. High pressure northwest of the state will
maintain trades today.

East of the state Hurricane Fausto continues moving west-northwest.
Fausto is expected to track north of the state Tuesday into
Wednesday. The environment ahead of Fausto grows more unfavorable
on approach to the islands and we expect it to weaken into a
tropical storm before arrival in the vicinity of the Hawaiian
Islands. That said, we remain cautious at this stage that even
subtle southern shifts in the track or delayed weakening trends
may still produce changes to our island by island impacts. We
strongly encourage the public to pay close attention to this
passing storm system as weather impacts over the Hawaiian Islands
will evolve the closer Fausto gets.

High confidence Fausto impacts include: high surf possibly above
warning thresholds for east facing shores today through Tuesday.
A High Surf Advisory is already in effect for east facing shores
through Wednesday, with the possibility of an upgrade to a
warning. Lesser confidence impacts include: strong winds to
around 40 mph may develop near and north of the low center and
possible heavy rain threats from Tuesday through Wednesday.

No time like the present to review your family hurricane preparedness
plans, and ensure every household has at least a 14 day supply of
food and water available if needed during this years active hurricane
season.

As Fausto continues to move away from the state, a drier and more
stable breezy trade wind pattern will fill in from Thursday
onward.

&&

.AVIATION...

Trades will weaken slightly and back towards the northeast
today. Low cigs and SHRA possible over windward and mauka
locations with some limited spillover into leeward areas. MVFR
conds likely in heavier SHRA but VFR should prevail. Hurricane
Fausto is east of the state moving WNW and is expected to pass to
the north Tuesday into Wednesday. An increase in SHRA and some low
cigs will be likely. TC SIGMET Sierra covers Fausto.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of
the smaller islands. Conds may improve in the early morning hours.
As Fausto approaches this could be expanded or become an IFR
AIRMET.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod low-level turb downwind of
island terrain. This AIRMET may likely be dropped this afternoon
as winds continue to decline.

&&

.MARINE...

An overnight ASCAT pass revealed that locally breezy trade winds
continue to prevail over the region, especially in the typically
winder waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island.
Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for these
areas through this afternoon. The fresh to locally breezy trades
will gradually shift to the NNE and diminish through the middle of
the week in response to what is currently Hurricane Fausto
passing north of the islands. However, it is likely that the Small
Craft Advisory will need to be expanded due to seas greater than
10 feet for windward waters. The trades will then return to fresh
and strong levels late this week into the weekend as the remnants
of Fausto continue off to the west-northwest away from the state
and strong high pressure builds to the north.

The current long-period south swell will slowly decline for the
next couple of days. The High Surf Advisory has been cancelled
for south facing shores based on the latest buoy trends and
guidance, though some borderline advisory-level surf cannot be
ruled out at select top spots along south shores early this
morning.

East facing shores will continue to support rough, choppy surf
due to the locally breezy trade winds. Additionally, nearshore
buoys on the eastern side of the islands have begun to show the
long period forerunners of the new easterly swell. A High Surf
Advisory for east facing shores is currently in effect through
Wednesday afternoon. However, as energy from Hurricane Fausto
builds, surf along east facing shores could reach warning levels
by tonight through early Wednesday. A Coastal Flood statement may
be also be needed during the peak of the large surf for vulnerable
low-lying coastal roadways, docks, boat ramps, and other coastal
infrastructure exposed to the large east swell. After a brief lull
late Wednesday through Thursday, east shore surf will trend back
up Friday into the weekend due to a combination of rising trade
wind swell and a new long period east swell generated by Hurricane
Genevieve.

Surf along N shores could also see some brief increase as Fausto
(or its remnants) pass near the region Tuesday and Wednesday, then
return to typical flat to tiny levels late Wednesday into the
weekend.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Olomana-Maui
Windward West-Kauai East-East Honolulu-Koolau Windward-Molokai
Windward-Molokai Southeast-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-Big
Island Southeast-Big Island East-Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Walsh
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Vaughan